March Madness 2020

Markdv5208

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SCHOOL is cancelled for me for 4 weeks. MY wife is giving me the choice of EITHER Chicago weekend of March 28 or March Madness next weekend. I am going to talk to Jeff DY as he is planning last I knew of going your way. OTHERWISE I will certainly see you end of July in St Louis
 

JoeArthur

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If you want to do a tourny on VASSAL with SKYPE - count me in please. Maybe this is the chance to try something new?

Here in the UK - nothing apart from when I went to the supermarket the checkout man used hand sanitser after every customer............that is the only change that I have seen.
 

Michael R

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I've let Dan know that I will not attend. I have my wife asking me to stay home. There are two levels of government telling us to avoid unnecessary travel. The world reaction to the virus makes it feel prudent to avoid airports and airplanes for awhile.
 

MAS01

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I've let Dan know that I will not attend. I have my wife asking me to stay home. There are two levels of government telling us to avoid unnecessary travel. The world reaction to the virus makes it feel prudent to avoid airports and airplanes for awhile.
That's understandable, given the confines of air travel. Would you like me to pick you up a copy of the March Madness scenario pack?
 

Danno

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March Madness 2020 is cancelled. In an effort to do our bit to fight the coronavirus pandemic and more importantly keep our friends safe, we have cancelled March Madness 2020. We are contacting those who pre-registered. We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused you. And we look forward to a pandemic free 2021 March Madness!
 

Michael R

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That's understandable, given the confines of air travel. Would you like me to pick you up a copy of the March Madness scenario pack?
Thanks, but the MM crew will mail it to me.
 

jrv

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The game with the corona/covid-19 virus is a numbers game. Reasonably good ASL players should understand that a two FP attack down two is a better attack than a four FP attack flat. They probably know that a Gun with a final TK# of four against a particular AFV but with a ROF of three is a potent weapon against that AFV. These same players should be able to apply that understanding to see why corona/covid-19 is dangerous not individually but on average and why you have to apply averaging measures to try to contain it.

There are two considerations when determining the cumulative effects of spreading disease. The first is, how easy is the disease to spread from person to person. The second is, how damaging is any individual infection. Eboli, for instance, is often very damaging in individual cases but hard to spread, especially if you take the right precautions. Measles is very, very, ridiculously easy to spread but is not that dangerous to any one individual. Corona/covid-19 seems to be in the middle: somewhat easy to spread, dangerous to a small but substantial population.

Taking a look at the numbers, if you have an large vulnerable population and each infection spreads on average to more than one person (the reproduction number), the infection spreads geometrically. If each infection spreads on average to less than one person, then the infection will die out. When the reproduction number is less than one, how quickly or slowly it dies out will depend on how many people had it at the start and how far below one you can drive the reproduction number. One way to drive the reproduction number down is to immunize the population, either through natural (having had the virus) or artificial (a shot) means. Another is to reduce the number of contacts that each person has on average. Ideally this should be done to people who are infectious by completely removing any contact with them (quarantine). In most diseases there is a lag between the time they become infectious and when it is noticed. As a second-best, less efficient method, if you reduce the number of contacts that everyone has, you should end up reducing the reproduction number for those who are infectious.

As an alternative, you can let the disease spread unchecked. Eventually a large part of the population becomes immune because they had it, and the reproduction number drops below one. Of course then a part of the population becomes immune because they are dead, which may be large or small depending on the disease. Historically the most similar event I know of was the Spanish flu of 1918. The number of people infected was around a half a billion, and the number who died from it was somewhere in the range of seventeen to fifty million. Not everyone who got it died but a lot did. Corona/covid-19 seems to be somewhat similar in both aspects, but I don't think anyone knows for sure whether it is more or less dangerous than, say, Spanish flu (a note for Spanish readers: from what I understand that particular flu acquired the name "Spanish" not because it was somehow particular to Spain but because at the time it started there was wartime censoring on the spread of the disease in non-neutral countries; the reporting on its progress in Spain was not censored, and it acquired its moniker by information being surpressed in other countries).

So if you get corona virus and spread it to one or more other people, will you die? On average, probably not. You may be pretty sick, or you may not even know you had it from what I have heard. Will someone else die? This is the harder question. If everyone else behaves like you and on average spreads it to more than one person, then the answer is yes, it is likely that on average someone else will die from your transmission of the virus. In ASL terms this is like taking a low odds shot that has high ROF.

The net result is that you, individually, should probably not be too concerned about getting corona/covid-19, but especially in the group you are a member of here on gamesquad, you probably know one or more persons who do fall in the category of higher risk. And even they may survive, but, on average, at least some will not. I can think of some players about whom I would be greatly concerned if they did get it.

This is all based on what I have read so far. If I have gotten something (or everything!) wrong, I apologize, but I believe this is a summary of why events are progressing as they are. And also why ROF 3 weapons are so good in ASL, even if any one shot is not likely to produce a result.

JR
 
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Eagle4ty

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SCHOOL is cancelled for me for 4 weeks. MY wife is giving me the choice of EITHER Chicago weekend of March 28 or March Madness next weekend. I am going to talk to Jeff DY as he is planning last I knew of going your way. OTHERWISE I will certainly see you end of July in St Louis
Just consulted with my VA clinic here and with my age, disability and past medical issues they STRONGLY recommended I cancle my attendance in Chicago especially since there's active cases occurring in there and the O'Hare location is utilized often by travelers that may have been exposed to the virus. Quite disappointing prospect as this is my only tournament I normally attend and it may leave Curtis out on a limb. Either way my prospects for an early demise may be enhanced as the wife is certainly PO'ed that I am even considering attendance.
 

Doug Kirk

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Just consulted with my VA clinic here and with my age, disability and past medical issues they STRONGLY recommended I cancle my attendance in Chicago especially since there's active cases occurring in there and the O'Hare location is utilized often by travelers that may have been exposed to the virus. Quite disappointing prospect as this is my only tournament I normally attend and it may leave Curtis out on a limb. Either way my prospects for an early demise may be enhanced as the wife is certainly PO'ed that I am even considering attendance.
This should all blow over by July. Talk Curtis into heading south with you for the St Louis tourney.
 

hongkongwargamer

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The game with the corona/covid-19 virus is a numbers game. Reasonably good ASL players should understand that a two FP attack down two is a better attack than a four FP attack flat. They probably know that a Gun with a final TK# of four against a particular AFV but with a ROF of three is a potent weapon against that AFV. These same players should be able to apply that understanding to see why corona/covid-19 is dangerous not individually but on average and why you have to apply averaging measures to try to contain it.

There are two considerations when determining the cumulative effects of spreading disease. The first is, how easy is the disease to spread from person to person. The second is, how damaging is any individual infection. Eboli, for instance, is often very damaging in individual cases but hard to spread, especially if you take the right precautions. Measles is very, very, ridiculously easy to spread but is not that dangerous to any one individual. Corona/covid-19 seems to be in the middle: somewhat easy to spread, dangerous to a small but substantial population.

Taking a look at the numbers, if you have an large vulnerable population and each infection spreads on average to more than one person (the reproduction number), the infection spreads geometrically. If each infection spreads on average to less than one person, then the infection will die out. When the reproduction number is less than one, how quickly or slowly it dies out will depend on how many people had it at the start and how far below one you can drive the reproduction number. One way to drive the reproduction number down is to immunize the population, either through natural (having had the virus) or artificial (a shot) means. Another is to reduce the number of contacts that each person has on average. Ideally this should be done to people who are infectious by completely removing any contact with them (quarantine). In most diseases there is a lag between the time they become infectious and when it is noticed. As a second-best, less efficient method, if you reduce the number of contacts that everyone has, you should end up reducing the reproduction number for those who are infectious.

As an alternative, you can let the disease spread unchecked. Eventually a large part of the population becomes immune because they had it, and the reproduction number drops below one. Of course then a part of the population becomes immune because they are dead, which may be large or small depending on the disease. Historically the most similar event I know of was the Spanish flu of 1918. The number of people infected was around a half a billion, and the number who died from it was somewhere in the range of seventeen to fifty million. Not everyone who got it died but a lot did. Corona/covid-19 seems to be somewhat similar in both aspects, but I don't think anyone knows for sure whether it is more or less dangerous than, say, Spanish flu (a note for Spanish readers: from what I understand that particular flu acquired the name "Spanish" not because it was somehow particular to Spain but because at the time it started there was wartime censoring on the spread of the disease in non-neutral countries; the reporting on its progress in Spain was not censored, and it acquired its moniker by information being surpressed in other countries).

So if you get corona virus and spread it to one or more other people, will you die? On average, probably not. You may be pretty sick, or you may not even know you had it from what I have heard. Will someone else die? This is the harder question. If everyone else behaves like you and on average spreads it to more than one person, then the answer is yes, it is likely that on average someone else will die from your transmission of the virus. In ASL terms this is like taking a low odds shot that has high ROF.

The net result is that you, individually, should probably not be too concerned about getting corona/covid-19, but especially in the group you are a member of here on gamesquad, you probably know one or more persons who do fall in the category of higher risk. And even they may survive, but, on average, at least some will not. I can think of some players about whom I would be greatly concerned if they did get it.

This is all based on what I have read so far. If I have gotten something (or everything!) wrong, I apologize, but I believe this is a summary of why events are progressing as they are. And also why ROF 3 weapons are so good in ASL, even if any one shot is not likely to produce a result.

JR
Wow .. an infectious disease explained in ASL terms, never thought I will see this. Everything worth knowing is in that ASLRB, EVERYTHING.
 
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hongkongwargamer

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Unfortunately, there is no evidence yet that the virus causing COVID-19 is seasonal, like the flu.
Correct .. that's what we thought as well a few months ago based on our experience with SARS. However as more and more tropical countries get it, this whole idea of "hot weather kills germs" fades away.
 

Markdv5208

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I am still going to CHICAGO and advise that you plan on it with the flexibility of maybe cancelling at the last minute. JMHO

Just consulted with my VA clinic here and with my age, disability and past medical issues they STRONGLY recommended I cancle my attendance in Chicago especially since there's active cases occurring in there and the O'Hare location is utilized often by travelers that may have been exposed to the virus. Quite disappointing prospect as this is my only tournament I normally attend and it may leave Curtis out on a limb. Either way my prospects for an early demise may be enhanced as the wife is certainly PO'ed that I am even considering attendance.
 

Vinnie

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Correct .. that's what we thought as well a few months ago based on our experience with SARS. However as more and more tropical countries get it, this whole idea of "hot weather kills germs" fades away.
I dontnthinkmit is so much "hot weather kills germs" but better weather means people are not so concentrated within buildings.
 

jrv

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I don't think the question of why flu is seasonal is fully understood. There have been a lot of reasons suggested. One thing that is different about flu is that there is no such thing as "The Flu." What we call flu is a large group of related viruses. The problem with flu is that the immune system sees each flu variant as a different infection. For most viruses when you catch and get over it, you are immune to that virus for your lifetime, for all practical purposes. The flu you get this year is not the same flu you got last year, at least as far as your immune system is concerned. That is why you get "The Flu" again and again, because it isn't just one virus. Not only is it not one virus, new variants evolve all the time. In comparison there are only two variants of smallpox. Because there are only two, it was possible to eliminate smallpox using vaccine. I don't think anyone knows if corona/covid-19 will be able to produce a large number of variants. As far as I know to date there is only the one. If it does not create variants and if there are no animal reservoirs then it should be possible to eliminate the virus.

JR
 
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FrankH.

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I want to get back to the "gaming", the game-inspired analysis of this situation. There are statistical odds for just about everything that might happen in life, not that those odds are necessarily fully understood by us or by anyone, or that they are unchanging.

Now in ASL every fair player knows or can calculate the rough odds that a single action of a single unit might go right, go wrong, or be inconclusive. And decide to, or not to, take that action.

But no one can predict how it will end when players of close to equal ability engage in a balanced scenario. What we do tend to remember in hindsight is the clear mistakes and/or the errors. Most often we remember how the dice behaved. And one can easily blame it all or in part on bad luck/bad dice.

Losing, you can pick up your stuff and live to play another day, even the same scenario if you like, over and over again. What are you out other than some psychological bruising, maybe some doubt or qualms about certain quirks in the rules, or some embarrassment?

Not quite so with this - and with so many types of human events or circumstances like this. Bluntly, once you are in the KIA pile that's it. Game over permanently.

I think it's clear that gaming is more fun, less deadly, than war, disease and the like. All I am saying is use your knowledge of intel sources and your knowledge of statistics to make these decisions.
 
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