VASL dice bot...

Bryan Holtby

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Chris, what do you consider to be a dodgy sequence? Is it a sequence where 30% of the rolls are at either end of the extremes 2,3,11,12 ?

If so, I think you will find over 40 of them. They dont appear on a consistant basis, sometimes every 100 rolls, sometimes 1000 rolls between.
 

Chris Milne

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By no means 30%. It would depend on the number of rolls in the series, but since you'd expect to see 2, 3, 11 or 12 crop up one roll in every six (c. 17%), I don't think 30% is drastically out of the ordinary. Particularly since we're artificially selecting sequences to maximise the occurrence.

Tell ya what - select 100 random starting points and examine the following 9 rolls (so 100 sequences of 10 rolls each). How many have 3 or more of the above rolls?
 

Matt Romey

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Bryan Holtby said:
Chris, what do you consider to be a dodgy sequence? Is it a sequence where 30% of the rolls are at either end of the extremes 2,3,11,12 ?

If so, I think you will find over 40 of them. They dont appear on a consistant basis, sometimes every 100 rolls, sometimes 1000 rolls between.
How about a sequence where 5 rolls in a row are 2,3,11 or 12?

Believe it or not, the odds of this happenning are 0.013% (i.e. 16.67% to the 5th power). If you roll 7000 times you would expect about 90 such sequences (0.013% of 6995 individual sequences of 5). At least by my back of the envelope calculations.

Matt Romey
 

Chas Argent

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One more reason why Dicebot sucks my a**:

In the last 2 weeks I've opened four VASL 3 email Defensive Fire files where the first DR my opponent threw was 1,1. That's another thing I've noticed is how whacked the first DR can be sometimes after you start VASL up.
 

Bryan Holtby

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Well......I rolled boxcars with my first roll the other day.....and I now use a dicetower with a netcam on it.....so real dice can do you in too.
 

Chris Milne

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Chas Argent said:
One more reason why Dicebot sucks my a**:

In the last 2 weeks I've opened four VASL 3 email Defensive Fire files where the first DR my opponent threw was 1,1. That's another thing I've noticed is how whacked the first DR can be sometimes after you start VASL up.
Ah, come on. All I did was immobilise a Monkey Harry :)

More seriously, you assume that was the first DR of that session - iirc I'd had a couple of other logfiles through that evening. Still, from here on in I'll try to remember to hit the button a few times before I load a logfile up!
 

Chas Argent

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Actually Chris none of the files were yours; I was thinking of 4 others; I forgot about yours so that makes 5! LOL
 

Jay White

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interesting..

I have recieved only two logfiles in the past week; in both of mine my opponents first rolls were 1,1 as well. i hate thinking that its the dicebot. I shouldn't have started this thread in the first place, it's screwing with my MIND!

-jay
 

Larry

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I would suspect a plethora of 1/1 opening DR to represent something othe than a problem with a random number generator. It is like playng an ADD game and miraculously getting an 18 in the critical area. Sometimes it happens and sometimes players wait for it to happen.
 

SamB

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I have recieved only two logfiles in the past week; in both of mine my opponents first rolls were 1,1 as well. i hate thinking that its the dicebot. I shouldn't have started this thread in the first place, it's screwing with my MIND!

-jay
Well, your opponent might be repeatedly starting his defensive fire until he gets snake eyes on his first shot!!!.

That explanation is at least as likely as deciding that the dice bot is to blame.

I once played a game where my opponent got rate of fire 5 times with is '88 - stopping firing only when he ran out of targets in his LOS. Then I rolled a snake eyes on my advancing fire shot (vs a panther) followed by a 12 on the effects (no effect - dud). Then my opponent's Prep Fire Phase came - and he got FIVE consecutive Critical Hits.

Oh, by the way.... all of the above happened with "real dice". And I never once thought that my opponent was cheating, or that the dice were flawed.

Its not the dice bot - you opponenet is cheating - or you suck at this game. Take you pick.

Sam
 

Johnny Canuck

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This morning I rolled a 1,2 resulting in a 1MC, which he subsequently failed.

HOWEVER, I forgot to turn on the logging.

Once I'd turned on logging, my logged roll was teh shits, and he's now got a prime piece of real estate.

Doh!
 

AnewNewbie

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Re: interesting..

Jay White said:
I have recieved only two logfiles in the past week; in both of mine my opponents first rolls were 1,1 as well. i hate thinking that its the dicebot. I shouldn't have started this thread in the first place, it's screwing with my MIND!

-jay
Funny you should mention that,when I started my log the other day my first roll was a 1,1 and I'm pretty sure I hadn't used the dicebot before hand.I hope it was just luck, as the roll did wipe out 3 squads.
 

AnewNewbie

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atuline said:
This morning I rolled a 1,2 resulting in a 1MC, which he subsequently failed.

HOWEVER, I forgot to turn on the logging.

Once I'd turned on logging, my logged roll was teh shits, and he's now got a prime piece of real estate.

Doh!
Dont worry Andrew,Your first turn movement I'd Broken one squad, killed a leader,and reduced your SAN with my sniper,plus I'd reduced another.I was very happy until I'd realised I'd forgotten to start the log.My flatmates were very impressed with my swearing. :shock:
 

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Dicebot, not a problem I think

Hi guys,

Just my 2 cents.

ASL: You roll 100-200 DRs in a game. About 10% of games are significantly influenced by DRs. Short scenarios can be more dicey, some scenarios have a "critical I must make this DR". Some DRs mean next to nothing (wind change)...ok 10% influence to dice give or take.

If the dicebot does not show obvious (5%+) flaws in samples of 100-200 DRs then what's the problem? Suppose there is a streaking issue? Issues (bad seeds/streaking) are equally likely to happen to either/both players no? There are cases where 1 player has many more DRs than other in the game.

You could really stretch it out to say "in games where I roll 30% as many rolls as my opponent, and we play 9 hours straight, there may be some (3-4 rolls) skewed by the bot." ...and this *will not* decide 9 hours of playing.

Big deal! We all still play computer games without whining.

Where I am going with this is that:

a) The overall distributions are normal to 1000 rolls. That's good enough for me.

b) There is no way to exploit the bot to the advantage of a given player in FtF VASL.
 
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Hello:
I recently started playing vasl and I noticed some strange (what I feel are somewhat out of the ballpark, but which are certainly statistically possible) dice roll situations. After talking to one of my opponents, who knows a computer programmer & who had consulted with him on a previous occasion some time ago, he had told him that sometimes numbers "stick" in the Java computer language. What that means in laymen's terms is that there is a higher degree of probability that, for example, in ten consecutive dice rolls the probability of getting four "3s" is higher than the probability of getting four "3s" in rolling standard physical dice.
My opponent had told me that this issue has certainly been beat into the ground over the years with literally hundreds of threads & replies, but being a new VASLr it is certainly "newly" relavent to me and to any new person to vasl, or new to any virtual random dice generator I guess for that matter, so I sort of feel it is responsible to pass on some of what I have learned and seen--mainly for any new VASLrs like myself out there.
Despite this tendency for the dice to stick, I most definitely!! [underscored] prefer it to the honor system. I think that Sam Belcher in a previous post said it best when he mentioned that he would feel guilty having to report two consecutive honor DRs of 2; I agree with him perfectly on this point. I think that the honor system, at least for me, takes all the fun out of DRs. Whereas I would feel "greatly elated" if I had rolled back-to-back 2s in a ftf game with physical dice which my opponent could directly see, I would feel like "Damn-He's-never-going-to-believe-this" if I had to report back to back 2s in an honor sytem type situation, which would completely take all the fun out of the roll & game (at least for me); not to mention the fact that I'm just not so much of a trusting sort anymore, life & people have contributed to this over the years. So, I would prefer the dice bot (even if somewhat flawed) for that reason alone [which is a very powerful reason to me]. Another way I've recently been feeling more&more about this is: it's something I, or anyone else for that matter who is serious about ASL/VASL, will just have to adapt to, as someone else in another post not-so-elequently put it. If it happens then it happens, just adapt. Having said this, this is a shift from my original opinion which, reading back over now, seems harsh, and which was gained from first occurance, "first impressions" if you will (but you know "first impressions" always change once you get to know someone, or in this case something, better). Add to this the fact that at the time I was in definite (with a capital "D") whinning mode, which you'll understand if you read on to what happened.
I would definitely like to congratulate Rodney Kinney for developing such a great system, and I'm sure that many people wouldn't be playing ASL now if it weren't for VASL, so don't take anything I've said negatively, "sticky" bot or not is irrelevant. By the way, I would definitely contribute to the VASL coffer If I wasn't unemployed; once I get a job he'll definitely get a paypal donation from me. Maybe the Mexican who now has my job in Mexico can contribute on my behalf ... ha!
Anyway, I went ahead and copied & pasted my original email to Rodney Kinney below, mainly because I did so much work with the stat analysis over that weekend that I felt it needed to be saved somehow (after all, I did so much work, hate to see it wasted). So for those guys that said no evidence no proof or something along those lines here it is, even if it's meager. By the way, keep in mind that these results are on the basis of my first 7 vasl games, certainly not a large sample base, but from what I've learned about "sticking" I feel I can now account for these wild swings (at least in my own mind anyway). So, "having said this" and "like I said" this is basically just information for the newbie VASLer who may or may not have witnessed rolls like this already; I'm sure old timers have already seen this subject beaten to death already....

I copied and pasted my email to Rodney Kinney below (to whom it may concern), and immediately after I copied and pasted the short email reply he sent me the next day [just for you information, since as a fellow ASLer you may be interested]. I tried to start a thread on the aslml mailing list, but I seem to be doing something wrong, for everytime I send a letter to the aslml it never gets posted. So apparently I'm doing something wrong, though I don't know exactly what. I noticed that you have periodically started threads there, so perhaps I can burden you with starting one on by behalf ... something along the lines of "Highly improbable DR in relation to vasl dice bot" or something like that. I suspect that there are many people who have seen such wild fluctuations in probability (out of the ball park type of wild), since I suspect the dice bot is flawed and thus I would expect a lot of responses from people with such examples. In my opinion, I believe there is something wrong there, especially after talking to another VASLer (In his case the odds of getting 8 consecutive rof shots with a 1rof gun is: (.16)^8 = .000000429, .0000429%, even more wild than what happened to me! He won't even play using the dice bot! By the way the probability of getting 6 out of 10 dice rolls of 4 or less comes to: (210)*(1/6)^6*(5/6)^4 {where 210 = (10!)/(4!)(6!) which came to .002170635 or .2170635% or about one in 500, pretty far out, though not as far out as I first thought (though in our case it should be a bit less as you got four 3s!!!! among those six 4 four or less). Definitely a string of rolls I'll never forget! a first for me in my ASL gaming experience.
Thanks,
rk (Richard Kindel) ....

To whom it may concern:
I recently had a couple of extraordinary events (in terms of probabilities) occur while playing vasl, and I think this may be of concern to you (though I concede it may not). I recently started playing vasl (though I'm an ASL old timer), and I had two "rare" events occur in my first 7 games of vasl (I've only completed 7 vasl games, and have 3 or 4 games in process up to this point in my first month of vasl playing).
In one event I had 8 consecutive shots from a 50 cal. HMG [ASL 61] for a probability occurrence of (.5)^8 which works out to .390625% [that's .5 for a color die roll of one, two, or three equal to 50%. Multiplied by the power 8 for eight consecutive shots rof]. In the second case which runs in a desert scenario [TOT34] my opponent first got a "gusts" in his rally phase turn one {1 in 36 chance, I did not add the wind change probability of DR2 because even with that the subsequent die roll could at best increase or decrease the "no wind" starting level to "mild breeze", which would have had no effect on my motion dust, dispersed sD, and VSG}; he was then able to get 10 consecutive rof shots from a 40L ATG on a hillock vs my units now without smoke/dust cover. This doesn't sound very extraordinary (unless you're on the receiving end) until you start putting numbers on it. I'm not even going to bother you with the probabilities of his sub rolls on his 10 rof (suffice to say he had gotten 7 hits with that 10rof including four 3s and two 4s in the course of his hot dice rolls; I ended up with two burning halftracks, one normal wreck and two shocks; more than half the infantry component of my attacking force was killed from the rof of one single gun on turn 1!!). Anyway, the numbers work out as follows: (.5)^10 X 1/36 comes out to .000027126 for a probability of .0027126% [where .5 is colored die roll percentage as before, 50%, and power 10 = 10 consecutive rolls, and where 1/36 is gusts probability {not including the wind chance for 2/36 because wind force, up or down one level, would have had no effect in this case}]. I must include the probability of gusts to the rof because it so significant in this situation (desert attacking, absolutely no cover, only the cover of SMOKE).
Now, to put some significance to these numbers I need to make one generalization, that is that a medium sized scenario includes 100 dice rolls from start to finish give or take 20 or so, not including die rolls. Sure, this is debatable, but in my 120 to 150 ftf games or so of ASL over the past 20 years + (which sure, isn't very much) I can say that's approximately been my experience (maybe a small scenario such as T1 is half that [50 dice rolls give or take 10], or a large scenario double that 200/ give take 50, and a CG [campaign game] perhaps 500+ dice rolls). For the most part I've played medium/small scenarios, maybe 90% of my games have been such; I've only tried 3 CGs and never completed one. So, generalizing at 100 dice rolls per game/scenario I should see, for example, a Russian 76L gun with a rof 2 getting 5 shots in succession about .. (.33)^5 times .. for a probability of .0039135 or .39135% (using my TI35 calculator) {this, by the way, is the rarest event I've ever witnessed in my 120 to 150 ftf games}. So, this works out to a 3.9135% chance in ten games [one thousand DRs] or a 39.135% chance in a hundred games [ten thousand Drs] or 391.35% chance in a thousand games [one hundred thousand Drs]. I'll round up the last to 400% chance in a thousand games for simplicity' sake .. this then simplifies to 100% in 250 games .. in other words I should see this event happen once in 250 games for certainty. So, in my 120/150 ftf games of ASL I had approximately a 50% chance of witnessing this event under normal conditions -- which is about what happened and what I would expect.
Now, in in my first 7 vasl games I witnessed the two events I described in the second paragraph, one with a probability of .390625% [I'll call "A"], the other with a probability of .0027126% [I'll call "B"]. Putting numbers on these, I should see the "A" event .. approximately 390.625 times in one thousand games, and again rounding to 400 times for simplicity' sake: 400 in 1000 simplifies to once in 250 games for certainty {i.e. I should see this happen once in 250 games; approximately the same chance as my 76L 2rof Russian gun getting 5 consecutive shots in my ftf games}. The probability of "B" is even more remote with a chance of .0027126% this works to 27.126% chance in one thousand games, which is low even then, so we need to step it up to ten thousand games or 271.26% in ten thousand games. I'll again round to 300% for simplicity' sake in 10,000 games, which works down to once in 3,333games for certainty. Now, I don't know about you, but in 7 vasl games getting two occurrences, one with a chance of 1 in 250 games and the other with 1 in 3000 (or so) games .... This is just a little too remarkable/rare for me, and leads me to draw two possible explanations/conclusions for all this: that the vasl dice machine is either "flawed" or "hacked". Either way significantly reduces my desirability to play vasl. Low rolls don't bother me, as I've dished out as many low rolls as I've been on the receiving end of, but in the case of "flawed" a dice rolling machine that doesn't exhibit the same probability of real dice rolls seriously inhibits the balance of most scenarios (in my opinion: a probability of DR2 being equal to a probability of DR7 seriously hinders any side with fewer forces than the other). And I don't even like to think of the second possibility of "hacked," where some opponent is somehow manipulating his DRs in his favor. But I'll say this, the FBI just doesn't accept wild probabilities; for example, they use DNA analysis for investigation and courtroom evidence to narrow suspects, so I can't just ignore these wild swings in probability which have occurred in just 7 vasl games either. Now, I could be wrong ... but I don't think I am: something is not right with the vasl dice machine; It's either "flawed" or "hacked" (in which case it's not your fault). I don't know which, but I feel relatively certain it's one or the other or both.
But, to end on a positive note I will say that the artwork, boards, counters, and basic functioning of vasl is very good, though I've gotten booted much more than I would like. I think a LOS tracker would be great, so each opponent can know when the other is checking LOS (It just clicks on, or whatever, when one man checks LOS, a very simple mechanism). Also a HIP box and a Secret DR/dr box, like the OBA box, which simply records where all HIP units were placed at game start, and makes notes if any changes in HIP position were made subsequent to setup, would also be great. The HIP box should also be allowed to automatically "open" at game end (once the last game turn is complete) to allow your opponent to see & verify opening HIP placement once the scenario has completed & thus he can then see if any changes were made to it. These would also be simple (in my opinion) but great additions, if nothing else than to reduce the worry that the honor system elements of HIP, LOS checking, and Secret DR/dr necessarily induce. I'm a big fan of eliminating the necessity of the honor system wherever possible; I think it's possible to eliminate it altogether at this point which would be great. A secret DR/dr box would simply record any secret DR/dr made by one opponent for the other, say for example for mud/deep snow bog, by one opponent "labeling" the secret DR/dr which is then made & placed in the HIP box and is automatically "opened" at game end for verification by the opponent along with HIP units.
 

Larry

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Not this discussion again. If it is possible, i.e. there is a probability, why does the fact that it happened at all evidence a glitch in the randomizer? If something with a 0.2% or 0.001% chance **never** happened in 100,000 games, then that might indicate something statistically wrong. Ten ROF shots in a row with rate of fire should occur slightly less than 1:1000 games. What about 10 shots during a game with a 3 ROF weapon that never gets ROF, would that raise an eyebrow? What you don't say is how many rolls between shots (TK, IFT, MC, etc.) occurred in between the 10 shots. Taking the 20 rolls, how many had a cdr < 4? We can all manipulate the data and rearrange it. 10 shots is unlikely but so is a critical hit followed by a dud (less than 8:10,000). Has that ever happened with physical dice?

This is a tired subject often beaten like a dead horse.

Secret rolls, jump into another room and roll. Hidden setup, save the game at setup and give your opponent that game specific password at the end of the game. Either that, or don't play with people you don't trust. It is just a game.
 

WesN

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Larry has hit the nail on the head on all accounts as far as I am concerned. Sometimes you get bad dice and sometimes you get good dice. Sometime you have a WHOLE game of good dice for yourself and roll a WHOLE game of bad dice for your opponent in PBEM. It just happens.
 

Chas Argent

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I'm playing a VASL game right now where my opponent got 3 snakeyes in a row during a crucial Rally Phase to rally 3 squads who were under DM, two of which created Heroes & one of which also Battle Hardened. Immediately following he got another snakes on a MC which created yet another Hero; all within the space of 5 DRs. It's a small-enough scenario that the impact of this is enormous, and that one sequence is going to cost me the game.

Yup, no streaks in Dicebot.

Sorry folks, but there is a difference between "good dice & bad dice" and what happens with the VASL roller. I'm never going to use it again and from now on will roll real dice only when using VASL.
 

SamB

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I'm playing a VASL game right now where my opponent got 3 snakeyes in a row during a crucial Rally Phase to rally 3 squads who were under DM, two of which created Heroes & one of which also Battle Hardened. Immediately following he got another snakes on a MC which created yet another Hero; all within the space of 5 DRs. It's a small-enough scenario that the impact of this is enormous, and that one sequence is going to cost me the game.
I once saw an opponent roll FIVE consecutive Critical Hits against me. Only problem was that this was with "real dice" - my dice actually.

Yup, no streaks in Dicebot.
No one with more than two brain cells ever said there were no streaks in the Dicebot. There should be streaks.

Sorry folks, but there is a difference between "good dice & bad dice" and what happens with the VASL roller. I'm never going to use it again and from now on will roll real dice only when using VASL.
No skin off my back. You do realize that your "feeling" about the dicebot is just that.... a feeling. I'd really be interested in a more objective evaluation.
 

Bryan Holtby

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Sigh, I just love this topic so much :lol: The only 'statistical' data that has been shown in this thread is that of Chris Milne and myself. We both came to the same conclusions.

Following a DR of 12, you are approx. 4 times as likely to get a DR2 than you are a DR12 for the next roll, and following a DR2 approx 4 times as likely to get a DR12 than a DR2. This shouldn't be so.

This is my only 'issue' about the dicebot in VASL.

HOWEVER, even in 14,000 rolls there wasnt enough DR 12 or DR 2 to draw any concrete conclusions. I believe there were 400 or so of each original DR12 or DR2, which was in line with the number expected of each.

Sam's DR list of 14 thousand rolls didnt prove me wrong but its not enough for me to stand up and say with certainty that I'm right either.

It just continues to make me suspicious.
 
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