VASL dice bot...

SamB

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The question remains, however, that given such a flaw indeed exists, will it have an impact on an ASL scenario or CG? I can't answer that one, but annecdotal information and persnal experience suggests that it can.
Then look at my five sets of DRs and tell me which ones were generated by hand and which were generated by the Dice Bot.

Much of the discussion was over my head too... But if there is a serious flaw with the dice bot - as many have stated, over and over... then they should be able to look at the sets of DRs and tell me which are not "random".

A game of ASL might have 150-200 DRs, perhaps much less. For the supposed flaw to have an impact on the game it must be apparent in a relatively few DRs.

Odd swings of DRs - 2 followed by 12's. strings of 2's and 3's, etc. can adn DO occure with real dice. Looking at a hundred or two hundred DRs and stating that there is a problem is nothing short of superstition, IMO. Prove me wrong - tell us all which of the sets of DRs are generated by hand.

Sam
 

SamB

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You give 5 sets of rolls--one can't tell a thing from that, especially not which ones were created by which RNG.
And my point is that you can't tell me the dice bot is flawed because of your experience in a few dozen games.

Here's the bottom line. IF there is a problem with the dice bot then prove it. This isn't rocket science.

But if you just continue to say that the dice bot is flawed because you've "seen" it. You are doing nothing more than contributing to superstition.

Is there a "perfect" random number generator? I don't think so. But even a "fair" random number generator (by today's standards) is probably (almost certianly) OK for a game like ASL where there are 100 or 200 rolls.

And at least with dice, I feel I have some "control" over the situation--I can shake them harder, I can fuss at them, I can change them--I can't do that with the VASSAL dicebot.
If you think the random number generator is flawed and you want to do something to affect it, then save your game. Exit VASL and restart the program. That will re-seed and re-start everything. BTW, your DRs are being calculated on YOUR machine. So you can restart even if your opponent doesn't.

But, I still say its supersition. Like talking to your dice, or not letting your opponent touch your dice, etc.

Sam
 

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Is there a random number generator anywhere that has proved itself above suspicion? (I have no real technical competence so I ask with the full knowledge of being an innocent in such matters). I suspect that the sequences of rolls which cause consternation when seen on VASL would be met with a shrug of the shoulders when replicated in a ftf game. I am sure I have suffered from the vagaries of the dice gods equally in both ftf and online play.
It is true, however, that I feel much more embarassed when I benefit from a run of beneficial rolls in vasl than in ftf, particularly if playing someone I don't know, simply because I can't stand the idea that they might think I was cheating.
Having said that, is it possible to cheat with the vasl dicebot?

Bill
 

SamB

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Having said that, is it possible to cheat with the vasl dicebot?
Its possible (easy, even) to cheat in a PBEM game. One way that requires NO technical competance is to simply step thro the log file again and again (without saving) until you get a "lucky" series of rolls. Then you save it and send it back. Your opponent can't tell that you stepped thro' the turn 16 times to get the result you wanted...

Without a great deal of work (decompiling / modifying the VASSAL code, etc) I don't think its particularly easy to cheat while playing live.

Sam
 

Hubbs5

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SamB said:
Having said that, is it possible to cheat with the vasl dicebot?
Its possible (easy, even) to cheat in a PBEM game. One way that requires NO technical competance is to simply step thro the log file again and again (without saving) until you get a "lucky" series of rolls. Then you save it and send it back. Your opponent can't tell that you stepped thro' the turn 16 times to get the result you wanted...

Without a great deal of work (decompiling / modifying the VASSAL code, etc) I don't think its particularly easy to cheat while playing live.

This is true if you only need to redo a few DR's but if you need to redo say 15 to 20 the odds are that one of those DR's will be detrimental to you causing you to have to redo the whole process over again. That certainly doesn't seem easy to me. Especially if you need to have low rolls when you attack and high rolls when he rolls his MC's.

It would be pretty sad if someone had to stoop to this level to win but I am sure it has been done before human nature being what it is.
 

SamB

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Its been more than 10 days since I posted my challenge and no winners. No one even close.

There are 5 sets of 100 DRs on my website(http://dicetower.com). Look at them. Analyze them. Tell me which ones (if any) were rolled by "hand" with real dice and which ones (if any) were generated by the VASL dice bot.

If there is a problem with the dice bot you should be able to tell by looking at the DRs.

I will say that the whining has gone down a bit - that's good. Maybe this will silence it. :)

BTW, one person wrote to me that they had a dice tower and an internet camera. Both players can "watch" the dice roll. That's one way to avoid using the dice bot!!!
:roll:

Sam
 

Bryan Holtby

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Dont worry Sam, Im about to stir the pot up real good :)

Its not about predictability as far as I am concerned, its not even about streaks and the bell curve seems on for the most part. There were a few nasty streaks in your 14000 DR's, a couple that I doubt very much would actually happen with real dice. At one point, in 11 DR's, there was 4 12's, 2 2's, 1 3 and an 11 and another spot where 4 11's, 3 3's, a 2 and a 12 were rolled in a dozen rolls. Both of these sequences followed long periods without a 2 or 12 or both. Long being over 100 rolls.

The only odd thing I have discovered is that after rolling snakes, you are more likely (4:1 ratio) to roll boxcars than you are to roll another set of snakes, the ratio for snakes after boxcars vs. boxcars after boxcars is 3.5:1. Since there is a 2.8% chance of rolling either boxcars or snakes on every roll, both snakes AND boxcars should come up roughly the same number of times after either snakes or boxcars are rolled. This isnt happening. Confused yet?

I look forward to getting the next set of rolls so I can see if this high/low swing continues.
 

Bryan Holtby

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Maybe the reason I have never ever seen a series of rolls like I described above is because I would have chucked my dice across the room and started using another set :)

BTW, the camera idea requires one on each end it seems, but it does work and eliminates ANY complaining, I just have to remember to have more than one set on hand :)
 

SamB

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Its not about predictability as far as I am concerned, its not even about streaks and the bell curve seems on for the most part. There were a few nasty streaks in your 14000 DR's, a couple that I doubt very much would actually happen with real dice. At one point, in 11 DR's, there was 4 12's, 2 2's, 1 3 and an 11 and another spot where 4 11's, 3 3's, a 2 and a 12 were rolled in a dozen rolls. .
The pattern you describe is unusual, but well within probability - you don't think its "possible" to have that series of rolls? I've seen similar improbable series. If it DIDN'T happen once in a while your dice wouldn't be random.

Both of these sequences followed long periods without a 2 or 12 or both. Long being over 100 rolls.
100 drs is not "long" when the odds of rolling a 2 or 12 are one in 36.

"Patterns" like these can and do happen with real dice. They can and do happen with the dice bot. This does not demonstrate a problem.

Sam
 

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Sam have stated: "There is nothing wrong with the dice bot"

Peter have stated: "There is something wrong with the dice bot"

Rodney Kinney have stated: "There might be a hardware problem with the dice bot"

Why not just shut up and play the game with or without the dice bot as we agree on, I will not use it until I see that it is nothing wrong with it and Sam's arguments do not impress me. I will not and have not whined about it either.
 

SamB

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Why not just shut up and play the game with or without the dice bot as we agree on,
That would be fine.

I will not use it until I see that it is nothing wrong with it and Sam's arguments do not impress me. I will not and have not whined about it either.
How will you know the dice bot is "fixed"???? If you can't show if / how its broken, you will never use it because you'll never be able to know if it got "fixed".

I suppose that's fine. I've heard others say they won't play VASL because of the dice bot and I think that's a shame. (and can't be good for the hobby). And how do you play VASL without the dicebot? just curious...

NO ONE has been able to show that there is a problem with the dice bot. Stating that this or that series of rolls is improbable is a totally bogus argument.

Sam
 

Bryan Holtby

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While I did state that the bizarre 11 or 12 roll sequence was improbable, THAT wasnt the main issue and has never been!!

The real problem is the 12/2 combo crap......and it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that the 12/2 issue is the same as the 2/12, and thats what happened.

Im not going to add more to what I said about the numbers. I was willing to look through 14000 rolls, I KNEW what I was going to find.....and I found it.

Send me another 10000 rolls and lets see what happens. Im betting that it wont change.
 

Chris Milne

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So in 14k rolls you found two dodgy sequences. Are you ever going to make 7k dicebot rolls? If one of those came along every few hundred rolls, I'd be alarmed.

I've done analysis on sequences of low/high and high/low (etc.) rolls, and there just aren't enough 2s and 12s in the list to get a good view.

Snakes were rolled 396 times in 14,000.
A pair of snakes occurred just 6 times (you'd expect exactly 11).
Snakes followed by boxcars occurred 22 times (again, you'd expect 11).
But 396 isn't a big sample to base an opinion on.

I'll try to summarise the results of my analysis.
Because of the sample size being too small to look at the extreme ends, I looked at 'high' (10 to 12) and 'low' (2 to 4) rolls.

Where the initial roll was Low (2,356 times)
Another low roll followed immediately: 380 times (expected: 396)
A high roll followed immediately: 426 times (expected: 388)

Where the initial roll was High (2,307 times)
A low roll followed immediately: 381 times (expected: 388)
Another high roll followed immediately: 363 times (expected: 380)

Note that my expectations were based on the actual distribution of rolls in the sample, not the probable distribution.

I did the same thing with 'very low' (2 or 3) and 'very high' (11 or 12), but I don't think the sample sizes (at c. 1,200) are big enough to draw any great conclusions.
FWIW, there might be an indication that very low rolls aren't followed by another very low roll as often as might be expected; also, very high rolls aren't followed by another very high roll as often as might be expected.
V-low/v-high and v-high/v-low combinations were pretty much in line with expectations, though.


Sam (if you're still with me here!), would you be willing to post my analysis on your site if I mailed it to you? (I think it would probably be best near the original data).
 

Bruce Childs

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I just started up a vasl pbem game. This particular opponent will not use the dice bot, so I am at the mercy of his honesty, which I have no reason to question. Unfortunately, his first roll against me this turn was snake eyes......

Now this brings the whole dice bot debate full circle in my opinion. What are the odds of that happening? Whats wrong with this picture? Where's da risk game...? :twisted:
 

SamB

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One of the problems I have with the honor system is that I am reluctant to report my rolls when they are unusually good....

I mean, suppose you roll three 2's in a row.... If you honestly report that, many people begin to suspect you're cheating.

If you don't report it, you cheat yourself.
 

Hubbs5

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SamB said:
One of the problems I have with the honor system is that I am reluctant to report my rolls when they are unusually good....

I mean, suppose you roll three 2's in a row.... If you honestly report that, many people begin to suspect you're cheating.

If you don't report it, you cheat yourself.
Good point Sam. The dicebot is much more desirable no matter what level it is performing at, and I for one have no problem with it, over the honor system. I don't worry so much about him cheating me as I would over compensate to not appear to be cheating him. The dicebot takes away any integrity issues as far as I am concerned and it is worth using it for that reason alone.
 

Bryan Holtby

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Chris, what do you consider to be a dodgy sequence? Is it a sequence where 30% of the rolls are at either end of the extremes 2,3,11,12 ?

If so, I think you will find over 40 of them. They dont appear on a consistant basis, sometimes every 100 rolls, sometimes 1000 rolls between.
 

Chris Milne

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By no means 30%. It would depend on the number of rolls in the series, but since you'd expect to see 2, 3, 11 or 12 crop up one roll in every six (c. 17%), I don't think 30% is drastically out of the ordinary. Particularly since we're artificially selecting sequences to maximise the occurrence.

Tell ya what - select 100 random starting points and examine the following 9 rolls (so 100 sequences of 10 rolls each). How many have 3 or more of the above rolls?
 
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