Risk

zgrose

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Where you do draw the line at risk? Specifically, in a standard ASL moment, if your opponent needs an X DR to succeed, what value of X do you start to question the value of your move.

For me, 6 is a probably go for it and 5 is a for sure.

Obviously some ASL moments have more weight than others, so this is a query against the aggregate.
 

King Billy

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Where there is a chance of a result, take the shot. 2 + 2 is worth a shot.....
 

Martin Mayers

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Depends how you want to play the game.

If you want to look at long term successful outcomes then you should Intensive Fire every single opportunity you can for example. Because, ultimately, over the long term, the results will be beneficial. Bit like Texas Hold Em. If you play AA, KK, KA, QA, JA, 10A, hard every time you get them and those are the only hole cards you ever play, then over a significant length of time you should win.
 

Craig Benn

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Depends if your opponent is using weighted dice or not:cool::p.....but really the risk you take has to be related to the reward. It's usually worth a -2 shot to get into a position to eliminate for failure to rout - but not if the consequence of you breaking is surrendering for instanice. For AFV's I am getting more convinced that you don't take any risks if it means the other guy gets the first shot.
 

Mr Incredible

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it is a matter of risk v reward

If it's a matter of driving into the rear of that King Tiger with a Sherman with a pissy 75 you might take that 7TH they might need to hit, you might not if they have their MA pointing at you and need an 11TH.

If that's your last Sherman you might only want to risk a final 4TH.
 

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My basic rule of thumb is a 4 or less. But that can vary widely depending upon if I am ahead or behind. -- jim
 

zgrose

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>> Where there is a chance of a result, take the shot. 2 + 2 is worth a shot.....
>> If you want to look at long term successful outcomes then you should Intensive Fire every single opportunity...

Good replies but we're talking about the rolls your opponent makes.

>> .....but really the risk you take has to be related to the reward.
>> it is a matter of risk v reward

Hence my attempt to cut off these types of answers with "Obviously some ASL moments have more weight than others, so this is a query against the aggregate." :)
Everyone has a DR that doesn't give them pause. What's yours?
 
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Robin Reeve

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My basic rule of thumb is a 4 or less. But that can vary widely depending upon if I am ahead or behind. -- jim
So for me.
4 or less with 2d6 is like 1 on a 1d6.
 

zgrose

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Original DR or Final DR?
That's actually a great question. Original DR is what I have in my mind's eye. So X (or less) is the number that has to appear on the dice for the opponent to succeed.
 

Philippe D.

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Original DR or Final DR?
Only Original DR makes any kind of sense when deciding on which risk to take. A 4FP attack is a very different beast when you're sitting in a stone building, or when you're walking quietly in open ground.

My own personal limit is between DR4 and DR5, depending on the situation: the consequences of an opponent's "success", the gains to be expected in case of the opponent's "failure", but also what alternatives are available (or will be available if waiting an additional turn - timing is also a big concern).
 

zgrose

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Four to five seems a popular range. Maybe I should reign in my daredevil tendencies. :)
 

commissarmatt

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It's too situation-dependent to give a pat answer. If I have a unit that needs a low roll like a 4 or less to get a result, that's pretty low odds and normally not worth it, but if it's a half squad shooting a panzerfaust at an important tank, the potential payoff is quite large so it makes up for the lower odds. Similarly I may have great odds of success, say a 9-2, 2xMMG, 2x5-4-8 who can shred a nearby Russian squad with 20 down 1 in prep, but if they do so then they're stuck there where the ISU-152 that's 5 hexes away may obliterate them in defensive fire. I realize this isn't quite what you're asking, but I do think sometimes it's worth it to roll even when you need a 3 or less, and other times you're better off doing something else even when you only need to roll a 10 or so.
 

zgrose

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It's too situation-dependent to give a pat answer. If I have a unit that needs a low roll like a 4 or less to get a result...
In case you want to adjust your answer, this isn't a question about what YOU need to roll but what your opponent needs to roll.

So in the example of the MMG killstack, if that ISU-152 needs to roll a 5 to obliterate you in defensive fire, would you find that a safe bet to take that 20-1? Or would it have to be a 2, 3, or 4?
 

commissarmatt

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In case you want to adjust your answer, this isn't a question about what YOU need to roll but what your opponent needs to roll.

So in the example of the MMG killstack, if that ISU-152 needs to roll a 5 to obliterate you in defensive fire, would you find that a safe bet to take that 20-1? Or would it have to be a 2, 3, or 4?
Ah, I see. Still the answer is 'it depends', but if the ISU-152 needs a 5 to hit my kill stack, thus generating a 30-flat, they're probably getting out of dodge instead of sticking around and firing.
 

boylermaker

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If my opponent needs to roll an Original DR 1 or less, then the possibility doesn't give me pause. Otherwise I will pause to multiply (payoff x probability), and use that value for any calculations.
 
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