I am not so sure.
In the past, I have been amazed how fast the Starter Kits sold out. Some of them have been reprinted several times. And MMP will have learned to estimate the demand somewhat to avoid running out of stock of these too fast, so they will likely adjust the numbers reprinted to meet demand.
Look at this data from the ASL Scenario Archive as of 4. Feb. 2021:
View attachment 16415
There is not a single ASL scenario among the 'most played Scenarios of last year', except 'The Guards Counterattack', which is a beginner scenario.
This means that - at minimum - the Starter Kits are extremely popular. You might expect that an ASL community which has built up over the decades might still 'outplay' the SKlers in the number of most played/popular scenarios.
And even within the SK scenarios, it is the S1 to S10 which see the highest number of playings. This might be interpreted that there is a continuous influx of new SK players as those 'sticking' to SK will move on to higher SK scenario numbers.
Yet even higher numbered SK scenarios feature in the most-played list. This can mean two things: First, it could mean that players stick to SK and do not consider ASL. It could also mean that people like SK a lot and at least some of them will move on to ASL. Probably, both assumptions are true.
Now look at the 'All time' most played:
View attachment 16416
This is what really astonished me:
These are all 'beginner' scenarios. But 5 out of 10 in here are Starter Kit scenarios. The SK playings with 628 outnumber the ASL playings with 582, despite SK being much much younger than ASL. Again, this gives us a clue that SK seems to be very popular.
And once more, I am pretty sure that a constant fraction of SK players will move on to ASL to provide 'new blood'.
Finally, let's have a look at ROAR:
I have looked at the
TOP 50 Most played 2019 (no more current data available).
Rank 11: Retaking Vierville (S1), 27 playings
Rank 26: Commando Schenke (126), 15 playings
Rank 27: Fighting Withdrawal (1), 15 playings
Rank 28: Simple Equation (S3), 15 playings
Rank 32: War of the Rats (S2), 14 playings
Rank 46: The Puma Prowls (T2), 11 playings
In the TOP 50 of 2019, more than 10% are beginner scenarios which might have us deduce that there is a new influx of SK and ASL players.
Comparing 'TOP 50 ROAR 2019' with 'ASL Scenario Archive - Last Year (as of 4. Feb. 2021)', we see that the reported numbers are smaller on ROAR. This will either mean, that since 2019 more players are getting into SK play and/or that more people use the 'ASL Scenario Archive' and the role of 'ROAR' is diminishing. It might also tell us, that the 'older' and more established players stick to ROAR, as the most played scenarios are much more ASL than on the 'ASL Scenario Archive'.
Still, even looking at ROAR of 2019, there is not an insignificant number of 'beginner scenarios' played which hints at a new influx of new players. Of course, not all of these will stick with ASLSK and/or ASL, but some will.
So as a bottom line, I believe there might be more influx to ASL that we might be aware of. Not even to mention what's going on in China and areas that do simply not 'show' in a forum like GameSquad on which we are often prone to base our assumptions.
von Marwitz