Shock/UK question

[revaddict]

An AFV gets Shocked and then after the appropriate dr becomes UK. Before the next RPh when it makes another dr (due to the UK), the AFV gets Shocked again. C7.42 says the UK counter is flipped back to Shock.

If this is the case, then is the earlier UK ignored--meaning that the chance of that AFV being eliminated via that UK is gone?

If so, does this make any sense? If an AFV is potientially eliminated as a result of the first Shock/UK, why should a subsequent attack on that AFV negate that?

Paul

 

[Dave Johnson]

An AFV gets Shocked and then after the appropriate dr becomes UK. Before the next RPh when it makes another dr (due to the UK), the AFV gets Shocked again. C7.42 says the UK counter is flipped back to Shock.

If this is the case, then is the earlier UK ignored--meaning that the chance of that AFV being eliminated via that UK is gone?

That seems to be what it's saying.

If so, does this make any sense? If an AFV is potientially eliminated as a result of the first Shock/UK, why should a subsequent attack on that AFV negate that?

Danger, Danger Will Robinson!!! [flailing arms wildly] You're getting too close to the dreaded Reality Argument Black Hole. :scream: I agree this is an anomaly in the rules, but it's certainly not the first or the last.

Bubba

 

[Larry]

On a shock, the AFV has a 1/3 chance of getting an OK result. In 2/3 cases, he gets to flip to the UK.

On a UK, the AFV has a 1/2 change of getting an OK result. He also has a 1/2 change of getting an elim result.

The difference that I think that you are complaining about is the loss of the chance for the AFV to get eliminated in the next rally phase. So if you have an AFV that is UK, you have to weigh the probability of another Shock result into the question of whether to shoot. This will also depend on whether you are generally defending in the scenario and whether the shooting phase is your turn or your opponent's turn.

Gee, more decision to make!!!

:devious:

 

[revaddict]

Dear Dave and Larry,

Both of you seem to have understood my question (complaint?) precisely.

Yes, Dave, I know the dangers of trying to use reality in ASL. I just wanted to make sure it wasn't my imagination.

And, yes, Larry, what I am complaining about is that my opponent gets to avoid elimination by a UK just because I was kind enough to shoot at him again.

Thanks for the clarification.

Paul

 

[da priest]

..what I am complaining about is that my opponent gets to avoid elimination by a UK just because I was kind enough to shoot at him again...

??? you have the same chance for elim as before..the final decision is put off for a turn though(another turn the SOB can't shoot back at you). So you gain rather than lose.:whist:

 

[alanp]

that was my first impression, too, da Priest. But, look, next RPh the AFV has a 2/3 chance of being OK; if it hadn't been shot at the second time, next RPh it would have had a 1/2 of elimination.

Yes, it's possible that its fate is undetermined for another player turn but it's also more likely that it's immediate fate is going to be OK.

Am I understanding the situation? does this belong in the 'do ASLers understand probabilities? thread?

 

[Larry]

The probability of a shocked unit returning to action is 33.3%.

The probability that a UK vehicle returning to action is 50%.

The overall chance of a shocked vehicle making it back into aciton is 66.7% in either one RPh or two.

Shoot again and cause another shock -- if the player rolls a 3, you guessed right. If he rolls a 1 or 2, it didn't matter. If he rolls a 4-6 on the new shock roll, you missed a kill in that phase.

Firing at a UK vehicle can be justified if a good likelihood of a kill exists and no other shots present themselves or the vehicle is not HD so that a chance of immobilization exists.

 

[alanp]

Thanks, Larry!