Statistics Question

johnl

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My math sucks. I can grok the odds (probability?) of rolling a certain number on one die, greater (less) than or equal to a certain number on two dice an even these conditions for consecutive rolls. (You multiply them, right?)

Now I am faced with a decision of whether to take two consecutive independent 4-1 shots or a single 8-1 shot. How do I calculate this one?

Thanks in advance
johnl
 

asloser

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Depends a lot on the situation. Two 4-1 shots gives you at least one NMC or better result roughly 80% of the time assuming your units are not suspectible to cowering. And if the first shot gets the job done the second unit shooting can fire at something else.
 

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My math sucks. I can grok the odds (probability?) of rolling a certain number on one die, greater (less) than or equal to a certain number on two dice an even these conditions for consecutive rolls. (You multiply them, right?)

Now I am faced with a decision of whether to take two consecutive independent 4-1 shots or a single 8-1 shot. How do I calculate this one?

Thanks in advance
johnl
Look for the Robert Medrow articles, specifically his first one. It was published in the old General Magazine. Those are all freely available on the VFTT web-site as PDF's. The first Medrow article might be the best ASL article ever written. -- jim

Edit to add: Here it is. Page 5.

All of his articles:
First Impressions - An introduction to Advanced Squad Leader: Infantry training (reprinted in ASL Classic)
Vol 22, No 6; Robert Medrow
The ultimate number crunching ASL articles. This is the first of three done by Medrow for the ASL system. Exhaustive in its analysis of probabilities for the IFT, morale checks, ELR, etc.

First Impressions - An introduction to Advanced Squad Leader: Armor training
Vol 23, No 2; Robert Medrow
The companion to the infantry article in issue 22:6. Exhaustively analyzes the To Hit and To Kill tables, as well as examining their evolution over the life of the Squad Leader system

First Impressions - An introduction to Advanced Squad Leader: Offboard artillery
Vol 24, No 2; Robert Medrow
The third in Medrow's series of number heavy ASL articles. This one deals with OBA, and proves statistically that OBA usage consists of more than drawing consecutive red chits, no matter what your personal experience may be.
 
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Actionjick

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Started a thread a while back, "Roll them bones? " that sort of covered this topic. I advocated rolling as few times as necessary but I believe the general consensus was to roll a lot, especially with negative modifiers.
 

Fort

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Two 4-1s are slightly better.
What he said...It is very situational, like every decision in ASL.

I now need to wash my mouth out for agreeing with Bob. ;)

P.S. The articles Bishop linked are must reads for rules of thumb. Although, I think The Geometry of ASL by D. Haley is the best ASL article ever written.
 

Sparafucil3

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P.S. The articles Bishop linked are must reads for rules of thumb. Although, I think The Geometry of ASL by D. Haley is the best ASL article ever written.
What do you know :p -- jim
 

Michael R

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Look for the Robert Medrow articles, specifically his first one. It was published in the old General Magazine. Those are all freely available on the VFTT web-site as PDF's. The first Medrow article might be the best ASL article ever written. -- jim
That article really opened my eyes about the dice in ASL.
 

Actionjick

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What he said...It is very situational, like every decision in ASL.

I now need to wash my mouth out for agreeing with Bob. ;)

P.S. The articles Bishop linked are must reads for rules of thumb. Although, I think The Geometry of ASL by D. Haley is the best ASL article ever written.
Situational is exactly correct. Lots of variables to be considered. Don't become a player who relies solely on statistics, you risk becoming predictable. Sometimes you have to just go with your gut feeling.
 

Fort

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Situational is exactly correct. Lots of variables to be considered. Don't become a player who relies solely on statistics, you risk becoming predictable. Sometimes you have to just go with your gut feeling.
I tend to use risk analysis on the fly tactics. But, I also fly by the seat of my pants...what's a bloke to do?
 

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My math sucks. I can grok the odds (probability?) of rolling a certain number on one die, greater (less) than or equal to a certain number on two dice an even these conditions for consecutive rolls. (You multiply them, right?)

Now I am faced with a decision of whether to take two consecutive independent 4-1 shots or a single 8-1 shot. How do I calculate this one?
You can brute force your way through the probability tree, and you have to, because what is better might depend on your desired outcome (is a PIN enough or do you need a break or even a KIA) and your opponent. Keep in mind that it isn't enough for you to roll a NMC, your opponent then has to fail his MC, too. So if you have to break your opponent, and your opponent is a fanatic elite squad with a minus-2 leader, a simple NMC won't do you much good, so the single 8-1 shot might give you better odds, because there's a higher chance for a 1MC or 2MC that gets dangerous. Against a conscript HS, my bet is on the two 4-1s. But I might be wrong, the human brain isn't build to deal with probabilities.
 

bendizoid

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My math sucks. I can grok the odds (probability?) of rolling a certain number on one die, greater (less) than or equal to a certain number on two dice an even these conditions for consecutive rolls. (You multiply them, right?)

Now I am faced with a decision of whether to take two consecutive independent 4-1 shots or a single 8-1 shot. How do I calculate this one?

Thanks in advance
johnl
Let’s do a quick count, never do this during a game, too much time wasted. I like to call a quick “36 count”, we’ll double the 4-1 count because you get two.
Count each k/ as 1/2 and each kia as 1, then give them weight according to probability. VS one squad:
The 8-1 yields a score of 4 1/2 (call the 2kia a 1kia).
Roll a 2=1kia
Roll a 3= (1 Kia) x 2 (chances for a three)=2kia
Roll a 4= (k/) x3 (chances for a four even if they cower)= 1 1/2 Kia
Total= Weighted 4 1/2 KIAs score

Let’s do 2 4-1s
Roll 2 = 1 KIA (x2 for two rolls)= 2 KIAs
Roll 3 = k/ (x2 rolls)(x2 out of 36)=2 KIAs
Total= weighted 4 KIA score

Looks like 8-1 has the edge so far. I’ll run through the Moral check stuff later, kinda busy.
Situational, the 8–1 might be better against 2 or more units with high moral (eg. Japanese banzai, human wave or multiple squad berserk stack) getting attacked because the “weighted KIA” score raises to 5 1/2.
 
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bendizoid

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Fort is correct in “flying by the seat of his pants”. You don’t need to know an attack has a 56.4786% chance. You just need to know better/worse. This fact cuts through a lot of statistical BS.
 
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RandyT0001

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IMO, other factors that push for the 8 -1 shot - does the target consist of elite squads, multiple squads, 8-1 to 7-0 leader present, MG present, other SW present? Is the enemy player distant, time and/or physically, from achieving victory conditions? If there is a combination of an 8-1 leader, two squads and a MMG in the first couple of turns I am more inclined to take the 8 -1 shot, looking to break and ELR with hopes the squad possessing the MMG does both.
 

johnl

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Many thanks for all of the advice. I almost always go by gut feel as I'm not so good at doing math in my head. However, in this case, I am moving, not shooting. Here's the situation:
14101

I'm the German and want to assault move around the rowhouse wall to W4. If I go left it's an 8-1. If I go right it's 2 4-1's from the armor. So, do I have a better chance of surviving the one 8-1 or the two 4-1's? (btw it's moot now as I moved on the tank side and broke on the first 4-1 then ftr'd). However, I'm still curious about if one or the other choice provides me better odds.
 

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Sparafucil3

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I'm the German and want to assault move around the rowhouse wall to W4. If I go left it's an 8-1. If I go right it's 2 4-1's from the armor. So, do I have a better chance of surviving the one 8-1 or the two 4-1's? (btw it's moot now as I moved on the tank side and broke on the first 4-1 then ftr'd). However, I'm still curious about if one or the other choice provides me better odds.
What else is outside the image? I ask because if you have units to the left that might be impacted by the presumptive 8 -1, I would go that side. Now your opponent has to think about it. The odds of an out-right KIA are low, but not zero. If he takes the 8 -1 and doesn't kill you, then his units in that Location will have Target Selection limits. Does this mean he has to break those attacks up? Mandatory fire attacks will preclude him from splitting that attack up so you put him to question. Do you have AFV's to move off screen? Getting his AFV's to fire MG's and such will limit his options while fending off your AFVs? The fewer MG's he has to shoot, the fewer chances he has to put is best AF to you. With one of those AFV's having no MA, that is a juicy clumping of CVP I would find hard to overlook if the scenario valued those things. In the main, as the defender, I want to roll the dice as often as I can with negative DRM's, especially -2 DRM (I know -1 here). If I am facing a +2 or bigger DRM, I want to have the biggest attack I possibly can. The feel comes in the zero and +1 DRM range. Above all, as a defender, I want to retain my flexibility to fire for as long as I can. Once all of my units have fired or have Target Selection limits, my opponent is free to roam about the country and that is not good for me.

Also, I have played a lot with Fort. Those are lessons hard won. -- jim
 
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