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Do you think it's possible that the Germans could have been victorious in the East and defeated the Russians? After all they did very well for a long time, often against superior odds.
Completely agree. Germans take Moscow, the odds of political collaspe goes up significantly. I don't know if they could have controlled all of the Soviet Union, but wouldn't have surprised me to see some kind of Vichy type split of Russia between the East and Western Russia.There are a few different pieces involved with "could they have won?" It starts with the obvious, yet profound question "how would one win the war?" Winning isn't always a matter of "taking objectives x,y,z", but can also be a matter of bringing a nation to a state of political collapse. In 1941, the Germans hit the Russians with an incredible sequence of body blows. The Russians lost an incredible amount of men, material and the like. However, the power of the political center (Stalin and his government) remained viable, and so they were able to rally the resources necessary to take the war to the Germans.
Further, there are times where a nation can fall to the collapse of the "national will" (for lack of a better term). Think of it is a catastrophic collapse of national morale. Germany in 1918, or France in 1914 are good examples of that.
Could the Germans have brought the Russians to that sort of collapse? I believe so. I think it was a severely uphill climb, but it may well have been possible. Sure, the Tsar was able to abandon Moscow in 1812, but could Stalin have survived abandoning Moscow in 1941? Yes, much industry was moved, such and so, but the morale hit (not to mention the losses in transportation, remaining industry and population), would have directly challenged the legitimacy of his government.
That said, I don't think that the Germans could have won the war after November 1941. Once Russia "got their feet under them", Germany had lost its only real chance.
Considering the number of Russians that fought on the side of the Germans, it's not unreasonable to speculate that some sort of split like the one you describe could have been possible. And let's not forget the perception of these two leaders. Hitler was practically worshiped by a large percentage of Germans, and his followers were true believers in that they were willing to fight on even when there seemed to be no hope. Stalin, on the other hand, was widely hated, even by those closest to him. His was a rule based on fear and fear alone. If the Soviet government had been driven from Moscow, it seems entirely possible that the entire Soviet system might have collapsed.I don't know if they could have controlled all of the Soviet Union, but wouldn't have surprised me to see some kind of Vichy type split of Russia between the East and Western Russia.
Will do. Thanks. Care to share some of the arguments?Dave68124 - Read Glantz's first book of his Stalingrad trilogy. After that you will know why winning in 1942 was not possible.
Basically after you read the book, you'll see that the Germans couldn't rebuild their forces to full strength and couldn't keep them fueled. Meanwhile the Russians had plenty of reserves and kept feeding them into battle.Will do. Thanks. Care to share some of the arguments?
When did they do this? Aside from never. Maybe 1915-1917.The fact that the Germans were able to fight a two front war (really three) as successfully and for as long as they did speaks volumes.
Hard to disagree, Don. But we are all "what-iff-ing" extremely, when asking ourselves the question "could they". Sure, we can add "luck" factor and so forth, but with luck, Russians could even invade Germany in 1941 - Hitler and General Staff dying of heart attack, Wehrmacht disobeying orders, USA declaring war with Grofaz in June and opening second frontline... Even Kiev pocket would not be succesfull if Guderian would not get in time, maybe whole south-central German sector could be then encircled and destroyed. We do not have many more choices than looking on whole of this as from the view of a static wargamer.I'm not sure I buy that. The Soviets certainly scored a great victory by stopping the Germans in late 1941, but at tremendous cost. And they were hardly fully recovered by the time the Germans were ready to resume offensive operations in 1942.
Nothing is certain in war. If you look at the Vietnam War from a purely military perspective, the situation appears utterly hopeless from the North Vietnamese point of view. They are tremendously outgunned, outclassed, and generally outnumbered in every way that matters on a modern battlefield. They should have lost the war in spectacular fashion. Yet they did not, largely due to the "friction of war" and the vast number of variables that make every military venture an unpredictable and dangerous undertaking. Real war is not like war gaming, where every factor can be boiled down to reasonably predictable variables which determine success or failure. Sometimes even a force with overwhelming military resources and solid morale can failscade due to brilliant strategy on the part of an aggressive enemy, extreme bad luck, or being hit at exactly the right time and place.
The Soviet Union was a tyranny held together by fear and brutal repression. The fact that the Germans were unable to overcome the Soviets due to the choices they made does not mean it was impossible to do so.
Maybe, but agree with Don. Had the Germans even simply pursued different policies in the Baltics and Ukraine, I think at the worst, they could have set off an internal civil war in the Soviet Union. But the population was just saddled with another oppressor and better to go with the devil you know.You can get thrown by Geography sometimes. The way you win a war is by destroying the enemies ability to prosecute it successfully. Destroy his armies and the geography will follow.
The Soviets had a great advantage of space to reteat into and this allowed them time to rebuild and rearm. If the Germans had destroyed the Soviet Armies of 1943 could the Soviets have rebuilt yet again? I'm not so sure.
However I don't think destroying these armies were ever in the capabilities of the German amy.