You just been clocking me.

[ibncalb]

I am closing nothing.

Thou Shalt Pass!

 

[BattleSchool]

...but if you can do data entry, Google is probably beyond you too

And you'd be right. A search for Ramsey's formula dredged up a farcical formula courtesy of Pitcavage.

Marc Blume does have a calculator from 2013 on his Alpenfestung site. It's similar, though slightly less refined than the one Michael Rodgers provided upthread. Marc concluded that roughly two-thirds "of all variability in playing times can be predicted by the Scenario Size." The remaining third could be attributed to the players involved and their environment.

Marc backed up his conclusion with a regression line, which I take to mean a line representative of estimated playing time (based on the 2013 calculator) in relation to where actual play times fell on the plot.

If correct, then there is a moderately positive correlation between estimated scenario time (based on raw scenario variables such as units and numbers of turns) and actual play time.

If a crude formula can produce this level of correlation, what would it take to nudge this correlation above 70%, into even more positive territory?

Edit: I plugged in the numbers for Nor Will Deep Hell Receive Them into Blume's calculator. (Blume credits Luke S and M Rogers [sic] for helping improve the calculator.) It spat out 6 hours and one minute, which tracks with the Archive estimate of 6 hours.

Recall that Michael Roger's formula that I tested earlier gave me just under 5 hours for the same scenario. The discrepancy isn't surprising considering that the Blume formula includes SMC, which are given the same weight as a squad. My gut tells me that even if one ignores the pre-game setup time (e.g., rubble/Debris generation), the scenario could easily run to 6 hours once one accounts for the additional reinforcements that need to be purchased and entered on 7 subsequent Player Turns! (While the units were factored into the equation, purchase-and-pull time wasn't.)

 

[bendizoid]

It is even less fair to insinuate that slow players would do just that.

Honestly, keeping this bull**** being repeated time and again by some people pisses me off.

von Marwitz

Touchy response from Mr Virtue Signaler, maybe you should take it down a notch. My (“some people”) intent was not to piss anybody off just talking about the topic at hand in a free manner. Super slow play is a bummer, that’s why we are talking about chess clocks here. Thats the way I feel. If that’s my fault so be it.

 

[Blaze]

Super slow play is a bummer

It can be if unexpected. One of my FTF opponents is the slowest player in all of ASLdom. It doesn't bother me because I expect it. The games are more so a social meeting with cooking and a lot of BSing involved. So, in one sense it's a controlled burn as I know what I'm getting into and it's a planned day. Saying that, he is the exception. If I am under constraints of time, then yes, I would be crawling out of my skin. If I was at a tourney playing a slow player, I would beat my head off the table to put myself out of my misery.

I play for fun and the social connections in the hobby. Of course I play to win, it is a competitive game after all.

As far as a clocked game, I would not enjoy it myself. Granted it would probably favor me as I'm a moderately-fast player.
The best way to avoid slow play is to avoid slow players. If it bothered me, I would avoid them.

 

[PresterJohn]

Cogitating a system (Active ASL) for use with smallish SK games (no veh) and a couple of sand timers. You get two minutes or so on a long timer to think about your next turn before the rally phase, then have to keep rolling dice and moving at a steady pace. If you stop shooting/moving, you have to turn over your short timer for your thinking time, but have to continue before it runs out. Potentially a movement rate of 30 sec per unit plus actual moving. You can have a pool of chits, probably one per OoB leader, to burn for extra thinking time. Thinking time limit applies to prep fire, then move, def fire, then routing, then advance etc.

Not suitable for beginners. May need to be adjusted with 30 sec, 60 second, 90 second, and two minute timers. This is meant to be a speed challenge for experienced SK players to get through a set of scenarios representing a match. No timers apply to looking up rules. Needs testing for setup times. More thought needed for vehicles.

 

[Michael R]

I believe the Archive time estimates do not take into account the arrival time of reinforcements. It acts as if they are on board for the whole game.

You used my spreadsheet the same way I do for half turns; one side gets more turns in the spreadsheet than the other. I don't know what the Archive does in that situation.

Of course my spreadsheet is more geared to my speed of play or maybe my intended goal in speed of play. I started with David Goldman's spreadsheet which had less time per unit and I think it did not count SMC.

 

[BattleSchool]

I believe the Archive time estimates do not take into account the arrival time of reinforcements. It acts as if they are on board for the whole game.

You used my spreadsheet the same way I do for half turns; one side gets more turns in the spreadsheet than the other. I don't know what the Archive does in that situation.

Of course my spreadsheet is more geared to my speed of play or maybe my intended goal in speed of play. I started with David Goldman's spreadsheet which had less time per unit and I think it did not count SMC.

Glad to see that I grokked how to treat "half-turns."

I think reinforcements should be placed in the earliest turn line in which they can possibly appear. It's a compromise, but not a big one IMO.

I favour the addition of SMC to the calculation. An SMC adds a little extra time, but no more than a HS or squad already does.

I didn't realize that you'd built your sheet for your speed. Although I haven't tested other scenarios, I suspect that your outputs will remain close to those of the Archive. And if I'm right, adding an extra 10% to the total should suffice for most slower players in a tourney. IOW, adding roughly 30 minutes to a "6-hour scenario" should ensure that, more often than not, a scenario would finish in the time allotted.

The same calculations would be useful for assessing whether a scenario with heavy rules overhead is a good fit, or for more leisurely evening play with a hard stop.