Trump - an 'aberration'?

Mister T

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Trump is not an aberration. It was an incident waiting to happen. Actually he is matching the electorate more than the benevolent patricians that have ruled this country since its creation. This does not necessarily mean his election will yield favorable outcomes for those that voted for him.
 

TopT

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I think it is a mistake Brian to look at that election as just another midterm. The importance is in the statistics and what they implied. To start.. it had the highest turnout for an off year election in over a century. It nearly rivaled.. in fact topped some Presidential elections thus that makes the results significant. A dress rehersesal or preview of what could or may be in store for 2020. Both sides were highly energized and mobilized to vote. If the Democrats win nationally by 7 points in 2020 as they did in 2018... it won't simply be a win and the White House.. but pretty close to an electoral landslide..

of course it is too early to draw inflections from 2018 to 2020.. but Trump continuing to .. umm.. be himself is making it hard to not think he has a snowballs chance in hell to win in 2020.. he needs those independents.. moderates to win.. or the resurccted political corpse of HRC to rise from the dead and eat the brains of the primary electorate and have her give Trump a rematch. Though... I think if she got one... she'd actually win this time haha.

Yes Brian the polling and the result DO reflect that fleeing... check it out.. and note that the GOP lost educated moderate suburbs in .. yep.. fucking UTAH.. Oklahoma.. and Kansas... that was not a normal midterm.. it was a blue wave and it was fueled in part by energized Democrats.. but also moderate Republicans finally giving up and leaving the party. Temporary? Don't bet on it.. not a damn thing has been done by the GOP to appeal to them to bring them back.. much less by Trump himself... and there is the historical lesson of Reagan Democrat... ie Trump voter in the rust belt 30 years later. Once a party losses a demographic.. it is often not temporary.. but often for decades or longer..
The 2018 House Democratic win was the largest since Watergate. That is not a small statement. That the Republicans did not win more Senate seats was also telling. The map favored them. In 2 years the Democrats made up 50 % of all of the losses suffered under 8 years of Obama.
At this point I cannot believe that more have not abandoned the Republican party. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the R's have almost zero integrity. They are now actively seeking help from a foreign government for help in the upcoming 2020 election.
The Republicans are doing nothing to try and win any one else other than the die hard Trumpists. The State by State passage of fetal heart beat laws will do nothing but push 75 % - 80% of all women away from the Republican party.
 

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Trump is not an aberration. It was an incident waiting to happen. Actually he is matching the electorate more than the benevolent patricians that have ruled this country since its creation. This does not necessarily mean his election will yield favorable outcomes for those that voted for him.
Completely disagree. He actually lost the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes and his popularity has never been above 46%. It is true that he matches a certain segment of the electorate but the follow up election (2018) saw his party take their largest losses since Watergate. He is also running at almost a 60% disapproval rating.
He was elected on a platform of discontent, that he was able to tap into very well, but he has zero ability to actually lead as his personality disorders far and away get in front of his ability to make a sound decision.
 

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Because of our flawed political system (electoral college, money in politics, etc.), toxic media (esp. Fox), racism, and the effects of neoliberalism (destruction of the ecosystem, economic inequality, job outsourcing), we find ourselves with Trump. He doesn't have to serve the entire country, but just the interests of his cult followers to remain in power.

We'll continue to have Trump or someone as toxic as he is until these above problems are solved. I'm not holding my breath - I can't see how these conditions will change, but am open to see how they could...
 

Sparafucil3

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He doesn't have to serve the entire country, but just the interests of his cult followers to remain in power.
Simple math say's you're wrong. I am quite sure electoral college math says you're wrong too. Appeal to more people. Problem solved. How about hold onto your base (OH, MI, WI, PA) and no Trump. Trump's election was more about the Left's failure to build broad-based consensus than it was about Trump's winning. The left lost it's traditional strangle hold on the rust belt. Regain that, problem solved. Hillary took them for granted. Trump worked hard here. She lost. You do the math. -- jim
 

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Simple math say's you're wrong. I am quite sure electoral college math says you're wrong too. Appeal to more people. Problem solved. How about hold onto your base (OH, MI, WI, PA) and no Trump. Trump's election was more about the Left's failure to build broad-based consensus than it was about Trump's winning. The left lost it's traditional strangle hold on the rust belt. Regain that, problem solved. Hillary took them for granted. Trump worked hard here. She lost. You do the math. -- jim
Yes, it is not rocket science on how the Dem's can re-win the WH. The Senate is another story....
 

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Simple math say's you're wrong. I am quite sure electoral college math says you're wrong too. Appeal to more people. Problem solved. How about hold onto your base (OH, MI, WI, PA) and no Trump. Trump's election was more about the Left's failure to build broad-based consensus than it was about Trump's winning. The left lost it's traditional strangle hold on the rust belt. Regain that, problem solved. Hillary took them for granted. Trump worked hard here. She lost. You do the math. -- jim
I agree that the DNC and (Military-Industrial-Complex) Hillary lost the election based on their not 'getting it' (not understanding the people) and other blaring flaws, too many to list. But don't mistake these two miscreants for the 'left' - a common mistake made in our media (don't let em fool ya). The DNC is a corporate / not common people based organization which has nothing at all to do with left-wing, progressive politics. Many people rightly saw through that veneer and rejected it, but wrongly couldn't seen through Trump's fraudulent populism or didn't want to anyway due to their proclivity towards racism, and accepted / embraced it.

Hope springs eternal, and I hope that enough of Trumps (non-racist) followers figure out they've been sorely had by swamp-loving Trump and that the Dems can field someone who truly wants to fight for the people (hi Bernie!) vs Wall Street (hi Joe!). Then maybe, just maybe, we can get someone in office who represents We The People.
 

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In 2 years the Democrats made up 50 % of all of the losses suffered under 8 years of Obama.
exactly. While all the press harped on the Dem's retaking the House and the Republcians failing to take advantage of historically bad Senate map for the Democrats..where a mere gain of a couple seats was almost considered a loss considering what they could have done.. 7 or 8 seat pickup and perhaps solidify Senate control for years. They couldn't even put it out of reach of the possibility of losing control in 2020.

Nice to see you point out what hasn't got much play. The murkier and less glamorous result of the Blue wave of 2018 They flipped multiple states at the statehouse and local levels and still multiple others became purpleish from solid red.. in play moving forward. That's not evening counting 2017 and special election gains and the State of Virginia a year that went from solid red to a lost coin flip from turning it blue. It took some time for the party to recognize what the Repubicans have long known and exploiting the Democratic ignorance of.. and apathy of... the power of local politics.. and that have strong ripple effects on the national level like redistricting.. and Voter ID laws.
 

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Yes, it is not rocket science on how the Dem's can re-win the WH. The Senate is another story....
not rocket science at all... I broke down those states and why Trump won them some time back in my 2020 election preview.

the story of 2016 was the failure of the 'blue wall' and these 3 states to save America and its values from Trump haha So let's look at them and can we draw anything about 2020....

Pennsylvania
2012 Presidential election
approx 52-47 Obama with approx 67% turnout. 5.7M votes
2016 Presidential election
approx 48 and low change-47 high change Trump with approx 70% turnout 6.1M votes
2018 Midterm election
Senate and Gov elections.. 55-42 and 58-41 for the Democratic candidates approx 57% turnout (a record for a midterm as it was in many states).Approx 4.9M votes.

Michigan
2012 Presidential election
approx 54-45 Obama with approx 63.5% turnout. 4.7M votes
2016 Presidential election
approx 47.5-47.3 Trump with approx 63% turnout. 4.7M votes
2018 Midterm election
Gov and Sen races 53-44/52-46 team Blue wins with approx 57.5% turnout (highest in 50 years)

Wisconsin
2012 Presidential election
approx 53-46 Obama with approx 70% turnout 3M votes cast
2016 Presidential election
approx 47-46 Trump with approx 69% turnout...2.9M votes cast
2018 Midterm election
Gov and Senate approx 49-48/ and 55-46 team blue wins. Approx 60% turnout (another record breaker) 2.7M votes.

so what can we draw from this,,,,.

so the most obvious takeaway from 2018 is 2016 was an aberration.. those states have not gone purple from Blue. Trump was a special case who bucked past history.. yet the states reverted back when he wasn't on the ballot. It isn't the Republican that won those states. He did.

or did he?

let's look closer at those vote totals. .what is the first thing that might jump out. Yep.. in none of those states did Trump win a majority of votes.

PA
Trump won by approx 40k votes... but over 200k votes were cast for 3rd party... in 2012 there were... approx 70k.. in 2008 there were..approx 62k
so perhaps many are turning to 3rd Party.. so let's see how many were cast in 2018... ahh huh. around 79k. So what happened to them.. we'll come back to that. Perhaps that was just an aberration.

so what about MI
Trump won by approx 17k votes.. but almost 250k votes were cast for a 3rd party.. in 2012 there were...
approx 50k... in 2008 there were.. approx 80k

and in 2018 of those 250k who suddenly found God and salvation in a 3rd party... how many voted... uhh huh... approx 83k

so what about Wisconsin
Trump won there by approx 23k votes but almost 200k votes were cast for 3rd party.. in 2012 there were...
approx 40k.. in 2008 there were.. approx 40k

and what about those 250k 3rd partiers in 2018... how many voted for 3rd Party.. uhh huh..approx 50k

so what can one conclude about that... time for a beer and smoke and we'll wrap up this election preview

so in those states we've sort of seen that there were hundreds of thousands of votes cast for 3rd party.. yet they were one off votes. Call them protest votes. Those who could and not would not support Trump.. and those that could not and would not support Hillary.

so in 2020.. who will be on the ballot.and who will not? In 2018 we saw those Democratic strongholds are still quite blue..

so if as expected Trump's victory there was as much about rejecting Hillary as it was his appeal to the great white working class.. here is what that electoral map looks like if Hillary does not go George f**king Romero and end up on the ballot again. A candidate the Republicans spent years tearing apart. A very public figure who was, in spite of her qualfications ... extemely dislikable and on top of it made profound tactical and strategy mistakes (like likely not taking Trump the candidate seriously) that NO democrat in 2020 will do


so the key to beating Trump. the blue wall.. and the key to bring that back.. don't nominate Hillary Clinton again...
 

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... so the key to beating Trump. the blue wall.. and the key to bring that back.. don't nominate Hillary Clinton again...
Right. HRC was a disaster. Was her failure in these key states due to her not understanding their pain or their frustration about DC politics - or simply because she's very unappealing personally? Probably a bit of both. Biden shares her policies - but is an appealing politician. Seems risky to me to push Biden due to his old-school, HRC like ways.

If he does run - I'd suggest he come out with a new and exciting pitch like: Joe! - which would suggest high energy, originality, and 'pep'...
 

Sparafucil3

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Yes, it is not rocket science on how the Dem's can re-win the WH. The Senate is another story....
You can concede now or work for it. It won't come easy. You don't need them all, just enough. -- jim
 

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Right. HRC was a disaster. Was her failure in these key states due to her not understanding their pain or their frustration about DC politics - or simply because she's very unappealing personally? Probably a bit of both. Biden shares her policies - but is an appealing politician. Seems risky to me to push Biden due to his old-school, HRC like ways.

If he does run - I'd suggest he come out with a new and exciting pitch like: Joe! - which would suggest high energy, originality, and 'pep'...
Don't undersell that Trump is a fucking first class snakeoil salesman. Sure he appealed to the bigots, racists, and nativists/white nationalist but also he had appeal to those genuinely screwed by the system. The left behinds. Whether they'll continue to support him? Who knows.

Trump's basic problem is sort of what I hit on above. He only won because Hillary was just as unpopular as him but represented what many hate about politics and politicians. They gave Trump a chance.

At this point if he is stuck on 40 to 45% he is not going to win in 2020. A great economy hasn't helped him, nor should it. He inherited it and lord knows he's doing what he can to fuck it up. I did some number crunching some time back again as part of my election preview.

Hillary won the pop vote by roughly 2%. If 2018 is any indication as it was pretty much a referendum on Trump.. it got out those for him.. and against him. The anti Trump vote nationally won by about 7% (note for all teh crap thrown polls and pollings.. that is exactly the margin they had it pegged it prior to the 2018 election. If that 7% margin holds.. that is a 5% swing in popular vote. Care to know what the does to the E.C?
 

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and I would not be the least bit surprised if the Democratic Primaries next year turn out much like the GOP in 2016. What did big money, establishment backing, and all that jazz get them.. smoked by Trump. The establishment don't vote.. people do and the GOP establisment was out of touch with how pissed people were. I would not be surprised that when the dust settles in teh primaries.. it ain't going to be Biden (great guy, helluva life story.. but that man looks like a fucking corpse and isn't far from being one) but big time baggage, out of touch with the anger and passion driving the Party right now. I just don't see it happening.

I think the eventual nominee is one that isn't a front runner now... who is might be. Got me.. just a hunch though
 

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Yes, it is not rocket science on how the Dem's can re-win the WH. The Senate is another story....
actually the Senate is not rocket science either... I also did a 2020 Senate preview as well haha

I can only see two races in the over 10 point partisan lean possibly being completive..

Doug Jones in Alabama who.. well... might need another neo facist neanderthal opposing him to win a full term there.. however it is the Repubican Party we are talking about.. it is full of morons.. so the seat is in play. Note who is leading the most current poll there for the GOP ... yep... Judge Roy Moore. Jones should lose.. but it is entirely possible the GOP screws it up.

and Perdue in Georgia.. if Stacey Abrams had decided to oppose him, this one probably would have been in the toss up. Still needs to be watched due to the changing demographics driving that state purple. Suspect that partisan lean will be downgraded after the next election cycle.

so eliminating all the safe's and keeping those two in mind we do have a very favorable map for the Democrats who need a net gain of 3 along with the White House.

so in the 5-10 point partisan lean category we have the following Senate races in play for 2020

Republican held Republican leaning
Arizona (open seat)
Iowa
North Carolina

Democratic held Democratic leaning
New Mexico
Oregon

One can scratch the Oregon contest and put that as safe.. it would take something drastic to put the NM seat in play so both of those can be considered generally safe.

On the Republican side.. there is where 2020 is different from 2018. It will be the Republicans playing defense not offense.

Regardless of the partisan lean. It is plainly obvious Arizona is toss up battleground state and moving blue.. not moving red.. and I suspect we will be seeing McSally against Mark Kelly. Lean Democratic on that for for a potential pickup.

North Carolina. Again another state which is moving from traditional red to fiercely contested battleground. A potential toss up here.. a lot will depend on who the Democratic candidate is.

Iowa.. as the recent midterm showed.. this state is still quite light blue. Likely Ernst can hold the seat but not a given. Lean Republican to hold. .but a lot depends on the Democratic Presidential candidate and just how badly Trump's trade war puts farmers in the poor house or reduced to taking government handouts.

lastly in the 1-5 point partisan lean

Republican leaning. Democratic held
New Hampshire

Democratic leaning. Republican held
Colorado
Maine

Republican leaning. Republican held
none

Democratic leaning. Democratic held
Virginia
Michigan
Minnesota

scatch all 3 of the Dem leaning and held. Virginia though the lean is small.. the state has become firmly blue at the State and Federal level to the DC suburbs....and its Republican party at the state level a disaster. Michigan and Minnesota are both similarrly solid blue and likely neither seat is in danger.

Shaheen seems fairly popular in NH and will probably benefit greatly from the increased turnout in a general election. Wouldn't wager the home on her winning.. but I sure wouldn't take any bet on her losing.

which leaves Colorado.. and Maine.

Colorado might be another very tight contest similar to what I think we will see in Arizona and North Carolina. Though Colorado has definitely moved into the blue column for Presidential elections.. Gardner is generally well respected. Complete toss up.. a liberal progressive who can mobilize young voters might be the difference in this one on top of the incrased turnout of a Presidential election and with such an unpopular President on the ballot to boot

then there is Maine.. before the Kavanaugh vote she was safe if she chooses to run and not decide to focus on running for Governor. If the Democrats do put up a good candidate she could be in trouble. She really blew her sensible pragmatic moderate image nationally and it seems in Maine itself where millions got raised to see her defeated.

a generally easy path.. there are 3 very logical pickups.. AZ, CO, ME.. and with AL being a potential loss they only have to steal one of the NC, GA, IA as they have no other seats in any kind of jeopardy.

and note that 2022 looks even rougher for the Republicans.. 2018 saw most of the Red State Democratic senators go.. 2022 sees the Blue State Republicans back on teh ballot.
 

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Back in 2018 Nate Silver wrote a very good summary of the 2020 possibilities based on the 2018 results. Clinton went for a southern strategy because she and her team arragontly dimissed Trump's chances and thought that taking southern states that had been out of play since the Civil Rights act would be a great thing for the party and for national unity. She did actually have to govern after winning, unlike Trump the autocrat. I would have agreed with her as I didn't think we would elect a buffoon like Trump. I overestimated white americans.

What is clear, though, is the importance of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (although you could also add Minnesota to the mix). Win all three of them — let’s call them the Northern Path — and Democrats don’t need Florida, assuming that they hold the other states. Lose all three, and even Florida wouldn’t be enough. Instead, they’d have to win Florida plus at least one of North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia as part of what you might call a Sun Belt Strategy.

Hillary Clinton’s problem was that Trump performed well in the Northern Path states — and she didn’t campaign in them enough — but at the same time, the Sun Belt Strategy wasn’t really ripe yet. She did much better than a typical Democratic candidate in Arizona and Texas, but not well enough to actually pull off wins there.
 

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Seth Meyers trying to remind Biden of what republicans are. However, in Biden's defense he is working on trying to swing votes, not make accruate description of the rot that is the republican party in America.

 

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The 'Biden Derangement Syndrome' - is to imagine, like Joe, that we can turn back the clock and that his old (dead or gone) GOP cronies in DC will return to DC so that they can strike new deals with reasonable Republicans. What a joke. This is the thinking of a 'cargo cult'. He and his imaginary plans will never come to fruition because the times have changed. The GOP has gone round the bend and they ain't coming back soon. There are reasons why.

I see that what's happening here in the good ol' USA is what's happening around the globe. Democratic institutions are failing because people no longer believe in democracy. Why? Because their supposed 'democratic representatives' are mainly on the take. These representatives don't represent the people anymore; they represent large financial interest groups. The people have noticed and aren't happy about it. Wealth has disproportionately gone to the turbo-charged upper 1% (or higher) - and everyone else is stuck in first gear, and they know it and resent it. The evidence of democratic failure is vast, largely unspoken about until now, and we'll only see more Trumps until this changes.
 

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The people have noticed and aren't happy about it.
But they aren't going to do anything about it, because that means they'd have to get off their asses and go work in a campaign, or even a party, for change. Instead, most will stay home and Biden will be nominated. Because there's always tomorrow for dreams to come true, so why work today?
 

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Right. HRC was a disaster. Was her failure in these key states due to her not understanding their pain or their frustration about DC politics - or simply because she's very unappealing personally? Probably a bit of both. Biden shares her policies - but is an appealing politician. Seems risky to me to push Biden due to his old-school, HRC like ways.

If he does run - I'd suggest he come out with a new and exciting pitch like: Joe! - which would suggest high energy, originality, and 'pep'...
I said it before it hit the news: Biden/ Harris -it would be an excellent ticket.

It is still early though.
 

DWPetros

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But they aren't going to do anything about it, because that means they'd have to get off their asses and go work in a campaign, or even a party, for change. Instead, most will stay home and Biden will be nominated. Because there's always tomorrow for dreams to come true, so why work today?
Hopefully, you'll not be right about the complacency of voters in 2020 and Trump will be ridden out on a rail.

But if the Dems field sleepy-Joe (the one thing Trump has right), you can count on complacency - especially among the younger voters. Biden is Clinton - and will generate the same level of enthusiasm that she didn't generate. The energy is on the left and among the youth - not in the center or among older whites anymore. Times and critical events are changing, and quickly.
 
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