South Korean sinking speculation thread!
- Thread starter barkhauer
- Start date
Bullethead
Storm Eagle Studios
As best I can tell at the moment, there's no confirmation as to anything, whether it be a self-produced accident or a hit by anything, let alone in a specific place. The latest news I get (from the South Koreans' own rumor mill) is that satellites show no sign of anything hitting the ship. The current hunch is that it was an accident. Must have had RN cordite aboard leftover from WW1 :smoke:
That said, IF the explosion occurred aft, that doesn't rule out a mine. Modern mines can lie on the bottom and go off from a variety of causes, plus they can launch torps, so there are a variety of ways a mine could hit the stern of a ship.
feld
Member
Rear impact doesn't neccessarily rule out a mine. When Hatsuse struck a mine on 15 May 1904 it was her port main engine room and her steering engine compartment that were flooding. I'm not sure where they were exactly but I'd guess astern somewhere.
See here for a simple figure (that I think is from Jane's).
v/r
feld
See here for a simple figure (that I think is from Jane's).
v/r
feld
JebUSMC
Member
Just because they are ruling out a torpedo hit doesn't mean it wasn't a torpedo or some other form of attack. The North has lots of reasons for attacking a South Korean ship. They made threats to do just that not more than two weeks before this situation. The North Korean navy suffered losses against the South's navy a couple years ago and almost certainly vowed revenge. I know almost anything can happen with that much explosive stored on a ship but from what video I saw of the ship sinking, the break in the hull was well forward from where I'd suspect the aft magazine would be. Could a CODOG failure cause a ship like this to break in two? I've seen uncontained disc failures on turbine engined aircraft but none of those would suggest enough force to split a ship and I'm almost certain shipboard installations are heavier with more protection against such things. Now, a fuel vapor explosion from Jet A could. I don't know about the fuel used by ships but if it had a pinhole in a fuel line filling a compartment with fuel mist you'd probably get a nice boom as soon as a high enough concentration found an ignition source. Sorry for the long ramble.
feld
Member
I am not a CODOG sailor but my guess would be "no". The diesel fuel is pretty inert as such things go - hard to ignite. Heck, you can put out a cigarette in marine diesel. The "gas" for the turbine portion is more explosive. I believe in the US Navy it's typically JP-5 (jet airplane fuel) but a "fuel-air" mist like the one you describe seems like it would be unlikely to form without very specific conditions in the engine room.
v/r
feld
JebUSMC
Member
South Korean officials are now saying it was an external explosion. Looks like a torpedo, though could still be a mine.
Vinnie
See Dummies in the index
If the explosion was at the rear of the ship, why is the bow shrouded and the stern intact?
JebUSMC
Member
That's the stern section, Vinnie. The rest of the ship is still on the bottom. The break is what is shrouded. The break is a little aft of amidships but not by much. Kinda resembles what happens to older ships during a torpex.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Mark_48_Torpedo_testing.jpg
Keep in mind that this frigate is a little larger than the Cheonan.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Mark_48_Torpedo_testing.jpg
Keep in mind that this frigate is a little larger than the Cheonan.
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Bullethead
Storm Eagle Studios
Remember the Maine!
Saint Istvan
Member
I read in the paper today that the latest thinking is that it was a North Korean suicide team on human torpedoes.
Seeing that picture I had to redact my earlier tip (I probably fell for the initially strong ROK dissuasion of nork wrongdoing), now my money is on a Korean fired (or laid as mine Captor style) passive accoustic homing Chinese made Yu-2 or Yu-4A torpedo. The break is just near the aft bulkhead of the engineering room. If the ship didn't cavitate too much at the time of the explosion this is where the most noise should be generated.
I'm guessing we can rule out coal dust.
Bullethead
Storm Eagle Studios
Hmmm. Seems unlikely against a moving ship at sea. In port, sure--folks have been doing that since WW1. But at sea?
But which Korea?
I was just remembering that the initial inquest into Maine's loss said the 1st explosion was external, and the Dogs of War were loosed, but later on they decided it had been an interal affair. Something about coal spontaneously combusting (as it often does) next to a thin bulkhead, on the other side of which was a pile of ammunition.I'm guessing we can rule out coal dust.
JebUSMC
Member
If I remember correctly, the USN used a British pattern cordite too. One little bang from coal dust could very easily make a big bang from cordite.
JebUSMC
Member
The forward half is up. Definately looks like a torpedo hit amidships from what I'm seeing. She split nearly perfectly into two halves.
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article409041.ece
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article409041.ece
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Bullethead
Storm Eagle Studios
Yup, there's not really any other good explanation.
So, what other info can we draw from this? I can't find anything specific about the scene of the incident, but I think I can make some decent guesses.
I would assume that the area around where the ship went down is considered fairly safe under normal circumstances. Otherwise, I don't think the South Koreans would be able to mount such a large-scale salvage operation so quickly after the event. Also, while the position of the border itself might be disputed, there are areas immediately adjacent on both sides that nobody seriously argues about. I would suspect that the salvage operation itself indicates that the ship went down in what North Korea tacitly concedes to be, as a practical matter, South Korean territory, no matter what they might say about it. Otherwise, I'd expect the North Korean navy to be out there contesting South Korea's operation and trying to salvage the ship itself.
These inferrences would appear to rule out several possible scenarios. I doubt the ship was looking for trouble by going into an area that South Korea generally concedes as North Korean territory. I also doubt that the ship blundered into a friendly minefield, or that a friendly minefield was laid in the wrong place (which both seem unlikely anyway in this age of satellite navigation). So, what seems to have happened is that a North Korean mine or sub got into an area generally considered reasonably safe South Korean territory. That in itself raises a bunch of questions.
Von der Tann
Schlachtkreuzer
I really wonder what's behind it, especially since the German media hardly mentions it. The North Korean military and government are a crazy bunch to begin with, and what's worse, their leaders don't look at the world the way most sensible people do. They think along the lines of marxist-leninist-stalinist-juché-idiocy and the complete nonsense built on it, so there might be some reason no-one outside the North Korean nomenclature would think of that easily.