#### seh

##### Recruit

How do we come up with 33%? There are 4 ways to roll a 5 ([1,4], [2,3], [3,2], [4,1]), 5 ways to roll a 6 ([1,5], [2,4], [3,3], [4,2], [5,1]). Dropping from 5 to 4 is a 20% reduction. The IFT analysis at http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Congress/1418/waslift4.htm confirms these percentages.This shot reduces the German SAN to 5 for the duration of the scenario.

This may seem small, but the SAN reduction from 6 to 5 cuts the probability of activating the German sniper by 33%.In ASL you need to have an appreciation for the bell curve of rolling two six-sided dice.

Is this an error in the Example of Play or in my interpretation?