The British European Referendum

Should Britain leave the EU?


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Paul_RS

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Just posted on the BBC website

Leave without a deal, at least the country will be able to move on.

you have to despair at the blind hope and total ignorance of such a statement.
 

Paul M. Weir

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OK, I give up. Does anyone have the slightest idea of what the hell is going on and any possible way forward? You're beginning to make President Spanky look competent.
 
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zgrose

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The EU responded seconds after the result came in. The EU Parliament’s Brexit co-ordinator Guy Verhofstadt said: “The UK Parliament has said what it doesn’t want.
“Now is the time to find out what UK parliamentarians want. In the meantime, the rights of citizens must be safeguarded.”
Seems to be a common dodge on both sides of the pond. Drives me crazy. From my outside seat, no-deal-exit at the end of March seems inevitable?
 

Martin Mayers

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Seems to be a common dodge on both sides of the pond. Drives me crazy. From my outside seat, no-deal-exit at the end of March seems inevitable?
Unlikely. Neither side wants it. Therefore it will all just be delayed until we can, between us, come up with something acceptable to Parliament. Which, I suspect won't be possible, therefore this must all be put back to the population. The population will possibly have changed it mind. Parliament will then have the reason it needs to say "we tried to give you Brexit, it was just impossible", and trash the whole idea.
 

zgrose

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Unlikely. Neither side wants it. Therefore it will all just be delayed until we can, between us, come up with something acceptable to Parliament. Which, I suspect won't be possible, therefore this must all be put back to the population. The population will possibly have changed it mind. Parliament will then have the reason it needs to say "we tried to give you Brexit, it was just impossible", and trash the whole idea.
So from my reading on the bbc website, wouldn’t an extension/delay require EU sign-off? Seems like once the UK pulled the trigger and set a deadline, no-deal was kinda the default. But I could be missing a nuance so tell me more.
 

Martin Mayers

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So from my reading on the bbc website, wouldn’t an extension/delay require EU sign-off? Seems like once the UK pulled the trigger and set a deadline, no-deal was kinda the default. But I could be missing a nuance so tell me more.
The EU would likely agree to it and UK Parliament can reverse the trigger pull. There is very little, bordering on no, appetite within Parliament or the EU for no deal. They want to enact "the will of the people" but aren't quite crazy enough to want to enact that on a no deal basis. Problem then is reaching a consensus in Parliament and with the EU on how to go about it. I'm convinced it just won't/can't now happen at all.

It was interesting that Sterling strengthened after the vote yesterday. The reason being that the money markets feel that the vote took us nearer to scrapping the whole thing entire.
 

Martin Mayers

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Theresa May Just Suffered a Historic Defeat on Brexit -- Now What?

At this point, is it a real possibility that the UK could call the whole thing off and decide to stay?

Also, is it possible that the queen could intervene in some fashion? Does she have any real political powers?
I don't believe there is any chance we can stay. It would be the end of democracy in this country and believe there'd be major riots. And the Government are scared stiff of this. We will likely extend Article 50 to buy both sides (and it's both sides who need to move on this) time. We'll eventually leave with a trade deal I imagine.

The Queen has no political power and does not get involved in politics in any way, shape or form. Her role in closing down Parliament, accepting the appointment and resignation of PMs and such, is completely ceremonial.
 

tunixx

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I don't believe there is any chance we can stay. It would be the end of democracy in this country and believe there'd be major riots. And the Government are scared stiff of this. We will likely extend Article 50 to buy both sides (and it's both sides who need to move on this) time. We'll eventually leave with a trade deal I imagine.

The Queen has no political power and does not get involved in politics in any way, shape or form. Her role in closing down Parliament, accepting the appointment and resignation of PMs and such, is completely ceremonial.
Elections for the EU parliament will be held in May 2019. The UK will have to be out of the EU by then. So extension of Article 50 will give 2 months of extra time, as it makes no sense if elections are held in the UK.
The UK government had more than 2 years to come up with a plan on which terms to exit the EU. Instead of finding a solution all of Europe is held hostage by a power struggle within the tories. Corbyn refuses to talk to May at all. I can't see what should change that, even if there would be more time. My guess is that we will see a hard Brexit end of March.
 

MrP

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I reckon that there will be no Brexit. It will all be dropped and become The Thing Of Which We Shall Never Speak Of Again. May will be out on her arse next election, she is almost as unsuited to leading a country as Donald Trump, and unless the Tories can find a credible, popular alternative, Britain will vote in Comrade Corbyn by default. What strange times we live in.
 

Martin Mayers

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I reckon that there will be no Brexit. It will all be dropped and become The Thing Of Which We Shall Never Speak Of Again. May will be out on her arse next election, she is almost as unsuited to leading a country as Donald Trump, and unless the Tories can find a credible, popular alternative, Britain will vote in Comrade Corbyn by default. What strange times we live in.
Nope. You're totally misreading the attitude of the country on that.
Never happen.
It's exit with a deal or exit with no deal.

I wish I was wrong by the way, but you'll see that I'm not
 

Martin Mayers

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Elections for the EU parliament will be held in May 2019. The UK will have to be out of the EU by then. So extension of Article 50 will give 2 months of extra time, as it makes no sense if elections are held in the UK.
The UK government had more than 2 years to come up with a plan on which terms to exit the EU. Instead of finding a solution all of Europe is held hostage by a power struggle within the tories. Corbyn refuses to talk to May at all. I can't see what should change that, even if there would be more time. My guess is that we will see a hard Brexit end of March.
The usual partisan European answer.
I agree in part. But, you can indeed play the passive aggressive card as you wish, but the EU are just as culpable in all this as our Tories are.
 

MrP

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I don't think it's down to 'the country' any more, it's back in the hands of the politicians unless there's another referendum. May is f*cked come what may. I don't see any appetite for...well, anything really, just a weariness that it's still rumbling on and seemingly no closer to resolution. Asking for an extension is really just icing a turd - at the end of the day, it's still shit.

Nope. You're totally misreading the attitude of the country on that.
Never happen.
It's exit with a deal or exit with no deal.

I wish I was wrong by the way, but you'll see that I'm not
 

Paul_RS

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Unlikely. Neither side wants it. Therefore it will all just be delayed until we can, between us, come up with something acceptable to Parliament. Which, I suspect won't be possible, therefore this must all be put back to the population. The population will possibly have changed it mind. Parliament will then have the reason it needs to say "we tried to give you Brexit, it was just impossible", and trash the whole idea.
It's looking very much like that, I agree. Still a few more acts of the third rate pantomime to play out in what was once regarded throughout the known universe as the 'Mother of all parliaments' but is quickly being laughingly regarded as a low brow carry on movie.



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Like shooting fish in a barrel. Take your pick from the alternatives below, or just say Tory, we'll know what you mean.

adj dishonest
It we do drop out without a withdrawal agreement (the actual 'Deal' is negotiated after we withdraw, something that is missed by a lot of commentators. Those negotiations could easily last up to 10 years or longer). Meanwhile it would be a slow bleed out of the UK economy as companies up sticks and move out, rather than the cliff edge disaster of no withdrawal agreement.

Brexit could well become a classic case study of how nationalist demagoguery destroyed a country.
 
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