ROAR - scenario balance - etc.

RobZagnut

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>Of course, how balanced is a scenario if you have to be an ASL expert or have played it 5 times to have a chance at winning?

Never said anything about being an expert or playing it 5 times. Playing it ONCE usually does the job for most ASLers.

>Whether or not you like/trust the results, it is beneficial to the community at large to report them anyway (only takes a few seconds).

How so? I've been playing against the local guys and they're not tournament players. I on the other hand love tournamnets and competitive play. I gear up my game to coincide with Enfilade and Wild Westfest. My record against them in the past 2-3 years is 42-0. How does it help ROAR if I report my results?

I know that is an extreme case, but I've read stories right in this forum where a guy beat another player the first time they played then proceeded to go 0-19 against that player. In too many instances where your face-to-face situation has you playing only one other person, many times you will see where one player is better or a player can grasp a new scenario better.
 

zgrose

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Quite simply, the larger the sample size, the smaller the effect any one extreme factor will have on the result. By feeding more results into the system, the statistical significance of the values are higher. All the first time playings get smoothed out with the 10th time playings and so on and so forth.

When it comes to ROAR, size matters.
 

commissarmatt

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I think balance does matter, and ROAR helps us in tracking balance. I don't want to spend a precious game day playing a dog that I have no chance of winning (or no chance of losing, for that matter). It simply isn't that fun for me. ROAR is a valid indicator as long as it gets enough playings recorded. ROAR also helps me when picking sides in a scenario. When I play an inexperienced player, I'll often look for scenarios that show one side has an edge, say 65-35 or 70-30, something like that, and I'll take the lesser side. It makes for a more interesting game. I certainly hope people will post their games to ROAR, because it gets more valid the more results it has.

And of course, don't forget the other features of ROAR too, like the fun factor ratings.
 

PZchala

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I take ROAR for just what it is...A W/L record. If the record is favoring one side or the other, that may make me want to look at the scenario and investigate further as to why. The W/L record is a tool to help checking out scenarios. I don't use ROAR thinking it's going to show me balance or not.

I think ROAR is invaluable in the sense that such a record only increases in value as more playings are added. ROAR can't get worse...only better.
 

Harold

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I use ROAR more for finding out what is being played heavily than the balance. I figure if it has a lot of playings recorded than there must be something interesting in the scenario beyond the balance. Not having ROAR though would be a bit of a bummer in that it does create a lot of dialogue between ASL'ers that might not normally happen.
 

Chas

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From a designers perspective ROAR is a valuable tool as it provides feedback in and of itself.
Reading through some of the discussion, I think some try and evaluate every aspect too much. What I mean is this. It doesnt matter if one player is a little better than another or whatever, as scenarios get played over time things like this even out. I have heard guys say they wont report that game to ROAR because of hot (or cold) dice. To me that doesnt make sense. As far as mistakes go, almost everyone makes one or more in every game. Typically the real effect is whether or not your opponent makes you pay for it or not.
Another thing, "Balance" is not something tangible. What is balanced to one may not be to another, and there is no such thing as a perfect 50-50, as it is only good until the next game.
I think people look at scenarios and may think 80-50 means it is unbalanced, and that really isnt the case. However, it provides feedback to designers, and allows players to see what is being played and some results. Now, if a scenario is like 25-3, yeah, it may be a dog:)

One thing to take is that I would like to urge everyone to report their games to ROAR. The more that report, the better and more diverse the database, and thus the more valid the results are.

Chas
 

David Goldman

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As tournament director of the ASL OPEN, for me ROAR is an indispensible tool. It is not the only criterion for selection of tournament scenarios but without it, the OPEN would have to rely on my mostly subjective opinion of a given scenario.

Added to the fact that a single playing or just an examination of a scenario does not provide as much information as I want when I look for recent scenarios that haven't been played to death, ROAR tells me which new scenarios are being played from any particular new relase. That modicum of information in and of itself directs me to scenarios that the ASL public finds interesting.

If a given scenraio has some playings and the results are lopsided, I look more closely at what balance provisions are used. If a scenario from a publication that has been out for a while has less than three playings I can deduce that the interest factor just isn't there and/or there is word of mouth on the scenario that is negative.

Statistically accurate ratings of a scenario's balance is not the only information that can be gleaned from ROAR.

David Goldman
 

ON TOP ASL

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One thing that is good with ROAR is that it seems to be a common place for ASL people to record the W/L stat! It could have been as the AAR's that are spread around web-places with different approaches.

So being an unifying place for keeping stat of scenarios I find ROAR very helpful.
Keep supporting it and register ALL your scenarios.
 

'Ol Fezziwig

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Offhand, I cannot recall: was it the Gnarly Ticklish? I wasn't playing mind you, I was annoying you and Charlee Hamilton at ASLOK while Timbo was taking a break setting up or some such.
 

'Ol Fezziwig

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I don't know; maybe, after further thought, I should revise my opinion somewhat :scream:
I think ROAR does have value, perhaps my aversion has more to do with how it used by others. I still bellieve it is merely a tool, not dissimiliar to a hammer in the building of a house ( or perhaps more appropriate nowadays, a nail gun): something needed, yet not _vital_.

All too often have I seen ROAR records accompany scenario choices for play, in tourneys or informal, yet little do I see, " hey, I'd really like to give _this_ scenario a try" Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this supposed to fun? Isn't the comaraderie nearly as much the point as winning or losing? Yeah, yeah, I know we _all_ play to win when we sit down :skull: but doesn't anyone care to try to buck the odds and play Chestys' Turn or The Agony of Doom?

When I see the same "balance-friendly" scenarios trotted out year after year locally based on thier ROAR rating, it makes me want to :kotz: Of course, this is as much a failure of those choosing the scenarios as anything else, but it appears to be symptomatic of an overall blindness to using ROAR in an unitended and definative evaluative manner.

The past few years, with some folk appearing to want to be the first to review/analyse/evaluate new scenarios/Journals/product, initial opines carry far too great a weight in the opinions of others yet to play the scenario in 'dispute'. While countering opinions are just as valid, I submit actual experience with a scenario should carry far more weight than a casual dismissive wave of the hand. For those who don't want to 'spend time playing something they can't win/lose', I'd say that any scenario, at any time would fit into that category.

Ultimately, the defining criteria for any scenario choice should be whether or not it grabs you by the gonads or not, not by some 'farcical balance ceremony'
 

'Ol Fezziwig

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I don't know; maybe, after further thought, I should revise my opinion somewhat :scream:
I think ROAR does have value, perhaps my aversion has more to do with how it used by others. I still bellieve it is merely a tool, not dissimiliar to a hammer in the building of a house ( or perhaps more appropriate nowadays, a nail gun): something needed, yet not _vital_.

All too often have I seen ROAR records accompany scenario choices for play, in tourneys or informal, yet little do I see, " hey, I'd really like to give _this_ scenario a try" Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this supposed to fun? Isn't the comaraderie nearly as much the point as winning or losing? Yeah, yeah, I know we _all_ play to win when we sit down :skull: but doesn't anyone care to try to buck the odds and play Chestys' Turn or The Agony of Doom?

When I see the same "balance-friendly" scenarios trotted out year after year locally based on thier ROAR rating, it makes me want to :kotz: Of course, this is as much a failure of those choosing the scenarios as anything else, but it appears to be symptomatic of an overall blindness to using ROAR in an unintended and definative evaluative manner.

The past few years, with some folk appearing to want to be the first to review/analyse/evaluate new scenarios/Journals/product, initial opines carry far too great a weight in the opinions of others yet to play the scenario in 'dispute'. While countering opinions are just as valid, I submit actual experience with a scenario should carry far more weight than a casual dismissive wave of the hand. For those who don't want to 'spend time playing something they can't win/lose', I'd say that any scenario, at any time would fit into that category.

Ultimately, the defining criteria for any scenario choice should be whether or not it grabs you by the gonads or not, not by some 'farcical balance ceremony'
 

da priest

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Robert Wolkey said:
..My record against them in the past 2-3 years is 42-0. How does it help ROAR if I report my results?...
Because we needed that to balance Sam B.'s 0-42 record he reported to ROAR! :laugh:
 

Jazz

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[QUOTE='Ol Fezziwig]Offhand, I cannot recall: was it the Gnarly Ticklish? I wasn't playing mind you, I was annoying you and Charlee Hamilton at ASLOK while Timbo was taking a break setting up or some such.[/QUOTE]

Ah, yes. I do recall a game or Gnarly Tickbath vs Charlie Hamilton...but I don't recall the members of the peanut gallery...older synapses and all....

How much did we pay you to play with Wilson?

Jazz
 

'Ol Fezziwig

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Heck, playing Timbo is always a pleasure (except when you can't drive your vehicles across the damned river-d'oh!!) Of course, back then I had enough hair to require the use of a ponytail and nearly enough facial hair to require a beard braid so even if you remembered me, you'd never recognise me-ah, the long-ago days of youth...
 

Roy

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[QUOTE='Ol Fezziwig]
All too often have I seen ROAR records accompany scenario choices for play, in tourneys or informal, yet little do I see, " hey, I'd really like to give _this_ scenario a try" Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this supposed to fun? Isn't the comaraderie nearly as much the point as winning or losing? Yeah, yeah, I know we _all_ play to win when we sit down :skull: but doesn't anyone care to try to buck the odds and play Chestys' Turn or The Agony of Doom?

[/QUOTE]
Absolutely........ in a sit down Saturday afternoon with a gaming buddy session.

But in a tournament (yes, I know some of you don't attend tournaments), if I am 4-0, and you are 4-0, and our match gets one of us to the championship round, and I say "How about Agony of Doom? I'd like the Germans". Would you really take me up on it? If so, then that's great, but most wouldn't. I wouldn't.

If you are 2-3, and I am 1-4, then you bet, let's set it up and have at it. I'll take the Russians. :D
 

'Ol Fezziwig

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thebigbad said:
.

But in a tournament (yes, I know some of you don't attend tournaments), if I am 4-0, and you are 4-0, and our match gets one of us to the championship round, and I say "How about Agony of Doom? I'd like the Germans". Would you really take me up on it? If so, then that's great, but most wouldn't. I wouldn't.
Y'know, the worse thing is, I just may take you up on it @ 4-0. Depends if I'm feeling really in a groove or not. Tourney play seems to runs in streaks for me, when I'm hot, I'm hot. It might also depend on how arrogant I'm feeling at the moment :smoke:
 

paulkenny

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Roar also has a secondary benefit as it gives publishers an idea of the amount of plays a scenaro gets. SO I say report all playings for that reason alone.
 

Pitman

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I think ROAR is extraordinarily useful and I use it all the time. I definitely do not subscribe to the "less than 50 playings is useless" notion. I think an 8-1 record on ROAR is significant and I will pay attention to it. It does not mean that it will be my sole governing factor in deciding whether or not to play it--but it will be a factor, definitely.

Moreover, I think ROAR tends to reflect reality more often than not, despite issues such as whether or not first-time players or experienced players, etc., are involved. I think ROAR accurately reflected "Priests on the Line" and "Ultimate Treachery," for example. Until people learned how to play the U.S. and the Japanese in those scenarios, they *were* unbalanced, and ROAR reflected that. However, the scenarios had a deeper potential than the initial playings reflected, and this potential began to be revealed with more playings--and ROAR reflected that as well. ROAR is certainly not static.
 

Reepicheep

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pitman said:
Until people learned how to play the U.S. and the Japanese in those scenarios, they *were* unbalanced, and ROAR reflected that.
In such an example it's not the scenarios that were unbalanced, but the players! The scenarios were balanced all the time.
 

Pitman

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You cannot separate the two. If players never unlock the key to a scenario, then it remains unbalanced.
 
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