Shot probability success rate.

[Eagle4ty]

Just wondering if anyone has ever done a analysis on what their average shot percentage or shot potential was and what their average success rate was over an extended period of time for several ASL games? I've never really done anything of this sort but my gut feeling is that the average shot taken against a competent opponent equates to a 2 +2 or perhaps a 4+2 shot over the course of a game, and the success rate is around 33-40% (Pin/Break). Of course I do not mean all shots are 2 +2 shots, but with TEM, Hindrances, LV's, etc. they equate to such regardless of the FP employed. Any thoughts or studies?

 

[Philippe D.]

A 4+2 shot yields a PTC or better on a DR<=5 (5 out of 18, 28%), and a 7ML unit will fail a PTC/NMC 5 times out of 12 (42%). Not taking into account the possibility of a 1MC or better, nor of higher ML or leadership, the chances of a Pin or better result on a single unit would be 11.5%.

My guess is that you are underestimating the strength of your average shot - something like 4+2 to 8+0 (almost the same thing) seems more likely. Might not be the average, but it might be if you don't consider the many shots you take "just because you can" when the opponent's SAN is not too high.