Statistics Question

[Sparafucil3]

(btw it's moot now as I moved on the tank side and broke on the first 4-1 then ftr'd).

Why did it FTR? Is there something off the screen that stopped routing or did it die in a later turn? If it died in a later turn, did it's rout deny the enemy a key position? Did it tie up one or more squads who had to work to eliminate? Did it buy you time in dying? Did you consider all your routing options? Based just on what we see here, the squad broke in W4. The AFV with MA is equidistant to W3/W4 meaning you can ignore that for rout. If you rout to W3, you have upstairs W3 to go to and it could take two MPh's for the FTR to kick. That's at least one roll for a Self Rally.

You could also chose to go to U3. You would risk Interdiction in V3, but maybe you have more options up in that direction? Does it draw his forces away from the VC to have to come deal with you? Sometimes, rout can be an offensive weapon.

Truthfully though, this unit waited too long to get out of his position. He probably should have moved two turns ago. When I play, I look at EVERY FTR as a failure on my part. It still happens to me more than I wish it would, but letting him kill your units without even rolling the dice is bad. Without him rolling, you don't even get a chance at a SAN. -- jim

 

[bendizoid]

Answer is neither. Stay and prep spray fire into the streets then advance out.

 

[Sparafucil3]

Answer is neither. Stay and prep spray fire into the streets then advance out.

Seems like the best answer yet. He would likely face an 8+2 encircling shot so the AFPh could potentially CX. Odds on the Spray Fire aren't great but they aren't terrible either. -- jim

 

[Actionjick]

Many thanks for all of the advice. I almost always go by gut feel as I'm not so good at doing math in my head. However, in this case, I am moving, not shooting. Here's the situation:
View attachment 14101

I'm the German and want to assault move around the rowhouse wall to W4. If I go left it's an 8-1. If I go right it's 2 4-1's from the armor. So, do I have a better chance of surviving the one 8-1 or the two 4-1's? (btw it's moot now as I moved on the tank side and broke on the first 4-1 then ftr'd). However, I'm still curious about if one or the other choice provides me better odds.

I'm curious about how your squad got himself out on a limb like that. Not an enviable position.

 

[Actionjick]

What else is outside the image? I ask because if you have units to the left that might be impacted by the presumptive 8 -1, I would go that side. Now your opponent has to think about it. The odds of an out-right KIA are low, but not zero. If he takes the 8 -1 and doesn't kill you, then his units in that Location will have Target Selection limits. Does this mean he has to break those attacks up? Mandatory fire attacks will preclude him from splitting that attack up so you put him to question. Do you have AFV's to move off screen? Getting his AFV's to fire MG's and such will limit his options while fending off your AFVs? The fewer MG's he has to shoot, the fewer chances he has to put is best AF to you. With one of those AFV's having no MA, that is a juicy clumping of CVP I would find hard to overlook if the scenario valued those things. In the main, as the defender, I want to roll the dice as often as I can with negative DRM's, especially -2 DRM (I know -1 here). If I am facing a +2 or bigger DRM, I want to have the biggest attack I possibly can. The feel comes in the zero and +1 DRM range. Above all, as a defender, I want to retain my flexibility to fire for as long as I can. Once all of my units have fired or have Target Selection limits, my opponent is free to roam about the country and that is not good for me.

Also, I have played a lot with Fort. Those are lessons hard won. -- jim

As has been pointed out very situational. Jim makes some good points and given this unit's dire circumstances I would agree with Bob, prep and try to get something positive out of the mess the squad is in.

 

[bendizoid]

Here’s a way to analyze stay and fire, or go and get shot at.
Looks like he’s in a stone building with four potential attacks if he stays. Assuming you gack the 4-6-7’s prep fire the Russians return with x2( 4+3), 8 +2, 16 +4 fire group from the street. Count up the fire tables with a shift left for each plus and a shift right for each minus.
The two tanks fire shifts 3 columns left off the chart to a zero, the 8+2 shifts two left for a 4, the 16+4 (street fire group) shifts four left for a 4. Total of 8 although I’ll add a half a point each for each zero= 9 adjusted firepower shooting if you stay, even less if the guys in the street are damaged with prep fire.
If you leave and take x2 4-1s shift one right so 6 each= 12 adjusted firepower.
If you leave and take the 8–1, shift one right and count=12 adjusted firepower.
This obviously does not take increased/decreased KIAs into account but they go way up for the ‘minus’ attacks or count encircling problems.
Looks like it’s safer to stay.
Let’s look at the 4-6-7s adjusted firepower for its spray fire into the streets. It’s looks like one squad adjacent and two squads two hexes away. Adjacent squad takes 4 FP, the two squads take 2FP each so 2x2= 4. 4+4= 8 adjusted FP. Currently the lone German squad has about the same adjusted FP as the whole Russian force, and the German shoots first. If their Prep fire succeeds they might have almost twice as much !
On the face of it, it appears leaving is a very bad idea.

 

[Actionjick]

Here’s a way to analyze stay and fire, or go and get shot at.
Looks like he’s in a stone building with four potential attacks if he stays. Assuming you gack the 4-6-7’s prep fire the Russians return with x2( 4+3), 8 +2, 16 +4 fire group from the street. Count up the fire tables with a shift left for each plus and a shift right for each minus.
The tanks fire shifts 3 columns left off the chart to a zero, the 8+2 shifts two left for a 4, the 16+4 (street fire group) shifts four left for a 4. Total of 8 although I’ll add a half a point each for each zero= 9 adjusted firepower shooting you if you stay, even less if you damage the guys in the street with prep fire.
If you leave you take x2 4-1s so shift one right so 6 each= 12 adjusted firepower
If you leave and take the 8–1, shift one right and count=12 adjusted firepower.
Not counting encircling factors it appears to be much safer to stay.

Nice analysis!

 

[bendizoid]

For a better picture remember the idea for this chart:
-1: 1
0: 3
1: 6
2:10
4: 15
6: 21
8: 26
12: 30
16: 33
This is “adjusted moral check frequency FP” or “AM FP”(out of 36), of at least a NMC for each firepower table after the shifting left/right for +/-. So a 8-1 attack shifts to the 12 column and yields a score of 30 AM FP.
Taking two 4-1s shift to the 6 table and get doubled for 42 AM FP.
Apparently the two 4-1s have a considerably better chance of breaking the squad, somewhere around 38-39% better chance. This is the kind of knowledge that wins games.

Let’s look at one 4 attack or 2x2 attacks:
4=15 AM FP
2= 2x10= 20 AM FP

The two 2 attacks have a 33% edge over the one 4 attack.

In conclusion, sure you can say “what about snipers? And cowering? And random selection ? ... bottom line I don’t need 4 decimal places. I just need better/worse and this chart can clearly demonstrate. However, it does work better on the lower/mid part of the chart and in situations with positive TEMs when the K/ s and KIAs go away.
Nice thing here is after you learn this chart you no longer need it because you will see with +2 or more DRMs use firegroups and with +0 DRM or less take as many shots as possible. Looks like +1 DRM is on the border line and is situational.

PS. Notice in all these equations when two squads are stacked together the firepower against them is effectively doubled. Think twice before stacking or face double trouble.

 

[Actionjick]

For a better picture remember the idea for this chart:
-1: 1
0: 3
1: 6
2:10
4: 15
6: 21
8: 26
12: 30
16: 33
This is “adjusted moral check frequency FP” or “AM FP”(out of 36), of at least a NMC for each firepower table after the shifting left/right for +/-. So a 8-1 attack shifts to the 12 column and yields a score of 30 AM FP.
Taking two 4-1s shift to the 6 table and get doubled for 42 AM FP.
Apparently the two 4-1s have a considerably better chance of breaking the squad.

Let’s look at one 4 attack or 2x2 attacks:
4=15 AM FP
2= 2x10= 20 AM FP

The two 2 attacks have a 33% edge over the one 4 attack.

Interesting, definitely something to think about.

 

[Gordon]

This is “adjusted moral check frequency FP” or “AM FP”(out of 36), of at least a NMC for each firepower table after the shifting left/right for +/-. So a 8-1 attack shifts to the 12 column and yields a score of 30 AM FP.

Was this "adjusted moral check frequency FP" concept discussed in more detail in a previous thread? This is the first time (in my short life on the forum) that I've heard the term used. TIA

 

[bendizoid]

Was this "adjusted moral check frequency FP" concept discussed in more detail in a previous thread? This is the first time (in my short life on the forum) that I've heard the term used. TIA

I just coined a phase, fifteen minutes ago.

 

[bendizoid]

One more iteration on the AM FP table, divide FP into AM FP to get the most efficient FP table in respect to MC/FP. I’m going to skip the -1 and zero table.
1: 6 MC/FP
2: 5 MC/FP
4: 3.75 MC/FP
6: 3.5 MC/FP
8: 3.25 MC/FP
12: 2.5 MC/FP
16: 2.0 MC/FP

Conclusion, with 0 or less DRMs the lower the table the more efficient use of fire power. One FP is the most efficient. Therefore with low DRMs break up your firegroups into to as many attacks as possible. Remember sprayfire, (especially with minus leaders! ), both infantry and ‘long range’ IFT fire.
In my opinion, this chart shows what a genius John Hill was when he devised the IFT. Its one damn smooth curve. It also means less is more.

 

[johnl]

Excellent advice, Action jack. Much gracias

 

[BigAl737]

I'm gonna bookmark these posts. Very helpful analysis. Thanks!

 

[johnl]

Ditto bendizoid. BTW the Germans won. J78 Fast Heinz

 

[Fort]

That article really opened my eyes about the dice in ASL.

To put the FP chart numbers closer to the curve change 2 FP column to
.....
....

There ya go thinkin' again, Bob.

Way too much analyzing for me during a game.

 

[Fort]

There ya go thinkin' again, Bob.

Way too much analyzing for me during a game.

One more iteration on the AM FP table, divide FP into AM FP to get the most efficient FP table in respect to MC/FP. I’m going to skip the -1 and zero table.
1: 6 MC/FP
2: 5 MC/FP
4: 3.75 MC/FP
6: 3.5 MC/FP
8: 3.25 MC/FP
12: 2.5 MC/FP
16: 2.0 MC/FP

Conclusion, with 0 or less DRMs the lower the table the more efficient use of fire power. One FP is the most efficient. Therefore with low DRMs break up your firegroups into to as many attacks as possible. Remember sprayfire, (especially with minus leaders! ), both infantry and ‘long range’ IFT fire.
In my opinion, this chart shows what a genius John Hill was when he devised the IFT. Its one damn smooth curve. It also means less is more.

P.S. I think Greenwood was the brains behind the final IFT...and ASL's IFT.

 

[bendizoid]

One more iteration on the AM FP table, divide FP into AM FP to get the most efficient FP table in respect to MC/FP. I’m going to skip the -1 and zero table.
1: 6 MC/FP
2: 5 MC/FP
4: 3.75 MC/FP
6: 3.5 MC/FP
8: 3.25 MC/FP
12: 2.5 MC/FP
16: 2.0 MC/FP

Conclusion, with 0 or less DRMs the lower the table the more efficient use of fire power. One FP is the most efficient. Therefore with low DRMs break up your firegroups into to as many attacks as possible. Remember sprayfire, (especially with minus leaders! ), both infantry and ‘long range’ IFT fire.
In my opinion, this chart shows what a genius John Hill was when he devised the IFT. Its one damn smooth curve. It also means less is more.

Previous chart was for +0 DRM now let’s look at the FP charts for + 1 DRM:
1: 3 mc/fp
2: 3 mc/fp
4: 2.5 mc/fp
6: 2.5 mc/fp
8: 2.6 mc/fp
12: 2.2 mc/fp
16: 1.875 mc/fp

Looks like low attacks of one or two are still more efficient and a sweet spot on the eight table for +1 DRM attacks

Let’s look at +2 DRMs
1: 1 mc/fp
2: 1.5 mc/fp
4: 1.5 mc/fp
6: 1.66 mc/fp
8: 1.875 mc/fp
12: 1.75 mc/fp
16: 1.625 mc/fp

Learned something new, 8 FP is the most efficient attack with a +2 DRM. So x2 8+2 attacks might be slightly better than one 16+2.

 

[RandyT0001]

OK, I think I understand what you are doing. Let me see if I get +3 DRM correct.

For a +3 DRM
1: 0 mc/fp
2: 0.5 mc/fp
4: 0.75 mc/fp
6: 1 mc/fp
8: 1.25 mc/fp
12: 1.25 mc/fp
16: 1.3125 mc/fp
20: 1.35 mc/fp
24: 1.25 mc/fp

So for +3 DRM, the most efficient is 20, 16, 8 or 12 or 24, in descending order.
If you had a 24 FP, that could be divided into three 8 FP shots, would it be better for one 16 FP and one 8 FP shot or three 8 FP shots?

And the others are:
For a +0 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 1, 2, 4.
For a +1 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 1 or 2, 8
For a +2 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 8, 12, 6

 

[bendizoid]

OK, I think I understand what you are doing. Let me see if I get +3 DRM correct.

For a +3 DRM
1: 0 mc/fp
2: 0.5 mc/fp
4: 0.75 mc/fp
6: 1 mc/fp
8: 1.25 mc/fp
12: 1.25 mc/fp
16: 1.3125 mc/fp
20: 1.35 mc/fp
24: 1.25 mc/fp

So for +3 DRM, the most efficient is 20, 16, 8 or 12 or 24, in descending order.
If you had a 24 FP, that could be divided into three 8 FP shots, would it be better for one 16 FP and one 8 FP shot or three 8 FP shots?

And the others are:
For a +0 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 1, 2, 4.
For a +1 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 1 or 2, 8
For a +2 DRM the superior FP efficiency, in descending order, is 8, 12, 6

Yes, I’m trying to picture moral checks per FP factor.
Your +3 table looks good. At least it’s exactly the same when I do the math. You must be good at puzzles, lol. It shows firegroups are better.
In case of a tie, I’m guessing, take the higher table, it has increased MCs and possible K/s that should boost its score slightly but don’t add into this streamlined system. So the question what’s better x3 8+3s, x2 12+3s, or x1 24+3 ? All have the same mc/fp so I think the answer is x1 24+3.