Removing (a bit of) luck from ASL

Kijug

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We just play that every roll is a 7. Takes the luck out of the dice. It's really. just a strategy game, now. o_O
 
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Luck isn't really a big factor in ASL, so there's not much to remove.

A much worse problem in ASL is people frequently, and constantly, bitching about dice, when they should instead be considering what mistakes they are making, which likely is the real reason of them losing their games.
Don't agree. When an opponent gets 75% DM's on you and you get 10% that is a problem that
is not solvable.

This was with both being in stone locations having a fire fight.

Then there is that 237 that gets a 1,1 in CC against 3 Sturm MMC, 2 turns from the end of the game. Didn't do anything wrong just got diced out.

I agree that one can play "stupidly" but taking risks and a dice bonanza against you are two different things.
 

TopT

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Then there is that 237 that gets a 1,1 in CC against 3 Sturm MMC, 2 turns from the end of the game. Didn't do anything wrong just got diced out./QUOTE]

You chalk that up to that group of men that held out way past any expectations. It happens in real life and should happen in a game.

I complain about the dicebot constantly. The dice do even out somewhat even if you (or I) do not think it does. Nothing beats FtF but this is the best that we have.
 

hongkongwargamer

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One option is to play VASL with real dice. I did that with a few opponents. Just have cameras pointed to your dicetowers.
 

Swiftandsure

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Real dice can be as bad as random.org ones.
 
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Real dice are never as bad as VASL. That's a FACT..

As for OBA chit draws !!!! FFS
 

MajorDomo

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Played about 100 VASL games,

The dice chart at the end of these games has shown the mean to be about 7.0 and a normal spread, as expected.

Now this doesn't reflect that the timing of the good/bad rolls may favor one side in a game.

Since the dicebot evidence is plainly visible in a graph, only luddites can claim otherwise.
 

von Marwitz

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Played about 100 VASL games,

The dice chart at the end of these games has shown the mean to be about 7.0 and a normal spread, as expected.

Now this doesn't reflect that the timing of the good/bad rolls may favor one side in a game.

Since the dicebot evidence is plainly visible in a graph, only luddites can claim otherwise.
Exactly to the point!

Dicebot, precision dice, normal MMP dice from the box - IT DOES NOT MATTER.

The difference even betweeen theoretical "perfect" dice and normal MMP dice is so insignificant, that it lies well within the standard deviation of "perfect dice". I tried based on 1000 rolls with MMP dice. I am too lazy to search for my post going into detail on this. All this dicebot and precision dice frenzy is nothing but SUPERSTITION.

As MajorDomo has pointed out, it is about WHEN you roll bad, i.e. the situation. Not the dice that you are using.

As for the the VASL dice-bot - there used to be the possibility to copy/paste the VASL log-files to be analyzed on the ASL Scenario Archive page. Unfortunately, this option is now defunct since VASL displays the DR results by dice-depictions. Here ist the link nevertheless:


Here are the numbers:

10550

An average of 6.992 based on close to 140,000 rolls.

I know that facts will not stop people from still claiming the opposite. But there we are.

von Marwitz
 

Swiftandsure

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Oh, I just realised that "a bit of luck" is what we call in French a "contrepèterie" (perhaps "counterfeiting" in English ?).
It is a typical wordplay in French, when you exchange syllables or letters - leading to a naughty meaning.
In this case :
a lick of butt
 

Tuomo

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Real dice are never as bad as VASL. That's a FACT..
No, that's a CONJECTURE. A HYPOTHESIS. In order to make it a FACT, you have to PROVE it, or show that it's been PROVEN.

In this case, there's MATH. But you made it EASY when you used the word NEVER. Because that means NOT EVER. LITERALLY, NOT EVER.

So all one needs to do is show ONE CASE where real dice were as bad as VASL and what you said becomes NOT A FACT.

That would be REALLY EASY TO DO.

Now, if all you want to do is point a finger and talk loud, GO RIGHT AHEAD. AND USE BOLD TEXT TO BE EVEN LOUDER. BUT I SUGGEST YOU STAY AWAY FROM LOGIC BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL CALL YOU ON IT.
 
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von Marwitz

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Just accept that about 1/5 games of competent play is discided by luck entirely.
Indeed. And this luck or bad luck it determined by the timing of good or bad dice rolls much more than by the difference of outcomes between "normal" dice, precision dice, and dicebots.

von Marwitz
 

von Marwitz

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No, that's a CONJECTURE. A HYPOTHESIS. In order to make it a FACT, you have to PROVE it, or show that it's been PROVEN.

In this case, there's MATH. But you made it EASY when you used the word NEVER. Because that means NOT EVER. LITERALLY, NOT EVER.

So all one needs to do is show ONE CASE where real dice were as bad as VASL and what you said becomes NOT A FACT.

That would be REALLY EASY TO DO.

Now, if all you want to do is point a finger and talk loud, GO RIGHT AHEAD. AND USE BOLD TEXT TO BE EVEN LOUDER. BUT I SUGGEST YOU STAY AWAY FROM LOGIC BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL CALL YOU ON IT.

All right, pal. I'll bite.

If you are offended by my capital letters for the purpose of stressing the point, my apologies. I should have used bold or italic instead of capitals as the latter can be seen as 'shouting'.

To begin with, please point out to me, where I used the word 'never' in my post #50.

Here's my attempt at math for you, to explain why the difference of outcomes of 'normal' BV-box dice compared to perfect dice are highly likely to be insignificant compared to other factors such as the timing of a (good or bad) DR and the skill level of the player. Yes, it can happen, but it is highly unlikely. ASL is a game of chances as we all know, so I'd take bets on my point anytime.


As for the VASL dicebot, I have provided the numbers. But again, here you go.

10556

Again, a DR average of 6.993 for roughly 140,000 rolls does not seem off to me. On average, it equates a deviation from the "perfect" 7 of a bit less than 0.7 die pip per session.

I know that people have managed to manipulate the VASL dice bot. But we are talking about the norm, where this does not happen and where opponents are rigging neither software nor loading dice. You could now claim that in one session the dice bot rolles nothing but snakes and nothing but boxcars in the next, ending up with a nearly perfect 7 in the end. Highly unlikely, not my experience. Up to you to provide evidence to that effect if you wanted to.

You may call my statement 'conjecture' or 'hypothesis' rather than 'fact'.
Still I stand by what I say: The difference of outcomes between normal dice, precision dice, the VASL dicebot and perfect dice is insignificant in consequence compared to the factor of timing of a good or bad roll, the skill level of the players and possibly balance of the scenario.

Arguing, that there might be rare cases in which this not the case is a pretty lame argument for doubting and degrading the general validity of my statement to conjecture and hypothesis. If you shoot a guy straight through the heart, you could call it 'conjecture' and 'hypothesis' that it killed him, arguing that he might just have suffered a deadly stroke before the bullet hit and thus doubt the 'fact' that he was shot dead. But you wouldn't bet on that yourself if you were called on it, right?

von Marwitz
 

hongkongwargamer

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All right, pal. I'll bite.

If you are offended by my capital letters for the purpose of stressing the point, my apologies. I should have used bold or italic instead of capitals as the latter can be seen as 'shouting'.

To begin with, please point out to me, where I used the word 'never' in my post #50.

Here's my attempt at math for you, to explain why the difference of outcomes of 'normal' BV-box dice compared to perfect dice are highly likely to be insignificant compared to other factors such as the timing of a (good or bad) DR and the skill level of the player. Yes, it can happen, but it is highly unlikely. ASL is a game of chances as we all know, so I'd take bets on my point anytime.


As for the VASL dicebot, I have provided the numbers. But again, here you go.

View attachment 10556

Again, a DR average of 6.993 for roughly 140,000 rolls does not seem off to me. On average, it equates a deviation from the "perfect" 7 of a bit less than 0.7 die pip per session.

I know that people have managed to manipulate the VASL dice bot. But we are talking about the norm, where this does not happen and where opponents are rigging neither software nor loading dice. You could now claim that in one session the dice bot rolles nothing but snakes and nothing but boxcars in the next, ending up with a nearly perfect 7 in the end. Highly unlikely, not my experience. Up to you to provide evidence to that effect if you wanted to.

You may call my statement 'conjecture' or 'hypothesis' rather than 'fact'.
Still I stand by what I say: The difference of outcomes between normal dice, precision dice, the VASL dicebot and perfect dice is insignificant in consequence compared to the factor of timing of a good or bad roll, the skill level of the players and possibly balance of the scenario.

Arguing, that there might be rare cases in which this not the case is a pretty lame argument for doubting and degrading the general validity of my statement to conjecture and hypothesis. If you shoot a guy straight through the heart, you could call it 'conjecture' and 'hypothesis' that it killed him, arguing that he might just have suffered a deadly stroke before the bullet hit and thus doubt the 'fact' that he was shot dead. But you wouldn't bet on that yourself if you were called on it, right?

von Marwitz
Dude, was he referring to you?
 

von Marwitz

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Dude, was he referring to you?
It has been hinted to me that Tuomo might have been referring to Oberst Hausser. Upon double-checking, I found out that I have Oberst Hausser on Ignore, so I might have missed Haussers post that could have led to Tuomo's possible reference to him.

Fog of war. Whatever... o_O

We should rather play the friggin' game.
In fact, I completed my first 😲 VASL scenario this year tonight.

Cheers,
von Marwitz
 

von Marwitz

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Hey, never too late. Still got time left in the year for more!
Indeed. Next FtF game on Friday and of course in November is GRENADIER time (beware of the CAPS...).

Still - normally, I play most of my games via VASL but this year somehow I couldn't find the time and managed only 7 FtF games plus this one VASL game tonight up to now.

von Marwitz
 
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