Peace plans

Temujin

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Just heard a curious report on the Radio and just wanted to find out how true it was because the web resource connected to the 'statement' didnt have any clear info to back it up.

What i heard in a news report was that Bush was saying 'a new opening for peace, etc' regarding Arafats passing.

But then went on to say Bush said that America will support the new government, as long as they are able to help make it.

The announcers words (roughly) not mine.

So i went to check out some more info and it only said:

With Mr Arafat close to death, Mr Bush says "there will be an opening for peace" when a new leadership is in place.

"When that happens, and I believe that it's going to happen... the United States of America will be more than willing to help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state," Mr Bush said.

So does this mean America will work with an interim government to set up a freely elected government that will be modeled' on US plan? That was what the announcer was eluding to.

What do you guys think are you reading stuff over there supporting this report? I'm just trying to understand what has been said/planned etc as it is fresh news, so im not really looking for an argument or anything, just the facts for now. Once thats done we can take of the gloves if it needs it.:devious:
 

Overseer

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I'm not sure that there are extensive details, but since 2002 Bush has said that the US supports the creation of a free Palestinian state once Arafat is out of power (though they didn't expect it like this). However most people I know who have studied the region extensively suggest that the immediate successor will be not much different, and there could even be significant violence as various groups try to gain power. And never mind that Hamas will continue to be a significant, if not the most significant actor in the PLO.
 

Temujin

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Overseer said:
I'm not sure that there are extensive details, but since 2002 Bush has said that the US supports the creation of a free Palestinian state once Arafat is out of power (though they didn't expect it like this). However most people I know who have studied the region extensively suggest that the immediate successor will be not much different, and there could even be significant violence as various groups try to gain power. And never mind that Hamas will continue to be a significant, if not the most significant actor in the PLO.

Yeah hopefully they can keep the situation at a productive level. Im not sure about this: "the United States of America will be more than willing to help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state,".

I'm all for a free society and a free Palestinian state, but should the US get involved in more than just moral and verbal support? If you ask me thats a huge question in this situation.
 

Overseer

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Temujin said:
Yeah hopefully they can keep the situation at a productive level. Im not sure about this: "the United States of America will be more than willing to help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state,".

I'm all for a free society and a free Palestinian state, but should the US get involved in more than just moral and verbal support? If you ask me thats a huge question in this situation.
If they accept it, why shouldn't the US? If they don't then there isn't much the US government can do.
 

Temujin

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Overseer said:
If they accept it, why shouldn't the US? If they don't then there isn't much the US government can do.
Well there are implications of how it could be viewed by others in the region, it could give rise to more terrorism by Palestinian groups, create more legitimay for terrorist groups in the region the list goes on. Even if the interim government accepts it.

I don't think it is a doable propasition if peace is to be found in the region. I think if things are done better over the next few years/decades then nation states in the region may be able to help themselves and others in the region with that sort of assistence, i just don't see it as a good idea today.
 

sickpup

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Temujin said:
...but should the US get involved in more than just moral and verbal support?
That depends upon whether or not the new state want's any financial aid from the US.
 

Temujin

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sickpup said:
That depends upon whether or not the new state want's any financial aid from the US.
But should aid from the US be reliant on say, as an example, the US condoning which candidates can run?

"help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state,"

From that statement im guessing that theres going to be some legislation 'offered' to them.
 

The Purist

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Temujin,

""help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state,""

Simply means that the US will offer advise on how to structure the institutions. Should they be republican, parliamentary or other? What will be the divisions between the executive, legislative, judicial, military, and religous authority? What will the governmental 'institutions' look like?

This is what the US President is probably talking about.
 

Temujin

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The Purist said:
Temujin,

""help build the institutions for a free society to emerge so that the Palestinians can have their own state,""

Simply means that the US will offer advise on how to structure the institutions. Should they be republican, parliamentary or other? What will be the divisions between the executive, legislative, judicial, military, and religous authority? What will the governmental 'institutions' look like?

This is what the US President is probably talking about.
Yeah, thats what i was talking about, it wont work. If it were to happen in that way i not think it will work, or even go as far to say disastrous for peace in the region.

The Arabs the US/West has problems with, from hostile moderate to psyco fundamentalist (but excluding the leaders of the most violent ones) are halfway converted to the notions of freedom, equality, and a big fat paycheck, why do you think they are fighting so hard against your governments policies?


By their own admission they think that the US are oppressors. Obviously they have a good idea about individuality and freedom.

So if the US gets involved with the 'institutions for a free society', they will only think that that is more oppression.

I don't have to remind you how determied an enemy is when he is fighting for his own freedom.
 

sickpup

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Temujin said:
But should aid from the US be reliant on say, as an example, the US condoning which candidates can run?
I reckon aid from the US can be reliant on whatever we want. If you don't like our terms, you don't get any aid.

Now, having said that, I imagine the administration is going to be much more politically correct and simply offer suggestions, if requested, about what seems to work and what doesn't. They're not likely to impose anything on the folks surrounding Israel. I imagine they'll just hang some nice, juicy carrots out for whoever takes control of the masses.
 

The Purist

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I'm confused

Ditto to what 'sickpup' said.

I think the US will offer advise first and reward positive action second. Positive action does not mean a cloning of US political institution on a new Palestinian state,...that would not work. The Palestinians must choose what will work for them whether it be a constitution or an appeal system.

I think the US government will give financial aid based on progress in ending the violence. The new 'government' will have to tread carefully so as not to appear to be US puppets while they crack down and dismantle the radical elements within Palestine. I doubt it will be accomplished without violence but it has to be done or there can be no peace.

"why do you think they are fighting so hard against your governments policies? "

I'm a Canadian :D A touch right of centre but still a Canadian.
 

Temujin

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sickpup said:
I reckon aid from the US can be reliant on whatever we want. If you don't like our terms, you don't get any aid.

Now, having said that, I imagine the administration is going to be much more politically correct and simply offer suggestions, if requested, about what seems to work and what doesn't. They're not likely to impose anything on the folks surrounding Israel. I imagine they'll just hang some nice, juicy carrots out for whoever takes control of the masses.
Either way its gonna turn out negative.

It's just not what the majority of(or a hell of a lot of/a significant amount of) the world would beleive had happenned, even if it were true, or the worst case scenario was that aliens had taken over the Bush Admin and were trying to conquer the planet. This is the reality, the US has lost trust around the world.

Obviously, your enemies are going to be more distrustful, if the US goes near the formation of any country in the ME in this new age, i can only see worse consequenses had the US not be 'overly' involved. Im sure the US will be expected/asked to endorse the new government, just don't physically go near em and trust and respect the decision of the voters to choose whoever they want.

But before you do that sickpup, rethink your position of not giving a damn about International Relations and blackmail and bribe your way through it till your country is less secure than it was when you were born into the world.

Thats just how i see it.

Ps, the carrot is not a perfect plan, some don't like the taste of it.
 

sickpup

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Temujin said:
But before you do that sickpup, rethink your position of not giving a damn about International Relations and blackmail and bribe your way through it till your country is less secure than it was when you were born into the world.
Oh, I give a damn about international relations. I don’t, however, think we should be giving out money and aid packages to organizations that constantly denounce us and burn our flag, etc. Additionally, to assume that all nations don’t “blackmail and bribe” their way through things is simply naïve.

Temujin said:
Ps, the carrot is not a perfect plan, some don't like the taste of it.
Which is perfectly fine. If they don't like it, we can give it to someone who does.
 

Temujin

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The Purist said:
Ditto to what 'sickpup' said.

I think the US will offer advise first and reward positive action second. Positive action does not mean a cloning of US political institution on a new Palestinian state,...that would not work. The Palestinians must choose what will work for them whether it be a constitution or an appeal system.
Two things, what if they think the Koran is enough, or a indiginous philosophy on governence, that doesnt have the words "kill americans/infedels' in it,. Secondly, perception i important in this issue.


I think the US government will give financial aid based on progress in ending the violence. The new 'government' will have to tread carefully so as not to appear to be US puppets while they crack down and dismantle the radical elements within Palestine. I doubt it will be accomplished without violence but it has to be done or there can be no peace.
Yeah but we are talking abut elections, if the elections are seen in Palestine to be legitimate, then the legitimacy of the other faction will diminish. Legitimacy is a key word in all democracies.

"why do you think they are fighting so hard against your governments policies? "

I'm a Canadian :D A touch right of centre but still a Canadian.
Could've sworn i was talking to a yank :nuts: well im not gonna change the structure of my language on my previous posts. Just everyone else imagine he is.

Edit: DOH you got me!
 
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Temujin

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sickpup said:
Oh, I give a damn about international relations. I don’t, however, think we should be giving out money and aid packages to organizations that constantly denounce us and burn our flag, etc. Additionally, to assume that all nations don’t “blackmail and bribe” their way through things is simply naïve.



Which is perfectly fine. If they don't like it, we can give it to someone who does.

Your loss too.
 

Tiberius

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Temujin said:
Well there are implications of how it could be viewed by others in the region, it could give rise to more terrorism by Palestinian groups, create more legitimay for terrorist groups in the region the list goes on. Even if the interim government accepts it.

I don't think it is a doable propasition if peace is to be found in the region. I think if things are done better over the next few years/decades then nation states in the region may be able to help themselves and others in the region with that sort of assistence, i just don't see it as a good idea today.
I agree with you Temujin. The U.S. should be completely hands-off. If the Palestinians select another hostile-terrorist government or anarchy it will be back to 1948 and start over. (edit: Of course it can be argued that things have only gone downhill since than anyway so that might not be a bad thing.)If they want peace they will have to select it for themselves.
 
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Deltapooh

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Temujin said:
Either way its gonna turn out negative.

It's just not what the majority of(or a hell of a lot of/a significant amount of) the world would beleive had happenned, even if it were true, or the worst case scenario was that aliens had taken over the Bush Admin and were trying to conquer the planet. This is the reality, the US has lost trust around the world.
Temujin, respectfully, your opinion is motivated not by an objective appraisal of American global power, but an personal disliking of the Bush Administration. I in no way wish to censor your opinion, but your constant anti-Bush theme degrades the message of your opinion much the same way the pro-Bush camp does by completely ignoring any political concept beyond "Bushism."

Trust is a commodity given and retracted at the will of the beholder. It is not permanent and is often influenced not by desire, but necessity. In this case, the world is less relevant because the beholder is Palestinians.

I think the immediate future depends more on America's willingness to embrace Palestinians than the other way around. The US is the only country that can really pressure Israel into meeting their objectives.

The role of the international community will be to convince America to uphold its obligation to ensuring a peaceful Israeli and Palestinian society. I think Tony Blair will get the ball rolling today in his talks with President Bush. Those who truly want peace would be wise to lay down their petty differences and try to work to encourage the main foriegn power to work toward peace, rather than blow it off to satisfy some personal grudge at the expense of thousands of men, women, and children who will die as a consequence if we don't find a solution.

I'm not completely devaluing the significance of trust. However, right now, I believe it is more important to illustrate action. Trust will evolve from the steps leaders take now. The longer term future of a Palestinian state will depend on a deeper degree of trust among the Palestinian people, which has not been as consistent as it appears. Arafat saw over the mountain top, and it scared the *hit out of him. Any new Palestine state will need alot of economic assistance and guidance. That must though be balanced with allowing the people to choose their own course.

We can lead them to the water, but must never force them to drink.
 

The Purist

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Deltapooh is right. The US has the ability to aid the Palestinians far more than any nation on Earth. Peaceful coexistance with Israel is the only reality that matters and the sooner the Palestinian 'leadership' accepts that and does something to stop the violence the better. Likewise, if the Palestinians can demonstrate a willingness and ability to combat the attacks on Israel, Israel will be better able to make concessions.

They came so very, very close until 2000, peace is possible.
 

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1) The international system does work on bribes, blackmails, use of force, etc. The liberalist theory in International Relations isn't 100% yet. There's a bit of both realism and liberalism going on (along with a few other theories). The carrot and the stick still apply very well to international relations.

2) The US should provide advise if the Palestinians want it. Otherwise we'd be seen as both not taking a great opportunity and shunning a struggling Arab nation.

3) Also, what would be worse for the extremists? A successful Palestinian State or an unsuccessful one? It's pretty clear. Whether or not US advice and aid are provided to the it or not, they're going to be in a lot of trouble when it comes to recruiting if Israel and Palestine get along to even a minimal degree.
 

The Purist

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The flow of aid money for roads, sewers, schools, hospitals, housing and all other things necessary for a successful modern state will go along way to drying up the recruiting of Arab youth for terrorism. The moderates have everything to gain by working for peace. Sadly, it will probably take a civil war and allying (politically/financially) with an outside power (probably the US) to win this conflict. Israel would need to stand aside and be ready to negotiate a fair deal when (if) the blood stops flowing.
 
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