Firepower odds question

[klsmith]

This is a question I ponder frequently:

Let's say you have a German 468 and a 548 ready to Prep Fire.

Both the 468 and the 548 are adjacent to the same Russian 527.
Additionally, the German 548 is adjacent to a different Russian 527. Both Russians are in a stone building.

All things being equal, would it be better to take one 18fp (16 column) at one 527 OR would it be better for each German to shoot at a different 527 (each on the 8 column).

Meaning 1 shot at 1 unit with 11 (+3 drm) to pin, or 2 shots at 2 units with 9 (+3 drm) to pin?

I elected to go for the 2 on 1 shot in the real thing, and then rolled an 11, so it didn't matter anyway (except that I wasted a lot of time thinking about it). What do you think would've been best?

TIA

Ken

 

[SamB]

In each of these cases, the ultimate "best" solution can be found by calculating the odds.... of course you have to define "success". I ususally look at the odds of getting a NMC or better - and define that as success. Of course, in some situations you need to KIA the guy...

However, my "rule of thumb" is that you take several smaller attacks. UNLESS the target is in +3 or better terrain - AND you can add enough additional Fire Power to really bump up the odds. Also -don't- combine the attacks is adding the unit adds a DRM to the attack.

In this particular case, I'd probably have taken seperate attacks. On the 8FP column with +3 TEM, you need a 5 for a NMC. On the 16 +3 attack you need a 7 or less. I'd rather take two chances to roll low than one.

 

[jimfer]

odds and situation

Ken,
It is very hard to determine which table to use if we do not know the situation. Is it early in a game, last turn, victory conditions(building control vs CVP) and other need to know information. All these can change the shot taken or not taken.
Jim Ferrell

 

[Brian W]

All things being equal, would it be better to take one 18fp (16 column) at one 527 OR would it be better for each German to shoot at a different 527 (each on the 8 column).

As others have said, it depends on your situation in the game. However, here are my rules of thumb (in order of importance):

1) Never combine attacks when negative net modifiers are in play
2) As modifiers get higher, combine attacks
3) Always keep in mind the table jumps of KIA reults-- it jumps up between the 1 and 2 tables, the 4 and 6 tables, the 12 and 16 tables, the 20 and 24 tables, and then each table is a jump. In other words, I would normally take one 16 FP attack over a 12 FP and a 4 FP attack.
4) Keep in mind your opponant's SAN--if the DR you need to cause an effect is lower than the SAN, think long and hard about taking the shot.

 

[Chris Milne]

I'll avoid repeating most of the above (which seems like good advice to me).

I'd have probably gone with the 2 8FP attacks myself. You've a good chance of getting a result on an 8+3. If it had been a choice between a single 8+3 attack and 2 4+3 attacks, I'd have gone for the single attack.

But, of course, everything depends...

 

[Brian W]

You've a good chance of getting a result on an 8+3.

Actually, you have a small chance of getting a result on an 8+3. The odds of getting any result (i.e. forcing your opponant to roll his dice) are ~42%, and then the best you can get is a 1MC. The odds of getting any kind of MC are only 28%. Of course with two attempts at rolling the dice, the odds increase. But, they are still short of the odds of causing a MC with one 16+3 attack, and the likelihood of a 1MC (and even a 2MC) are much higher with one 16+3.

Finally, it may simply be necessary to pin the defending russian squad. In that case, the two 8+3 attacks are probably the better choice, although I think I would need my calculater to be sure

Under normal circumstances I would be taking one 16+3 over two 8+3 shots.

 

[Larry]

Comparing one attack versus two attacks depends on the original DR necessary. In the case of two 8FP +3 attacks, the odds of the original DR coming out less than or equal to a 5 is 27.8%. The odds of getting a 7 or less on the 16 FP +3 is 58.3%. Comparing those two numbers gives some, but not complete, insight into the answer.

In the 16 FP +3 attack, the odds of getting a result that is PTC or NE is 41.7%. Simple enough.

The two 8 FP +3 attacks will both fail 52% of the time, one get an MC or better 40.8% of the time, and both get an MC or getter 40.8% of the time. Comparing the 52% no effect probability of two attacks against the 41.7% probability of no effect with one attack suggests that one attack is better in this situation.

Compare the opportunity to attack a unit in OG with two 2FP attacks or one FG at 4 FP. Each 2 FP attack has a 27.8% chance of success. In 52.1% of the attacks, both 2 FP attacks will have no effect. In 7.7% of the cases, both will cause a MC or better. Compare that to the 4FP attack; success 41.7% of the time and failure to cause at least a MC 58.3% of the time. Because the frank odds of getting at least one MC is better with two 2 FP attacks, that is the better attack. But if the attack choices are combining into a FG two 3 FP squads, the odds suggest that the better attack is a single 6 FP attack rather than two 2 FP attacks (chance of NE or PTC only drops to 41.7%).

It is not the column on which you roll that is critical. Nor is the presence of + or - DRM dispositive. It is the original DR needed for a particular result that matters most.

 

[Anonymous]

Well this all depends..

Are you using the VASL Dice BOT?

 

[AnewNewbie]

Oh God,here we go again.

 

[Chris Milne]

The two 8 FP +3 attacks will both fail 52% of the time, one get an MC or better 40.8% of the time, and both get an MC or getter 40.8% of the time. Comparing the 52% no effect probability of two attacks against the 41.7% probability of no effect with one attack suggests that one attack is better in this situation.

Eh? Apart from the fact that you're not compounding probability, a 8+3 will have no effect on 61.1% of occasions (including cowering). If you then factor in the chances of the 7 morale target passing its MC/PTC, that increases to 77%.

Compound it all up, and the single 16+3 attack will cause a break 33% of the time, a pin 13% of the time, and no effect 54% of the time.

The two 8+3 attacks will cause at least one break 25% of the time, a pin (or double pin) 15% of the time, and no effect 60% of the time.


I think. Of course, I was originally comparing 2 8FP attacks to a single 12FP attack...