Statistics Question

[bendizoid]

Closer look reveals x3 8+3s are better. Actually a 8+3 attack is basically the same as a 2+0 when you shift one collumn left for every plus. So the question is the very close to what’s better x3 2+0, x2 4+0s, or one 12+0? 8+3 goes to 2+0, 12+3 goes to 4+0, and 24+3 goes to 12+0. Crunch the numbers and see:
x3 2+0: 40 mc
x2 4+0: 30 mc
x1 12+0: 30 mc
Hmm, strangely x3 8+3s are better than x1 24+3.
The only chart nessesary is the +0 drm one because all the others reduce to one of these after a shift left for every +1 drm.

 

[bendizoid]

Problem with the charts. A 24 +3 has like a 56% chance of breaking a 7 moral unit and the x3 8+3s have like a 41% chance.

 

[PabloGS]

This is interesting. I always had the intuition that it was better to spread out attacks. Turns out it might not right for higher FP attacks.

 

[RandyT0001]

Problem with the charts. A 24 +3 has like a 56% chance of breaking a 7 moral unit and the x3 8+3s have like a 41% chance.

How did you determine this? A unit with a 7 morale should pass a NMC 58.33% (excluding any leader, etc. modifier) whether induced by a 8 FP shot or a 24 FP shot.

 

[Sparafucil3]

How did you determine this? A unit with a 7 morale should pass a NMC 58.33% (excluding any leader, etc. modifier) whether induced by a 8 FP shot or a 24 FP shot.

That's only half the equation. You have to generate the MC first. Bob's math accounts for that too. -- jim

 

[Sparafucil3]

This is interesting. I always had the intuition that it was better to spread out attacks. Turns out it might not right for higher FP attacks.

I generally try for the biggest shot I can generate for +2 or bigger shots. I generally take as many shots as I can for -1 or better shots. The flat and +1 shots are not nearly as clear to me. - jim

 

[bendizoid]

How did you determine this? A unit with a 7 morale should pass a NMC 58.33% (excluding any leader, etc. modifier) whether induced by a 8 FP shot or a 24 FP shot.

Your math is good, mine is questionable. These FP theories actually are not that good. Kinda like looking at a shadow instead of the sculpture. The real math was already computed years ago on those little red cards. I’m going to rework my way through the charts.

1 FP table (no cowering) vs. 7 moral
Chance the break: 8.33%
Chance to pin or break: 15.5%

1 FP table (possible cower) vs. 7 moral
Chance to break: 5.55%
Chance to pin: 13%

2 FP table (no cower) vs. 7 moral
Chance to break or k/: 15.53%
Chance to pin or break: 25%

2 FP table (possible cower) vs. 7 moral
Chance to break: 13.92%
Chance to pin or break: 22.72%

 

[bendizoid]

More useful than ‘chance to break’ is ‘chance to not break’ since they can be multiplied together and check out different combinations. For example see if x2 1 FP attacks are better than x1 2 FP attack (O drm)
1 FP chance to not pin/break
(No cower) not break: 91.67%
Not pin/break: 84.5%

1FP (possible cower)
Not break: 94.45%
Not pin/break:87%



2 FP chances to not pin/break
(No cower) not break: 84.53%
Not pin/break: 75%

(Possible cower) not break: 86.08%
Not pin/break: 77.28%

So if cowering is possible x2 1 FP= .9445 x .9445 = 89% chance of not breaking
Looks like 2 FP wins with 86% not break.

 

[bendizoid]

The FP tables are very well balanced. Let’s look at chance to pin/break instead of just break.
Chance (possible cower) for x2 1fp attack’s=.87x.87= 76% chance to not pin/break.
Chance (pos. cower) for x1 2 FP attack:77.28 % to not pin/break.

I guess x2 1fp attacks have a very slight edge.
If you need to break them x1 2 FP is better.
If you just want to pin or break them x2 1 FP is slightly better. Sans sniper, lol.

I could see rating a 4 sniper at 3%, therefore take the single attack instead of two smaller ones unless the edge is 4% or more?

Sniper chance at 4= 3/36=1/12

(1/12)/3 chances at sniper activation=2.8%

 

[Actionjick]

The FP tables are very well balanced. Let’s look at chance to pin/break instead of just break.
Chance (possible cower) for x2 1fp attack’s=.87x.87= 76% chance to not pin/break.
Chance (pos. cower) for x1 2 FP attack:77.28 % to not pin/break.

I guess x2 1fp attacks have a very slight edge.
If you need to break them x1 2 FP is better.
If you just want to pin or break them x2 1 FP is slightly better. Sans sniper, lol.

I could see rating a 4 sniper at 3%, therefore take the single attack instead of two smaller ones unless the edge is 4% or more?

Sniper chance at 4= 3/36=1/12

(1/12)/3 chances at sniper activation=2.8%

Bob really nice stuff but you might want to lay off the triple espressos for a day!??

 

[Jacometti]

Many thanks for all of the advice. I almost always go by gut feel as I'm not so good at doing math in my head. However, in this case, I am moving, not shooting. Here's the situation:
View attachment 14101

I'm the German and want to assault move around the rowhouse wall to W4. If I go left it's an 8-1. If I go right it's 2 4-1's from the armor. So, do I have a better chance of surviving the one 8-1 or the two 4-1's? (btw it's moot now as I moved on the tank side and broke on the first 4-1 then ftr'd). However, I'm still curious about if one or the other choice provides me better odds.

The move on the right has shots from AFVs, which can Malfunction. That makes it more attractive to me.