Syrian/Malian/Libyan Civil war....

[trotsky1917]

I am thinking of designing a Syrian [etc...] Civil War Scenario to see if TOAW is up to the job of current simulation and/or predicting the outcome.
I should state that I have my doubts given that TOAW is overly focussed on Materiel and technology and does not stimulate military doctrine, politics or guerrilla warfare very well.
In addition, most of these types of scenarios have been embarrassingly one sided when it comes to their political bias and amateurish when it comes to the political analysis, often because the designer has an axe to grind.
For example a Kosovo/a Scenario predicted a full scale ground invasion of Kosovo/a and Serbia proper, and does not seem to simulate the KLA at all.[I have only looked at the scenario briefly so apologies if this is wrong.]
For the record, I do not have a particularly pro or anti regime bias, especially given that the armed opposition is quite politically diverse - different from the old exiled civilian opposition [name] and the new internal civilian opposition [name]. I, of course, deplore the horrendous loss of civilian life.
I’ll post a few more thoughts later on, including a few notes on Mali as well. In particular, I will address the issue that the good qualitative information on conflicts generally does not come out until the former combatants have become allies again…..

 

[trotsky1917]

Oh, I'll cross post this on the Matrix forum and the Strategist when it is more coherent...

 

[jim_carravallah]

I am thinking of designing a Syrian [etc...] Civil War Scenario to see if TOAW is up to the job of current simulation and/or predicting the outcome.
I should state that I have my doubts given that TOAW is overly focussed on Materiel and technology and does not stimulate military doctrine, politics or guerrilla warfare very well.
In addition, most of these types of scenarios have been embarrassingly one sided when it comes to their political bias and amateurish when it comes to the political analysis, often because the designer has an axe to grind.
For example a Kosovo/a Scenario predicted a full scale ground invasion of Kosovo/a and Serbia proper, and does not seem to simulate the KLA at all.[I have only looked at the scenario briefly so apologies if this is wrong.]
For the record, I do not have a particularly pro or anti regime bias, especially given that the armed opposition is quite politically diverse - different from the old exiled civilian opposition [name] and the new internal civilian opposition [name]. I, of course, deplore the horrendous loss of civilian life.
I’ll post a few more thoughts later on, including a few notes on Mali as well. In particular, I will address the issue that the good qualitative information on conflicts generally does not come out until the former combatants have become allies again…..

Using the TOAW system, Libyan conflict pre-Gaddafi assassination has some merit, as it became an irregular army vs. standing army conflict, with morale in the standing army deteriorating to neutralize their equipment superiority (with some help from NATO to provide intelligence and attrition of equipment). This assumes there was some central control of the Libyan rebels (which, there wasn't until the near the end).

There's perhaps an ability to model the rebels' increasing strength of forces by making standing army unit bases supply points for rebel forces once captured.

However, I'm not aware of a means in TOAW to mimic seizure of equipment by rebel forces when a supply base is captured to increase the rebel TO&E while diminishing the standing army's replenishment capability (e.g. reserve equipment seized at base and used by rebels while amount available to replace attrition of standing army is reduced by the same amount) and / or mimicking the transfer of standing army forces to rebel army forces as morale for the regime sinks.

The conflict flowed in a manner very similar to the Rommel vs. the world North African campaigns during World War II, with rebel strength deteriorating as it moved further and further from supply bases and closer and closer to the government force supply base.

The Syrian conflict is very similar to the Egyptian part of Arab spring or Gandhi's efforts to thwart British rule in India in that the populace simply stopped cooperating with the rulers.

In Egypt and India, the ruling class largely tried to control the effort without overt violence (less overt violence in Egypt, more in India), and in Syria the regime is trying to use significant amounts of violence to beat the populace into submission.

Can't mimic what amounts to a sit down strike in TOAW.

Not as familiar with the operational aspects of the Malian conflict (result of living in the US where the news outlets believe the world revolves around us unless the news providers can divine Simple Simon concept of Democracy vs. dictator). I note the rebels seized territory by a coup d'etat , but it appears that rebel several factions fight among themselves, lending little to create a red vs. blue conflict in TOAW.

If the three are to be linked, I don't see any hope other than creating an artificial John Connor figure to take control of three separate events to mimic them being one conflict (so one player can be the rebel side) and another artificial being to keep control of the three regimes sucking resources from the masses (perhaps The World Bank?).

Take care,

jim

 

[trotsky1917]

I never intended for my stillborn project to be a linked game -they were just three different examples of current conflict.
BTW I always thought that the supposed parallels between the Libyan theatre in ww2 and the civil war were that valid, not least because journalists have a habit of using terrible cliché’s when describing conflict. My hunch is the large part of the defecting soldiers where actually fence sitting, either for ethical reasons [did not want to kill there own people] or because they were hedging their bets, and thus left amateurs to do most of the fighting, who paid a heavy price in their on the job training. As for the TOAW limitations, I am not convinced that within the 600+ or so TOAW scenarios there are not examples of
“means in [which sic]TOAW to mimic seizure of equipment by rebel forces… or mimicking the transfer of standing army forces to rebel army forces as morale for the regime sinks.”
Especially in hypothetical/fantasy conflicts, but I will have to get back to you on that…

Thanks for the reply, may stimulate more thinking from me...

 

[trotsky1917]

I never intended for my stillborn project to be a linked game -they were just three different examples of current conflict.
Not least because they all very different conflicts. My main intention was to ask whether Toaw could be usefully used to stimulate currrent events....

In Syria's case the risks of regional [or even greater] escalation are ever present....

 

[trotsky1917]

I never intended for my stillborn project to be a linked game -they were just three different examples of current conflict.
Not least because they all very different conflicts. My main intention was to ask whether Toaw could be usefully used to stimulate currrent events....

In Syria's case the risks of regional [or even greater] escalation are ever present....

Besides Mali just gone hot.... I hate to be proofed right especially when so many innocents are going to die...