The British European Referendum

Should Britain leave the EU?


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Paul_RS

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As Rome burns by a Tory flame thrower, Trade Deals are not the only thing we are having trouble holding on to lest we forget, Brexit pain is for the little people only while the elite ship off and ship out:
- Brexit Snowflakes melt in huge numbers causing widespread gushing of crocodile tears due to the heat from Donald Tusk.
  • UK financial sector has shifted at least £800 billion ($1 trillion) worth of assets out of UK into the EU because of Brexit, with consequential losses in tax receipts to HMT.
  • Britain’s economy is contracting – James Knightly of IGN.
  • Brexit's vice-like grip is hurting services industry -Duncan Brock at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.
  • Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) plunges to a 2 ½ year low due to Tory Brexit shambles.
  • 200 000 British applied for Irish passports in 2018 to retain EU citizenship.
  • Tory refused six times to answer a question about what was on offer to Nissan.
  • Cold war plans revived to move Queen to safe location away if unrest follows no deal.
  • Nissan shelving plans to build new X-Trail in UK.
  • Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish.
  • One in three UK firms plan for no-deal Brexit relocation – IOD.
  • More than one in 10 British businesses have already set up operations outside the UK.
  • British car manufacturing investment plunges by 50%
  • Food retailers now tell us we are 9 meals away from anarchy.
  • Royal Bank of Scotland to transfer a third of clients and assets worth billions to Amsterdam.
  • Barclays to move £170bn to Dublin over no-deal Brexit fears.
  • Media companies (Discovery; Comcast; NBC) have moved staff and broadcast licenses out of the UK.
  • Five of the largest banks transferring 750 billion euros ($857 billion) of assets to Frankfurt.
  • Unilever to consolidate its headquarters in Rotterdam, and not in London.
  • HSBC moving 1000 jobs from London to Paris, where it will set up its EU headquarters.
  • UBS to move 1000 jobs from London to EU offices, including Frankfurt.
  • 'May can no longer be trusted': Heavyweight European press condemns PM
  • NHS trusts 'could run out of medical supplies' without Brexit deal. – Birmingham Hospital Chief
  • British retirees in EU will lose free healthcare under no-deal Brexit. – DoH Select Committee
  • UK personal insolvencies hit seven-year high. – Insolvency Service
  • Corporate insolvencies are likely to continue to rise in 2019. – Menzies LLP
  • European Banking Authority from London to Paris.
  • European Medicines Agency relocates from London to Amsterdam.
  • Moneygram will move its EU headquarters from London to Brussels.
  • Dyson to Singapore.
  • Rees-Mogg to Dublin with two portfolios.
  • Farage to Germany with passports for his sons.
  • Lawson holed up in France.
  • Airbus UK about to fly out from UK.
  • Jim Ratcliffe, Britain’s richest man, reportedly moving to Monaco for tax purposes.
  • Panasonic moving its European HQ from the UK to The Netherlands.
  • Sony moving its European HQ from London to The Netherlands.
It’s the great unwashed who will take the hit while the elites sit back sipping champagne and moving their largesse from one offshore bank account to another.

I just love the sunlit uplands...
 

Paul_RS

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Chris Grey at his descriptive best

For the circles we (Brexit Britain) is going round are not a neat holding pattern, waiting patiently for a safe landing according to known procedures. Rather, Britain is in a vicious tailspin, almost out of fuel, and plummeting to the ground. The pilot is frozen in panic, the second pilot is present but not involved, the cabin crew are bickering and the noisiest of the passengers have convinced themselves that the theory of gravity is elitist fear mongering
 

Paul_RS

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David Henig:

What can be learned from the government’s 45 vote defeat in the Commons last night on a motion so anodyne and so ambiguous as to defy analysis?
Well, first, that Theresa May’s Brexit strategy of stubborn procrastination has been holed, possibly beneath the water line. Secondly that, if loyalty ever was the secret weapon of the Conservative Party, it is that no longer; the excuse given by members of its oddly named European Research Group for abstaining is laughingly unconvincing. Thirdly, that the odds against any warmed up waffle on the Irish backstop from Brussels being sufficient to secure a majority for May’s deal have lengthened sharply. And fourthly that the policy of reaching out to the Labour Party is paying no dividends and, with the rejection of remaining in a customs union with the EU, likely never will, however evident the Labour Party’s own divisions over Brexit may be.

The government’s activities since the massive defeat in the Commons last month of the deal May agreed with the EU27 in November look humiliating and unlikely to bear fruit—more displacement activity than genuine negotiations, of which there has so far been none. A dash to Brussels to attempt to dismantle or replace the Irish backstop which was a key part of the deal the prime minister had entered into in good faith, calling it at the time the best deal that was available. To no avail. Another dash, to Belfast, to seek to assure an electorate which had voted clearly for Remain in 2016 that, whatever happened, including leaving without a deal, there would be no re-instatement of controls on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. To no avail. And, third sortie, to Dublin, to try to persuade the Irish government to put its own survival at risk in order to secure May’s. To no avail.

Meanwhile the damage to the UK’s own economy from the reckless insistence on brandishing no deal as a serious possibility has continued to mount. Inward investment has stalled, with a new project by Nissan in Sunderland the most prominent victim. Growth forecasts are being revised sharply down. Billions of pounds of government spending are being squandered in a futile attempt to lend credibility to the threat of crashing out without a deal, spreading plenty of alarm and despondency at home without the slightest sign of shifting the position of the EU27, it’s proclaimed objective.

And the great prize of an independent trade policy remains a shimmering mirage with no substance. Liam Fox is clearly in trouble even rolling over the UK’s existing access to the markets of the EU’s free trade partners by 29th March, let alone having a prospect of negotiating improved access to them. The EU’s free trade agreement with Japan, the fourth largest economy in the world, has just entered into force—will we benefit from that, or from the existing free trade agreement with South Korea or the customs union with Turkey?

In any case none of these markets would come near to compensating the loss of frictionless trade access to the EU27 which take 44 per cent of our goods exports and many of our exports of services. And the government, replying to the debate in the Lords on 13th February, has made it clear that it does not share the view of the ERG that WTO rules would allow us to maintain zero tariffs with the EU while avoiding the dismantling of all protection for our manufacturers against other trading partners. Which indeed they would not.

Everything therefore points towards the urgent need for a change in policy by the end of February at the latest if we are to avoid a disastrous outcome a month later. The first thing that surely needs to be done is to is to banish the prospect of leaving without a deal as a policy option; and to take all necessary steps to ensure it does not happen. The second is to recognise the simple reality that there is not enough parliamentary time between now and 29th March to enact the measures needed to ratify the prime minister’s deal, even in the unlikely event of that squeaking through; and to start talks with the EU27 about the postponement of the Article 50 cut-off date. That postponement alone will not secure a good outcome but it could at least open up the prospect of a less damaging one, either through the scrapping of some of May’s infamous red lines or through going back to the electorate to ask them whether, now that a lot more is known about what Brexit actually means than was known or knowable in 2016, they wish to continue on that course.

It is argued that another public vote would be divisive. Of course it would be; that is what binary choices are. But would it be more divisive than several more years of internecine warfare in the governing party over the terms of our new relationship with the EU? And is it not more likely to bring closure to an issue which is distracting our whole body politic from many other pressing priority areas—health, social care, housing and the shaping of external policies in a world of shifting power relationships and rapid technological change? Of course it would, particularly if the outcome of any referendum was made legally binding. And after the near death experiences from Brexit over the last three years for both main parties would either of them be likely to re-open the matter once so decided?

Huzzah for Brexiteers! Huzzah!
 

Paul M. Weir

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I've completely lost track of where Brexit is at, I will quite readily confess. However I am beginning to get the feeling that Brexit is turning out like Spanky and The Wall, where he got less than he was offered before his moronic shutdown.
 

Paul_RS

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The EU has approximately 20% of the world’s GDP and its trade deals cover another 30%, the US makes up 25% and China 15% with the rest of the world around 10%.
Now after Brexit we could do a trade deal with the US but the average existing tariff is only 2%, so there’s not much to be gained there (you’d expect eliminating that tariff to only increase trade by 0.2%] other than opening our markets to their much less regulated industries, a race to the bottom on standards.
We could do a trade deal with China like the Swiss but that deal forces Switzerland to fully open its market to China for fifteen years before they get limited, reciprocal improvements to their access to Chinese markets. A poor deal.
So Brexit’s global Britain with better opportunities to trade with the rest of the world come down to that last ten percent and 2.5% of that is India, which has no free trade deals with anyone because they’re much more interested in protecting and nurturing their own industries.
So to become ‘global britain’ and increase trade with 7.5% of the world’s markets we’re about to cut ourselves off from 20% of the world market in the EU and lose access to another 30% that has trade deals with the European Union.
It’s a truly terrible idea. But pointing this out is ‘project fear’.
Numbers rounded, source:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-20117/

From a Guardian post. Yet the moronic cretins are still demanding ‘give us a hard Brexit now!’
 

Paul_RS

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The best way of being happy is to float on a cloud of good fortune, money, good health, popularity and charisma, always basking in warm sunshine, peace and plenty.
That doesn't mean you can bring it into being by voting for it.
See Brexit for details
 

Martin Mayers

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Here's a British government report documenting how detrimental a no-deal scenario would be for the UK.


Let's just wait for the fruit to quietly fall into the basket.
I don't think anyone wants a no deal Brexit. Certainly not anyone who understands the implications.

Although, listening to you and others on here crowing like morning cocks comes close to pushing me to the precipice.
 

Vinnie

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I can hear the can being kicked down the road already. Which is no bad thing in truth.
If we withdrew the letter, then we are back in with the same current conditions. We could withdraw it on 28th March and represent it on 1st April and say, we will keep doing this until there is a reasonable agreement. This wpould seriously mess up the EU schedules. The odd thing is, I'm not certain they can throw us out...
 

Mister T

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We could withdraw it on 28th March and represent it on 1st April and say, we will keep doing this until there is a reasonable agreement. This wpould seriously mess up the EU schedules. The odd thing is, I'm not certain they can throw us out...
It may be possible, though cumbersome, for the EU27 to sign a new Treaty identical to the precedent and to leave the UK in an empty legal shell.
Beyond legal aspects, would you expect the UK to escape the political consequences of such tactics in their ability to forge alliances with other EU MS in day-to-day law making?
 

Vinnie

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It may be possible, though cumbersome, for the EU27 to sign a new Treaty identical to the precedent and to leave the UK in an empty legal shell.
Beyond legal aspects, would you expect the UK to escape the political consequences of such tactics in their ability to forge alliances with other EU MS in day-to-day law making?
Of course not, but legally they could do this. I don't think the current shower could organise such a tactic even if they wanted to!
 

Paul_RS

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I'm beginning to see what will happen.

May's clucking around like a mother hen making assumptions that the EU will negotiate on the backstop. But the EU won't. Because they can't. Because Ireland will veto anything that puts the Good Friday Agreement into doubt and/or could lead to a hard border.

An amendment was passed last night stating that Parliament will not accept a no deal Brexit. It was, however, none binding. That could change of May's negotiations turn to shit. It could be re-tabled and moved towards Law.

There will be no Brexit. Because Parliament cannot deliver it. They tried. But could not make it happen.

I sincerely now live in hope of this.

The only alternative I see is exiting on WTO terms. Which we would I'm sure survive. But I do believe it would crash us for a period.

Is there anything I'm totally missing here?
The U.K. can avoid no deal by unilaterally withdrawing article 50 or passing the WA that was agreed and signed by the U.K. and every single EU government. Parliament has zero influence. They can make as many amendments as they like but it will not alter the choices that are open to the U.K.
 

Mister T

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The U.K. can avoid no deal by unilaterally withdrawing article 50 or passing the WA that was agreed and signed by the U.K. and every single EU government. Parliament has zero influence. They can make as many amendments as they like but it will not alter the choices that are open to the U.K.
That would be much better as trade opportunities outside Europe seem non-existant.
 

zgrose

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So I was watching this video. As an outsider, it made a lot of sense to me. Do you insiders think he missed something or is it accurate?

 

Vinnie

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Yup pretty much what the case is.
Those who want out completely hold the whip hand over the government when the opposition politicians are intent on forcing the government into embarrassing positions rather than implementing the result of the referendum.
 

Mister T

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The draft withdrawal treaty was the best Britain could get. As it has been clearly rejected, extending Art. 50 deadline just for the sake of extending it, almost three years after the referendum, would lead to nowhere.

Britain has to surrender one or several of its red lines for the negotiation to restart on new ground if it wishes an extension, otherwise it is not worth the going.
 
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