Too early?

Brian W

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Note that in case of a tie (and I think there is a not unreasonable possibility) the election goes to the House of Representatives, but is controlled by the state delegation, not the majority, meaning that the republicans win in that situation in my calculation, putting Trump back in power.
 

Sparky

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very nice Brian... agree with that. To mirror what you have.. here is the election preview for 2020 I did right after the midterms once some trends we knew were ungoing sort of really manifested themselves...

and so begins the preview of the rapidly upcoming 2020 election campaign to end all previews hah....

so where to start.. of course.. with 2016. The map of that result

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looks impressive... until one looks deeper... taking the states out that were razor thin.. less than 1% difference.. this is how close 2016 was.

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before breaking all those down for those will likely decide the election again we'll go a bit further back and take a look at those states which were battlefields then and for the most part will be in 2020. Let's take a look at those with a 1% - 5% difference for flips in these could nullify fips in the razor thin column

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and just for kicks.. for demographic changes are very real and states over time will be moving from blue and red to purple and some from purple to either red or blue. So taking out the 5%-10% which could be in play in the right circumstances range leaving us the pretty much rock solid Blue and solid Red that would even vote for Joe Stalin or ol' Adolf if either were on the ballot haha.

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next up.. working way back up state by state to the razor thin....
 

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so there is the 5%-10%r's. So in a normal election.. ie Trump remains being Trump and Republicans Republicans short view political genius's and long view fucking idiots....and the Democrats don't revert to f**king up wet dreams as they have shown the ability to do in the past.... and more to the point don't nominate Hillary Clinton or completely screw the pooch again we can reasonable assume...

Virginia has been trending blue for 3 elections now and most recently over 2017 which had major flips from solid Republican at the state level to being a split dead even toss up.. as well as flipping 3 House seats in 2018. It is very safe to color it blue...

Georgia is becoming purple but likely still an election cycle or two from truly becoming a battleground. However if Abrams makes a run for Senate in 2020 and really gets out the vote as she for Gov this year.. it could be in play. Leaving it Red .. but it could change...

Ohio? Hard to see much reason the Democrats flip that.. they can in the right circumstances.. but really is too much a stretch right now to consider it in play. That is a state, more so than any other than has moved from purple.. not to blue.. but to red, Keeping that Red but far from solid for a Democrat with a populist economic message of the worker being sh*t on.. not by immigrants but by corporate America and the .1%rs (ie Trump's worst nightmare for that is.. umm... him) pushed by one like Liz Warren.. could flip that state.

New Mexico.. much like Virginia. Tighter than the rock solid.. but not really in play unless the Democratic Party sh*ts the bed. Coloring that blue...

then comes the most two most interesting...

Texas. Of course it gets colored Red. but suspect it makes the jump in 2020 on its way to purple status to the 1%-5% column for the future 2024 election preview haha. That state is going to be a huge .. read fatal...problem for the Republican Party.. but I don't see it being so yet in 2020.

Then there is Iowa... look no further than the 2018 midterms..which went near blue across the board... in that state more than perhaps any other the 2016 election results and Trump's large victory might be an outlier..I'm leaving that as a battleground and uncolored.

so where does that leave us before moving to the generally considered 'battleground' states?

pretty much dead even... but with the potential to swing more blue than red...

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leaving out again the razor thin for very last... going to the large group of battlegrounds in the 1% to 5% range

Florida? easy one there.. no color.. truly a toss up.. an coin flip... I think Biden more moderate stance might have the best chance to beat Trump there as the economic sword of Warren might not resonate as well there as it might in the rust belt and west.. Harris? TBD

Minnesota? that was one of the very under the radar stories of 2016.. how that bastion of progressive politics nearly voted for Trump. Leaving it blank as the 2018 midterms hinted at good even split.. but do think it will still remain blue for reason I'll get more into with the razor thin.. for even though it didn't flip like the others did... i think much of the same was in play there. The closeness was a bit of an outlier... but without a decisive result (not counting the Senate) it is safest to leave it as a very much in play battlefield. However Trump will be having to play so much defense elsewhere to protect his narrow margin in states he won.. don't see him being able to invest much to play offense there.

Nebraskas 2nd Congressional District... 1 electoral vote. Very close.. but they held the seat this week. No reason to see it flipping in 2020. Coloring that red.

Nevada and Colorado. Those are two that is moving quickly from purple to blue and following Virginia's path to generally solid blue. Much like Ohio in the opposite direction.. could be in play but not really likely....coloring both blue from even though in the right circumstance the Republicans can flip it.. however it isn't very likely.

Maine. Leaving that uncolored but much like Minnesota that went blue... it will take more effort to flip than Trump might be able to manage. Likely stays blue.. what happens with the Senate race there could push that in the firm blue and perhaps into the 5%-10% column for 2024.

then the two true battlegrounds in the 1%-5% range.

both obvously left uncolored.

North Carolina and Arizona. I think each lean in opposing directions. N.C red for continued black white social animus.. Arizona blue for the emerging hispanic vote.. and both will have heavily invested and intensely competitive Senate races in 2020 for potential Democratic pickups. Suspect these two states will be getting most of the 'non Florida' battleground attention in 2020.


so where does that leave us.. not much difference.. but we still have to get to the razor thinnies...

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we come to the razor thinnies... leaving NH out of this for a couple of reasons.. sorry NH.. the 4 votes aren't worth the time (as I mean to show) and even in the perfect storm of 2016 the Democrats still won it.. won't put it as a blue .. it is still a battlefield... but one that had to have particular reasons to push it out of the Democratic camp into the Republican. Considering just how .... hated Trump is outside of his regional core areas.. one can likely expect another very tight but still Democratic win there.

however the story of 2016 was the failure of the 'blue wall' and these 3 states to save America and its values from Trump. So let's look at them and can we draw anything about 2020....



Pennsylvania
2012 Presidential election
approx 52-47 Obama with approx 67% turnout. 5.7M votes
2016 Presidential election
approx 48 and low change-47 high change Trump with approx 70% turnout 6.1M votes
2018 Midterm election
Senate and Gov elections.. 55-42 and 58-41 for the Democratic candidates approx 57% turnout (a record for a midterm as it was in many states).Approx 4.9M votes.

Michigan
2012 Presidential election
approx 54-45 Obama with approx 63.5% turnout. 4.7M votes
2016 Presidential election
approx 47.5-47.3 Trump with approx 63% turnout. 4.7M votes
2018 Midterm election
Gov and Sen races 53-44/52-46 team Blue wins with approx 57.5% turnout (highest in 50 years)

Wisconsin
2012 Presidential election
approx 53-46 Obama with approx 70% turnout 3M votes cast
2016 Presidential election
approx 47-46 Trump with approx 69% turnout...2.9M votes cast
2018 Midterm election
Gov and Senate approx 49-48/ and 55-46 team blue wins. Approx 60% turnout (another record breaker) 2.7M votes.

so the most obvious takeaway from 2018 is 2016 was an aberation.. Trump is an aberation. It isn't the Republican that won those states. He did.

or did he?

let's look closer at those vote totals. .what is the first thing taht might jump out. Yep.. in none of those states did Trump win a majority of votes.

PA
Trump won by approx 40k votes... but over 200k votes were cast for 3rd party... in 2012 there were... approx 70k.. in 2008 there were..approx 62k
so perhaps many are turning to 3rd Party.. so let's see how many were cast in 2018... ahh huh. around 79k. So what happened to them.. we'll come back to that. Perhaps that was just an aberration.

so what about MI
Trump won by approx 17k votes.. but almost 250k votes were cast for a 3rd party.. in 2012 there were...
approx 50k... in 2008 there were.. approx 80k

and in 2018 of those 250k who suddenly found God and salvation in a 3rd party... how many voted... uhh huh... approx 83k

so what about Wisconsin
Trump won there by approx 23k votes but almost 200k votes were cast for 3rd party.. in 2012 there were...
approx 40k.. in 2008 there were.. approx 40k

and what about those 250k 3rd partiers in 2018... how many voted for 3rd Party.. uhh huh..approx 50k

so what can one conclude about that... time for a beer and smoke and we'll wrap up this election preview


(edit.. later did check... very much like Minnesota... in New Hampshire Trump's votes in numbers and percentage mirrored previous elections.. while HRC did not lose it like PA, WI, and MI).. it had a significant 3rd party protest vote which took from previous margins of victory making the state much closer than it appears to really be heading into 2020)
 

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so in those states we've sort of seen that there were hundreds of thousands of votes cast for 3rd party.. yet they were one off votes. Call them protest votes. Those who could and not would not support Trump.. and those that could not and would not support Hillary.

so in 2020.. who will be on the ballot.and who will not? In 2018 we see those Democratic strongholds are still quite blue..

so if as expected Trump's victory there was as much about voting against Hillary as it was his appeal to the great white working class.. here is what that electoral map looks like if Hillary does not go George f**king Romero and end up on the ballot again. A candidate the Republicans spent years tearing apart. A very public figure who was, in spite of her qualifications ... extremely dis likable and on top of it made profound tactical and strategy mistakes (like likely not taking Trump the candidate seriously) that NO democrat in 2020 will do

and throwing MN and NH in that for even though I didn't crunch the numbers, and Trump didn't win it, I'd strongly suspect the same occured in that state that happened in the other 3. (edit which it did as noted)

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and that's a wrap babe... literally...
 

Brian W

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so if as expected Trump's victory there was as much about voting against Hillary as it was his appeal to the great white working class.
You know stringing words together in incomplete phrases is not a logical argument. 48% of US voters choose Trump. HRC could have made that 47% and won the election. But that doesn't mean the 47% have gone anywhere.

And Trump won "white" voters. It had almost nothing to do with class and everything to do with racism. So leave class out of it.
and that's a wrap babe... literally...
So you think the battle ground states should be FL, AZ, IA and NC? Those are the states HRC tried for (and GA), which lost her the election because she assumed PA, MI and WI were locks.
 

Sparky

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hahaha.. now that is too goddamned funny.. let me guess.. you have some anger issues don't you? Word to you man.. careful of that. It will unbalance you.

Trump got 46%... and Romney before him.. oh jeez... 47%

yes and I have written much about that.. I agree racism did drive much of Trump's campaign... and my point was it was NOT a increased appeal to white working class. Sure he won them... so have Republicans for decades.. what he did not do was turn out significantly more voters. The point being... it was Obama voters who turned away from HRC than some great appeal to working class whites due to Trump alone.

and yeah man... I can be a bit coherent challenged.. too much drugs, booze and wild satanic redheads who love wild sex and stealing your soul

at the same time... quite the trick

but even being coherent challenged... I thought it was pretty clear this was a 2020 preview.. not a 2016. The mistakes HRC made are well known.. especially the over-confidence... to the pro's down to the fools with internet access. She underestimated Trump... and underestimated how effective the decades long smear campaign against her had solidified among many voters. They won't make the same mistake twice.. those states I mentioned might be battleground.... but the Democratic nominee does'nt have to win them.. thus they will hammer home the 'blue wall'. Like I said about Texas.. Texas could be in play in 2020 but at what cost.. possibly winning that.. yet losing the states they should have won. No way any Democrat makes that mistake again.

so yes.. I do think those are not merely battleground states... of course PA, MI, WI will be in play.. but as I said.. all things being equal.. as I see them obviously the states that are in play.. realistically.. are those I mentioned.
 

Sparky

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too early? ummm.. very interesting... and was only off by 2 E.V


and that sure looks familiar haha and for the same reasons. Democrats will turn out big time in 2020 and there will be zero overconfidence even if polls in Nov 2020 say Trump is heading towards the largest Predential defeat we've seen in the last 30 years (since 1988)



though I do have to disagree on one point. One thing they say that I'm not sure I agree with... that the candidate may not matter. In most cases it might not... but as I've said. Trump may not.. but believe he can beat Sanders.

I see there have been a bunch of new polls since the debates. Biden takes a big fall, Harris and Warren jump and Sanders slips.. into 4th. It might reflect what I touched in my debate review. He is IMO the least electable of the 4 in that does any democrat (not counting passionate supporters of his) want to take the chance.. even a slight one if moderates/centrists don't turn out in force if Bernie is the candidate. I don't think so.. plus really in order for Bernie to have a chance to even get the nomination. Warren will have to collapse and even then.. much of her support might go to Harris/Biden. To be honest.. I think that is where I myself would go. I like Bernie.. but never have felt he has that 'it' to win a general election in this country.. even with the leftward changes of the last 4 years.. and plus have a suspicion that Trump would eat him alive in a one on one campaign.
 
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