Let's face it, CMSF's release turned a lot of people off of the new engine. Those types of people aren't clamoring to get at CMBN. A lot left the BFC world thinking not good thoughts and didn't really follow the development of CMSF. Maybe down the road they will try CMBN, but they probably won't do it until some real buzz starts outside the BFC forums.
There was talk along those lines here but a lot of people caved and bought the game anyway.
I don't disagree that what you say seems reasonable; I'm not sure there is much evidence to support it. I do see a substantial amount of log-in names at the BFC forum with membership dates from 1999 and 2000 now that were not active in the CM:SF forums, whom I presume have "returned to the fold" despite the lack of buzz, as you say.
It seems like a rich get richer, poor get poorer situation as far as that goes. Outfits like EA and Sony can advertise NHL for the PC and Playstation on prime time television, while small indie companies doing niche games don't even have access to magazines anymore because for the most part, they are out of print.
I suspect the buzz you are referring to is sites like this, but our traffic has remained steady for the last couple of years. Maybe I should have kept stats, but I honestly don't navel-gaze so it never occurred to me to do so. It seemed to me we got a little bit busier just after the demo, thanks I think to Leto and Tanker who seemed to perk up, and a couple of new accounts, and some revived interest among persons we haven't seen in awhile or before like batou, BlitzCanuck, etc. The BFC forum is definitely much more active.
If you mean "positive" buzz, then perhaps you are closer to the mark. We've talked about how crucial it is for this release to go well, and I certainly agreed then and agree now. I thought the pre-release PR was about as good as BFC is capable of doing, if you'll allow me to damn with faint praise. The product is now left to speak for itself.
I'll give you that the forum conversation here is not singing praises, but no one would expect that here. I liken us to the Senate - a chamber of sober second thought. The BFC forum I haven't read enough to form an opinion, but I've noted at the least the thread titles and my impression - which is wholly subjective - is that they are - as you suggest - tentative there as well. Certainly some fans falling down with words of praise and thanks. But also the usual questions and queries.
I have not, significantly, seen any major "this is broken" posts. You mentioned the reaction to the memory leak topic. That may be the biggest indicator that Elvis is right about how thick the ice truly is. These things shift, but right now, I think the people who never played with CM:SF are going to just sit back and enjoy the visuals. Hell, I did when CM:SF came out.
I'll be interested to see how the honeymoon goes in a couple of months when the scenarios are all played and the designers are all struggling to meet the demand for new stuff, now that the really good designs can't be thrown together in a weekend. I did not come to my Uncanny Valley realization in a week or even a month. This story is only beginning.