- Feb 20, 2019
- Reaction score
Per your table the odds for one leader is 0.2912, the odds for two leaders is 0.0624, the odds for three leaders is 0.0083. Based on those three alone the expected number of leaders created per CCPh is 0.2912*1 + 0.0624*2 + 0.0083*3 = 0.2912 + 0.1248 + 0.0249 = 0.4409, which is getting close to the correct answer of 0.444444.... leaders per turn. Since I truncated the probabilities my estimate based on the first three is low even for that group.
Sure but what that gives you is the probability that at least 1 and no more than 3 leaders are created.
It doesn't tell you the most likely (expected) number of leaders that would be created per turn, which is 0