PUZZLES #3

[mglouie]

Matt Wrote:

But fire _could_ HoB and auto-rally the broken German squad, which would allow the berzerk unit to potentially eliminate it in CC and regain GO status by turn end.

Yes - that is possible but HIGHLY unlikely.

The point of these puzzles is to find a solution which has a reasonable (read - better than average) chance of acheiving the correct result. These are not like chess end-game type puzzles where there may be a strict absolute solution (because chess is not probabillity based).

Sorry Fred, I never said the point was to find the most lilkely result. Any result will do. :wink:

Of course the more likely a result, the better your chance of success. And if you can try more then one result your odds increase even more.

 

[Brian W]

Of course the more likely a result, the better your chance of success. And if you can try more then one result your odds increase even more.

So, you said that there were two ways; is this the second?

 

[Hubbs5]

I guess I am not understanding my misreading of Rule A 11.15. "Also" to me implies that they would be held in melee in both situations, while I believe you are saying that they wouldn't, correct? Not trying to be antagonistic just trying to better understand the rules. BTW thanks for the puzzles, they help improve my knowledge of the game.[/quote]

 

[Patton1138]

RE:

How about this:

PF the big guns on the German's hex. It rubbles the hex (a CH may be needed, I believe), killing off the German. This in turn frees up the Berzerk MMC. In the MPh he then occupies the building. This is sort of playing off of a previous answer given, except here, the tank isn't moving. He simply pounds the building to rubble. Thus, the problem of the Berzerk MMC moving first is solved.

 

[mglouie]

Hubbs,

He 'can' be held in Melee by the tank, 'but' only 'after' the CC phase which in this case there wouldn't be becuase the squad would either rout away or die for failure to rout away. You imply that the Melee would be automatic once the tank enters the hex, it wouldn't.

Glad you like them!

 

[mglouie]

Re: RE:

How about this:

PF the big guns on the German's hex. It rubbles the hex (a CH may be needed, I believe), killing off the German. This in turn frees up the Berzerk MMC. In the MPh he then occupies the building. This is sort of playing off of a previous answer given, except here, the tank isn't moving. He simply pounds the building to rubble. Thus, the problem of the Berzerk MMC moving first is solved.

I don't think it's possible to rubble the hex even with a CH. Check out C3.73

Matt's answer is good, but there is a HOB result that gives you a better chance.

 

[Matt Romey]

Re: RE:

Matt's answer is good, but there is a HOB result that gives you a better change.

I just realized that if the German squad only Battle Hardens from the HoB result, then he can still VB and route away... denying GO status to the Berzerker. But, if a hero is created, then he'll be stuck there. OR if the German guy goes berzerk, then he can't VB.

The best result for the Russian is if the German squad Surrenders on the HoB result, then one of the SMCs can take him and the Berzerker will be GO at the end of his "charge," due to no KEU in LOS.

Can I take a bow now?

Actually, I think the rubbling the building with the tank answer was trickier than this, but the way the puzzle was worded made me overlook it at first.

 

[Patton1138]

I think the Surrender answer wins. That's what I thought of when he said it was a HoB result.

 

[mglouie]

ANSWER

ANSWER

The tank driving into the celler and having the crew survive is one option.

German HOB is the next.

Unless I missing something, the Berserk squad will charge the last know location that had a unit in it, from there he'll see the German squad that surrendered and continue his charge. So, the surrender method will not work here. The Hero creation gives the Russians the best chance to win.

Nice job everyone!

 

[Patton1138]

According to A15.431, if he gets to the hex and no one's there and there's no other KEU, he stops there and loses the Berzerk at the end of that phase. So, surrender should work well, too.

 

[Brian W]

Re: ANSWER

The Hero creation gives the Russians the best chance to win.

Hmm, the celler is a 16.67% chance followed by a 41.67% chance. A hero creation requires first a MC result (8+2) at 41.67% followed by a 2.78% of a HOB DR, followed by a 41.67% chance of getting a hero (HOB DR of <6), preferably without BH the squad (16.67%) as you wouldl then be facing at best a 1:1 -1 in CC. So, if everything goes right and you get the hero by itself, you will have a 72.22% of killing the hero and a 4.61% of killing him due to wounding.

I think that gives you an estimated likelihood of .37% of that happening disounting the possibility that the hero kills the beserker. The celler gives at least odds of 6.94%, discounting the possiblility of two celler attempts. This also discounts a possible tank attack against the broken squad and its resulting chances of creating HOB. In any case, it is at best the sum of the probablility of each of three attacks creating a hero, so the sum could not be more than 3*2.78 and coupled with the TEM and HOB DR is much lower.

At least I think as statistics are not my forte. So the celler gambit is much more likely to work.

 

[mglouie]

The Hero is the best of the HOB options.

 

[mglouie]

According to A15.431, if he gets to the hex and no one's there and there's no other KEU, he stops there and loses the Berzerk at the end of that phase. So, surrender should work well, too.

Doh! I forgot the broken squad would turn into a prisoner counter. Berserkers don't charge prisoners.

 

[Brian W]

According to A15.431, if he gets to the hex and no one's there and there's no other KEU, he stops there and loses the Berzerk at the end of that phase. So, surrender should work well, too.

Doh! I forgot the broken squad would turn into a prisoner counter. Berserkers don't charge prisoners.

NQ is in effect, so a Surrender result would be Beserk instead. Also, I am not sure that a prisoner squad would not be charged if no other enemy unit was in LOS. That is an interesting question.

 

[mglouie]

Good call Brian,

I knew there was a reason surrender wouldn't work. :wink:

The rulebook says Berserkers don't charge prisoners.

Anyway, good answers all around, great discussion on this puzzle.