Shoot the messenger

Mister T

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Apparently a strike package had been prepared but was called off at the last hour. Will it be reinstated because his BigMac was soggy or to steal the front page from yet another Spanky related scandal? Clearly that moron does not realise that military operations are not like light switches.
Remember that Obama also cancelled at the last minute the strikes against Syria in September 2013.

When reason eventually prevails, i am fine with that.
 

Brian W

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Trump decides everything that doesn't directly and immediately affect him or his family by listening to the last guy to tongue his ass hole. So, presumably he met with Bolton (rumored to be an expert ass kisser) first, then with . . . someone that told him he promised not to start wars?

The crazy shit is that we would use lethal force first against them. Meanwhile, the Russians have proven to be behind the shoot down of MH17 over Ukraine, killing 298 on board.

But Iran shot down a drone!! A drone that the air force really liked. Many mechanics will miss her.
 

Brian W

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I will never believe this administration about a war in the middle east. US governments aren't to be trusted when a relatively honest administration; when the admin lies more than Pravda did, well, here's the thing:

Lies have consequences, just like elections! One of them is, I don't trust Trump's administration any more than I trust Iran's. Insane, but the republican taliban have taken over the white house and now rival the mullahs of Iran for duplicity.
 

Paul M. Weir

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Remember that Obama also cancelled at the last minute the strikes against Syria in September 2013.

When reason eventually prevails, i am fine with that.
I'm glad he called it off, but it's only Friday.
 

Morbii

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The crazy shit is that we would use lethal force first against them.
This is exactly what I thought. They shot some metal out of the sky, so we're going to start killing people? Fuck's sake.
 

Mister T

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It's a good thing that this UAV has been taken down. It introduces uncertainty on the AA capabilities of Iran which makes a bombing less of a walkover than the Sparafucils of the world would think.
 

Mister T

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It might be disturbing, but he was the last défense line. Pence would have gone for it.
He is having a crash course on international crisis management, let's hope he learns quick, because they are more to come. Many more

 
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Morbii

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Part of me wants a war on Iran. One where only Trumpists and their children are drafted and forced to fight. Each other.
 

Brian W

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They'd just hire immigrants to do it for them. And then deport them upon return to the USA. You know, capitalism.
 

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was glad to see reason overcome.. whatever drives those who think that getting involved in a conflict with Iran is a good idea. I mean seriously.. those people should have their heads checked.. then politely excused from the 'adult room' for the rest of their lives hahah.

I can understand the Bolton's of the world.. they live in their own distorted ivory tower reality....but some of the shit coming from the GOP politicians and Congress. I would have thought them smart enough to know what I suspect everyone knows. Sure we'd defeat Iran ... but the cost... just like North Korea. No doubt we'd beat them in the end... but is it worth it when hundreds of thousands could die.. likely 10's of thousands of our own and create a worldwide economic disaster.

and for what point. That is perhaps is a lesson Trump might have learned here.. it is one thing to talk tough and reride 'coddling and molliying' as he said we have done with Iran and that deal he ripped up.. or with the way we have dealt with NK for the last half century but what did the deal with Iran do.. past policy with NK.... kept some measure of stability.. for with Iran like NK.. there really aren't a lot or any military options that don't involve a lot of death and economic disaster.
 

Sparafucil3

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If we are going to fight a war with anyone ever again, I don't want to do it handicapped by insane ROE that make no sense. I want us to do it with over-whelming force, with a clear mission objective, and when that mission objective is reached, I want to see us come home. If we can't have those, I would be just as happy staying at home. We have some interests in the region but there are a lot of other countries who have a much more vested interest. Let them sort it out. Maybe they do better, maybe they do worse, who knows. -- jim
 

Brian W

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I hear that from a lot of armchair strategists. The Russians opperated in Afghanistan for years with a more liberal free fire than we had in WW2, and LOST.

Because they cannot accept that we lost, we must have been cheated by "whimpy" ROE, stabbed in the back (like Germany in 1918).
 

TopT

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I hear that from a lot of armchair strategists. The Russians opperated in Afghanistan for years with a more liberal free fire than we had in WW2, and LOST.

Because they cannot accept that we lost, we must have been cheated by "whimpy" ROE, stabbed in the back (like Germany in 1918).
You need to read "The Bear went over the Mountain". The Russians might have had a liberal free fire but they definitely had severe tactical techniques in that they never adjusted. The rebels would hit them at the same spot almost every time and once they couldn't use the Hind's anymore the Russian's knew every mission was going to be trouble. We adjusted constantly.

WE didn't lose anything. If the poliyicians would invest the manpower once again, we would put the Taliban on their ass again. I know that is not going to happen but just because you survive with 10% of your original force doesn't mean the Taliban won anything.
 

Paul M. Weir

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I'm seeing reports that we have Tucker Carlson to thank for convincing Spanky to not bomb Iran.
 

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If we are going to fight a war with anyone ever again, I don't want to do it handicapped by insane ROE that make no sense. I want us to do it with over-whelming force, with a clear mission objective, and when that mission objective is reached, I want to see us come home. If we can't have those, I would be just as happy staying at home. We have some interests in the region but there are a lot of other countries who have a much more vested interest. Let them sort it out. Maybe they do better, maybe they do worse, who knows. -- jim

EXCELLENT COMMENT. I am sick and tired of seeing Americans die in some third world shithole because politicians want to "flex some muscle".
 

Brian W

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If the poliyicians would invest the manpower once again, we would put the Taliban on their ass again. I know that is not going to happen but just because you survive with 10% of your original force doesn't mean the Taliban won anything.
And yet, they will be in charge of the country within a year of us leaving. So what did we win for all that money and death? What did all of our "adjustments" get us except for fewer casualties in a war we have "not won" (the imperialist code for "lost")?
 

Brian W

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The Russians might have had a liberal free fire . . .
Yes, exactly as I said--the Russians didn't lose for lack of brutality.

And we wouldn't have won if we were more brutal. It is an idee fixe for those who see no options in lost war.

“It’s high time that we put the thousands of do-nothings in Denmark, Holland, France, and Belgium to work on building the fortifications and that we do it with ruthless energy and hardness" Jodl in 1943.
 

Sparafucil3

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I hear that from a lot of armchair strategists. The Russians opperated in Afghanistan for years with a more liberal free fire than we had in WW2, and LOST.

Because they cannot accept that we lost, we must have been cheated by "whimpy" ROE, stabbed in the back (like Germany in 1918).
They "lost" because they didn't set the conditions for victory that were within their reality. As the aggressor, you have to set victory conditions that are achievable with the resources, capabilities, and ROE you have. The funny thing about Iran is they have all that oil and no ability to process it on a large scale. The other funny thing about Iran is you don't need to control all of Iran to control their oil. If I set out to cut Iran's ability to export oil by 50% for the next 5 years, I could do that without much effort. That's achievable within the ROE and what the American people are willing to deal with.

Now, the Iranians get a decision in the victory conditions too. They will do their best to set the VC to something they could do. You know it is likely to be related to oil. They will look to do some cyber attacks. Through Hizballah, they will look to do terror attacks as well. We would have to weather those and seek to erode those over time as well. In the end, they will still be able to claim they were able to accomplish what they set out to do no matter what you do because the bar they set themselves for victory is so low you'll never be able to stop it. The concept of a Westphalian state-on-state war is long dead.

Then it comes down to which side you want to believe won.

That's what I mean when I say "Clear ROE and mission objectives". The Iranians are going to say "we beat you no matter what". Some section of the world is going to say "yep, you did". We need to get over that. It's going to happen. We just need to know we got the expected outcome we sought and it needs to be within reach.

Me personally, I would attack Iran but not in a way you expect. I would flood the market with oil while simultaneously looking for cheap alternatives to oil and pouring vast sums of money into it. I would make oil and natural gas nearly worthless. I would release the licensing of this tech to all the world for free, with no royalties. Make energy as ubiquitous and free as we possibly could. Let's see how well they do under those conditions. Simultaneously, it attacks the global warming problem many people cling to as well. -- jim
 

Sparafucil3

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It's a good thing that this UAV has been taken down. It introduces uncertainty on the AA capabilities of Iran which makes a bombing less of a walkover than the Sparafucils of the world would think.
I am under no illusion's that an attack against Iran would cost lives. I am under no illusion that bombing Iran would be easy. I am under no illusion there would be consequences. I am under no illusion war would be anything less than hell. Maybe next time, you should ask my opinion rather than assume you know it.

I am also under no illusion anyone wants to go there. I am not advocating war. I would rather walk away from the whole region. The British and French fucked over the whole region with the Sykes-Picot agreement. Then we (the US) further made it worse by stepping in to help save British interests with the whole Mossedegh affair. It's only gotten worse and worse ever since. As I said, I would dump trillions of dollars into a way to get off oil. I would dump trillions into a way to walk away from the region forever. I would rely on the fact we have two vast oceans that separate us from the region and move to a much more isolationist position. You should know that if you have read anything I have written on the topic. -- jim
 

Sparafucil3

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WE didn't lose anything. If the politicians would invest the manpower once again, we would put the Taliban on their ass again. I know that is not going to happen but just because you survive with 10% of your original force doesn't mean the Taliban won anything.
The problem is war is no longer simply among Westphailian states. If your enemy is an idea, you can't beat them as long as one person remains to sit on top the pile of rubble to declare victory. -- jim
 
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