Red Oct CG3

[STAVKA]

RO CG III Party Streets

What is the point with the design?
The Germans are outgunned and cannot win at all. That is our conclusion without playing it.

In the design the Germans purchase almost everything the first week but cannot purchase anything for the second week.

The Russian purchase options are endless.

What have the designers missed, not even the math - paper design, have been paid much attention too ?

or have we really missed something, a call to any of the playtesters (if any) or MMP, what went wrong?

 

[benj]

They are defending and thus are expected to be outgunned but that is right, with an average of 16 CPP a day and a grand total of 120 CPP things to buy (except fortifications and SAN increases), they will buy everything in a week and have nothing left in the 8 remaining days! It looks like typos in the purchase charts.

 

[Honza]

In the last week they will have to purchase AFV, Forts, Guns and OBA.

 

[STAVKA]

In the last week they will have to purchase AFV, Forts, Guns and OBA.

Do the math, and you will notice that your claim is wrong. Nothing except Recon can be purchased.

 

[Honza]

Nothing except Recon can be purchased.

How so? Can you explain?

I get it now....they only have 120CPP worth of stuff that they can purchase....which will be over in the first week.

 

[Honza]

Maybe it was designed that way. The Germans purchase all they they can in the first week and then hang on like grim death in the second week?

 

[Honza]

with an average of 16 CPP a day and a grand total of 120 CPP things to buy (except fortifications and SAN increases),

Fort and SAN expenses are an extra 37 CPP. The average CPP per day will be about 14-15 because of the terrible historical DRM.

So the Germans will have about 232 CPP to spend but only 157 CPP worth of stuff to spend it on.

 

[jrv]

So the Germans will have about 232 CPP to spend but only 157 CPP worth of stuff to spend it on.

There is also recon, pre-registered hexes, and on-map setup that the Germans can buy. If the Germans max-ed out pre-registered hexes (twelve possible), on-map setup (twelve possible) and recon (thirty-two possible), that would mean they could spend 157 + 56 = 213 CPP. The extra available CPP may be a fudge factor to allow for bad replenishment DRs. The standard deviation from the median for a DR rolled fifteen times is around 9. If your mean value is correct and I have calculated the standard deviation correctly that would mean the Germans can buy everything available within around two standard deviations of their average replenishment DRs. The design may be to allow the Germans to buy everything unless they roll exceptionally bad replenishment DRs. If they roll well they will run out of things to buy sooner (or rather they will be guaranteed to have CPP at game end sooner, because they will not be able to finish spending their points on recon until the last day), and if they roll badly they will run out later.

As for whether this is obviously an error, I say the claim remains unsubstantiated. It might indicate a fairly sophisticated calculation on the part of the designer(s). If there had been, say, five-hundred CPP available then it might be seen as some kind of error. As given it is within the bounds of a thought-out design.

JR

 

[Honza]

As given it is within the bounds of a thought-out design.

That is how it seems to me.

 

[jrv]

If the Germans roll 7 every day for their replenishment DR (not expected, but it will give the general idea) and they have no casualty or attack modifier they get 9×15+6×14=219 CPP plus the ten they get on the first day for 229 CPP. That's very slightly under the 232 mentioned above, and puts them closer to being within one standard deviation rather than two of being able to buy everything.

JR

 

[jrv]

One thing that I just noticed is that the Soviets have only a limited number of attack chits [O11.6231]. They can only use four attack chits in the fifteen days plus the first day "free". Really? Guess what the Germans select. Idle, except perhaps on the last n dates if the Soviets have n chits left. (Although I don't know if there is any benefit for the Germans to select an attack chit, so their choice may still be idle.) That means that despite the CG covering sixteen dates, the Soviets have only five active CG dates in which to achieve the VC, unless the Germans decide to "attack" on days when the Soviets are idle.

That also complicates the Soviet's choices. Do they attack a lot at the end or the beginning with a long rest in the middle, or do they space their attacks out evenly?

JR

 

[klasmalmstrom]

One thing that I just noticed is that the Soviets have only a limited number of attack chits [O11.6231]. They can only use four attack chits in the fifteen days plus the first day "free". Really?

No.

Official errata:
O11.6231: line 1, delete “RUSSIAN”. Line 1, after “each CG” add “[EXC: RO CG III]”. Line 6, delete “; CG III: 4”. After the last sentence, add “This limit applies to the Germans in RO CG III, in which they have a maximum of 4 Attack chits.”.

http://www.multimanpublishing.com/Products/tabid/58/ProductID/343/Default.aspx

 

[jrv]

No.

Official errata:
O11.6231: line 1, delete “RUSSIAN”. Line 1, after “each CG” add “[EXC: RO CG III]”. Line 6, delete “; CG III: 4”. After the last sentence, add “This limit applies to the Germans in RO CG III, in which they have a maximum of 4 Attack chits.”.

http://www.multimanpublishing.com/Products/tabid/58/ProductID/343/Default.aspx

Ah.

JR

 

[Honza]

Ah.

JR

Yes that was one anomaly we spotted earlier.

 

[jrv]

In any event, the totals are not completely out of whack that you can say it's a clear error. The Germans have a bit more than enough CPP to purchase everything in their pot on average. In the worst case they get 191 CPP, which would leave them unable to unable to buy everything, but I'm guessing it would be hard to roll that bad.

JR

 

[Pitman]

Why would anyone design a campaign in which everything can be purchased? That largely defeats the point of having to make choices. The only choices here would be which order in which to purchase everything, not which items to purchase and which not.

 

[jrv]

Why would anyone design a campaign in which everything can be purchased? That largely defeats the point of having to make choices. The only choices here would be which order in which to purchase everything, not which items to purchase and which not.

Um. Yes. The point would be the order, and also the odd chance that you can't really purchase everything. Why would someone design a CG in which there are no purchases at all for one side? Oh wait, Pegasus Bridge. That's not really an argument that it's got an error in it. It's just something that someone with a limited imagination might not realize could be done. But it is possible, and here it seems to be.

To be clear I know nothing about the inside details on the CG. It may in fact be printed wrong. But I have heard nothing so far that strongly indicates it is not correct as printed. It may just be unusual. And so far I have heard nothing that shows it is an unbalanced dog, and in particular unbalanced against the Germans. It may be, but I don't think the "faults" presented so far demonstrate that. I think I will wait until someone who has actually played it presents some evidence.

JR

 

[Pitman]

Um. Yes. The point would be the order, and also the odd chance that you can't really purchase everything. Why would someone design a CG in which there are no purchases at all for one side? Oh wait, Pegasus Bridge.

Oh, I forgot that the Germans parachuted into Stalingrad. Well, case closed, then.

 

[jrv]

Oh, I forgot that the Germans parachuted into Stalingrad. Well, case closed, then.

I'm not sure of your point. The British landed by glider in Pegasus Bridge, at least the units that land on board.The British landed by parachute (and glider) in A Bridge Too Far, but that has purchases. The designers of Pegasus Bridge could have allowed purchases by the British. It is a design choice whether to allow purchases, and it is a design choice whether to make it possible or even likely that all the purchases will be made. I see no reason to believe, based on the evidence given so far, that it was not the design choice made by the designer(s) in RO CG #3. As for whether the CG can't be won by the Germans, either because of that design decision or not, as far as I am concerned the case is very much open.

JR

 

[klasmalmstrom]

...It may in fact be printed wrong...

From a quick look a the input documents, nothing seems to have been lost in translation at least.