Here's a tactical question
This is Day 2 .. Night, IJA has the attack chit.
USMC options -
1. Setup one hex into the forest so they can do a reverse slope with their much higher fire power, so that the IJA can't easily Banzai directly across the creek into the MG nests. Downside is that we can't catch the IJA in the open and cannot be rid of our No Moves as easily.
2. Setup up right by the Creek so the higher US firepower gets the -1 net drm (-1 Night LV, -1 FFNAM, -1 FFMO). So that any IJA movements may be readily seen and the defending USMC can be rid of their No Move and start shooting Star Shells asap. Downside is that IJA can Banzai across the Creek - Stream +3MF, up into the Jungle +4
What would you do?
Note that "up into Jungle" is five MF if it is not raining and the Japanese are Banzai-ing. The COT is four MF, but Human Wave is automatic loss of concealment [A25.23] (and in particular, cloaking [E1.423]). Entering concealment terrain costs an extra MF [E1.51] at night unless using a road or bypass.
One might ask, why are the Japanese attacking across the creek, and what is going to happen if they do? To the first question, on the first night the Japanese should be looking to take any easy victories they can. If the American has not taken an attack chit on the first night, that is already a slight Japanese loss, but there is little the Japanese can do about that. If there are American bridgeheads on the south side of the creek, the Japanese should look at nipping them out if possible. The Americans will be looking to expand these bridgeheads during the next day. If there are isolated American units north of the creek, especially if they are isolated behind a line of Japanese then too the Japanese might look at them as low-hanging fruit.
If there is a clean line on the creek, with the Americans north and the Japanese south, the Japanese should consider what they might gain by attacking across the creek. If the Japanese do create a bridgehead across the creek, the next day the Americans will probably will attack it. Because the Americans will not be attacking across the creek they will have a number of advantages. They know they won't end up on wire (the Japanese did wire the south creek edge, didn't they?), so if they break they can just rout back. In fact the Japanese will be on the wrong side of the wire, and if they are forced to retreat they will likely run into their own wire. Because setup areas will be separated by the creek, Japanese on the north side would have to shift if they wanted to abandon the bridgehead before the next CG date, with the accompanying risk of casualties. It will take time for the Americans to eliminate a north-side pocket, which will be time they will not be attacking the south side, but for the Japanese will it be worth the loss of the units for a few turns delay, especially so early in the CG? The Japanese might consider staging a raid across the creek if there is a reasonable chance for a favorable exchange of losses. Any territory gained will be lost fairly quickly, and probably not at a favorable rate.
If the Japanese do decide to attack across, they next should consider where and how. There are a lot of creek hexes that are not just empty creek, i.e. stream-jungle debris and stream-jungle. Cloaked Japanese can assault move into these, then advance (vs. difficult terrain) out. In stream-jungle debris the Japanese will be eligible for night lv hindrance as well as TEM with no FFMO and no FFNAM and halved FP for concealed. The Japanese might stage a raid across the creek through such terrain to see if they can make a quick profit against exposed units. Even in open stream, the Japanese might consider an assault move-advance-type attack rather than a full Banzai. Halving of FP (and residual) with concealment and no FFNAM is a good reason even if the Japanese ML is not raised one. The Japanese do not lose concealment if they assault move into empty creek even if it is illuminated.
If the Japanese decide to attack, and decide to perform the full-throated Banzai attack across the creek, any attack IN the creek will be at least at minus one DRM. I say "at least" because the Americans have plenty of negative modifier leaders. The minimum attack will probably be a twelve down one (single squad) for a one-in-six chance of a K/2 or better. The attacks will get worse from there, with twenty down one (squad with MMG), twenty-four down two (squad with HMG and minus one leader), and so on. Perhaps a better way for the Japanese would be to send cloaked units into the creek first to draw fire, but still any residual is not reduced for night LV, and the night lv does not affect residual FP attacks.
The Americans might also consider a light outpost line at the creek edge (halfsquads perhaps mixed with dummies) with the real MLR in the woods behind. If the Japanese Banzai, they are hit when they leap out of the creek (PBF with TEM and FFNAM canceling) by the American second line. Perhaps some of the outpost line will be lost, but now those Japanese without American units in their hex face the difficult choice of advancing into the MLR (lax due to having banzai-ed and +1 ambush for advance into jungle) or remaining in place to face two turns of blistering American fire.
In sum, as the Japanese I would probably not attack across open creek, and if I did, probably not with a Banzai, and if I did, I would probably advance units in on a previous turn then Banzai them out of the creek. Having gone through the results for the Japanese, I would probably set up the Americans at creek edge by areas of open creek. If the Americans set up a true "reverse slope" defense (and the Japanese should be wary of HIP units), my likely Japanese attack would be to Advance into the creek on turn one, then Assault Move out on turn two. My personal preference for the Japanese if the Americans are not on the south side of the creek is to let sleeping imperialist dogs lie and spend my time enhancing the defense south of the creek. As the Americans i might even be looking for a chance to get off no move and make a crossing myself.
JR
