GunnerC vs MikeJ

[GunnerC]

Commentary to follow as the game develops.

We agreed 3 TO's - I like the idea of the extra artillery, and plan to use little Saturn as well.
:nofear:

I have chosen North deployment to try and drive through the Italians and keep his front over-long to manage properly. More strategy to follow as I work out what his game plan is.

 

[GunnerC]

End of Turn 2 !

Oops ... he made a great attack and got further towards the pocket than I would have thought.

His tactic is to hope I used the 'Allow DON front to fight elsewhere' TO, which would have been wasted - fortunately I didn't ! When do the Don reinforcements arrive as I chose that TO (and will use Little Stalin) ?

My air force is in disarray, and I let loose with all my artillery on the pocket to make use of it before it gets overrun (at least those elements on the West). I have some troops coming from the North to pathc up holes in the line, and I will try and rescue as many as I can from his encirclement action - but it doesn't look to be many.

I made some progress against the Italians, even with limited forces attacking - hopefully enough to keep him worried about it up there (though I think he deployed in the North).

Save file as at the end of my turn 2 attached.

 

[CyberRanger]

When do the Don reinforcements arrive as I chose that TO (and will use Little Stalin) ?
.

Look for them around turn 5. look forward to examine the file when I have more time tomorrow.

 

[Heinz57]

Hi GunnerC,

Just looked at the file. Looks like he's taken early 19th PzD TO, there's PzG elements @ (8, 12) which couldn't be there otherwise. That gets Thunderclap out of the picture. 3rd PzD/1st PzA is entrained in Morozovsk, some elements still at their entry point.

I'd recommend digging everything in 3rd Guards Army that is in mobile status, and if possible get something to screen the Army HQ in case he swings that way. Also a good idea to reduce the overstacking along the pocket...but it looks like you are making good on the situation there with probing attacks.

Dang. Back to my drawing board...ha. This isn't what I would have expected, it does look like he has a pretty good shot at putting 5th TA in the bag. But then, wherever 57th PzK was deployed the situation would look rough, so 51st Army and parts of Don Front get the reprieve.

Heinz57

 

[GunnerC]

Here we go - end of turn 3.

Apologies - I checked for advice after I played this turn.

Artillery has started to soften up the edges of the pocket - gained 2-3 hexes, and some of his unites 'evaped' under fire.

As suspected he has completed his encirclement, so I attacked as much as I could with them to lose units and get them back into the replacement pool (they would die under his attack next turn or two anyway, and if they die unsupplied they don't go back to the replacment pool !).

Early turn end caused me to leave a fair bit of artillery not dug in - which is a blow - but it will be interesting to see where he goes from here. He seems to have stopped just outside the '*' line - possibly waiting to see if I played the 'Use Don forces anywhere' TO. If he stays there I'll eliminate the pocket and delay little Saturn for a few turns to keep him guessing ...

 

[Heinz57]

Hey GunnerC!

You make a good point with getting units back into the replacement/reconstitution pool early. Everything in the Soviet OOB will reconstitute.

In the air war, are you seeing him attacking your air bases?

Heinz57

 

[GunnerC]

Yes, on the fist turn he mved a lot of air units and hit all my bases. In both combat turns to date I have lost more planes in about a 3-1 ratio, and in each have had only one air unit not in 're-org'.

He appears to have a number of units on combat support judging by battle results.

 

[laszlo.nemedi]

I thought MikeJ will be lethal, but it is really a disaster.
You can only slow him down...

Some thoughts as I saw your save file:

tactical level:
Always dig in ignore losses, use natural places where the entrenchment level more than 10-20%.
Dig your arty in ignore losses.
If you have small number of unit and cannot make a continous line, make defense net (units with one hole between them, and one unit behind the hole (all dig in ignore losses). It will only slow him down, so move units from other frontline to here.

operational level:
make him worry a bit (I fear he will not): attack heavily on the wings and far wings (that attack on the Italian side is good, but maybe not enough).
Attack: many units 3 side adjustent, heavy artillery fire support, ignore losses, and not against armour, but soft and weak units, don't bother with the number of phases you get.)
Defend heavily on the central part...

PRAY...
I am lucky to avoid MikeJ as Opponent...

 

[laszlo.nemedi]

I read the other comments, maybe only me who worry?
I think 3Gds will be eliminated before full activation... ((


EVERYONE! WESTPOINTER!
I propose everyone see this save file, and build up a possible plan for GunnerC. MikeJ is the strongest in the Axis side, and he is very very analytical so I think he made a lot of advices to the others, and be prepared for attack like this.
GunnerC can you send the PBL file with password to see how MikeJ moves his units? (of course Westpointer should allow it before...)

 

[CyberRanger]

I read the other comments, maybe only me who worry?
I think 3Gds will be eliminated before full activation... ((

I'm not sure it's all that bad. Yes, the 26th Tk Corp and a lot of the 5TA units will be destroyed but hey .... the Soviets situation WILL suck the first few turns. If he hadn't taken out the the units in the north, he'd killed the 51st Army.

A few items I noticed immediately:
1. All of your defenders should be dug in. Why aren't your surrounded units dug in? Did they get retreated there and not have any mp's left to dig in?

2. All should be on ignore losses. The first thing you should do at the beginning of turn 2 is place every unit on ignore losses. (Forgive me if I'm preaching to the choir ... it's always worth repeating.)

3. Don't get concerned about the air force. I think that's about standard. I just got my turn 2 and all but 2 air units are in re-org. It was painful watching them attack during the replay ... when that's not what I wanted ... but that's the game!

4. Turn 4 is next! Most of your units are un-frozen. I see no threat to 3rd Gds Army, especially once 1 Gds Mech Corps is activated on turn 5.

5. He is definetly setting outside Stalingrad being careful not to trip the **** boundary. I'd expect that once he eliminates the pocket that he's surrounded, he'll want to swing west and link up with Stalingrad, if he feels he can.

6. Your job .... work your plan! Look at his situation. Right now, he's done nothing but launch a spoiling attack. He's gained no vp points except for gaining 3 pts on the loss penalty. That will increase but we expect that. If he can eliminate the Soviets that are surrounded. What then? If he turns east, he has three Soviet Gd armies attacking behind him. Not pretty. If he turns west, he will not be able to relieve the Stalingrad pocket. Going north serves no purpose.

7. Here's some of my recommendations:
a) Move a lot of the Don Front artillery on the west side of the pocket where they can support limited attacks against the Germans east of Ostrov. I see you have the 13th Mech Corp moving up. Get them attacking towards Ostrov from the SE with the Don Front units doing ML/LA attacks from the east.
b) Get the 4th Tank Corp and the 3rd Gd's Cav Corp off the west edge of the pocket and have them attack NW towards Bolshe Nabatov (67,24) with the 226 Rifle Div supporting down the road towards Ronin. If he doesn't kill your pocket by the end of his turn 5 (whic he probably will anyway but you have to try) the hunter will become the hunted!
c) Raise hell on the Italians with those three Gd Armies. Don't go running down to battle the 57 Pz Corp with them. Stick to YOUR plan.
d) Raise hell on the Rumanians. With no additional German troops on the south flank, the Soviet 28th and 51st Armies can tear a new a-hole in the southern German lines. Take the rest of the 13th Mech Corp (around Kargata 76,38) and hit those Romanian cav regiments. March the 28th Army due west. He will have to pay attention!

My thoughts for now. Stick to your plan ... get dug in ... and get on ignore losses.

 

[CyberRanger]

...
GunnerC can you send the PBL file with password to see how MikeJ moves his units? (of course Westpointer should allow it before...)

I don't think there is anything wrong with this although I don't know how much that will really show you. If you want that, please let the player know and have him email you the file individually. We don't don't want to clog up folks email or get people confused about why they are receiving a PBL file.

 

[CyberRanger]

...
Attack: many units 3 side adjustent, heavy artillery fire support, ignore losses, and not against armour, but soft and weak units, don't bother with the number of phases you get.)
...

Good advice BUT NOT ignore losses. USE Min Losses ... Limited attacks unless you really want to take the hex! DO worry about the number of phases you get!!!! You want those artillery tubes to fire as many times as possible! In 40 turns ... that will make a huge difference!

If you plan your attacks well, you should be able to get at least two combat rounds. On a unit where you can attack three sides, attack one edge with a small ML/LA during round one. During round 2, attack with a small ML/LA from the other edge. (Don't attack from the middle hex ... you don't gain anything.) By doing this, you will minimize your losses and the 2nd attack will get the flanking benefit. If you get another round attack with another edge unit. Don't worry about how strong the ground attack is ... you want that as weak as possible. The ground attack is only to make the artillery support have it's greatest impact.

 

[CyberRanger]

....

Early turn end caused me to leave a fair bit of artillery not dug in ...

IF you aren't trying to advance, dig the artillery in AS SOON as it's in position. It will still support the attacks. DO NOT direct fire your artillery. It is much better to dig it in (or have it in tactical reserve if you plan to move after you fire).

(I'm not saying that you are direct firing ... just a reminder to everyone. Artillery in indirect support supports at half strength. So if you get it to support just three attacks, you've gained 50% in strength versus direct fire. I've often had artillery support upwards of 8 attacks. That means it provided FOUR times more firepower than in direct fire mode.)

 

[GunnerC]

Thanks guys - a few comments from my side.

The situation is not good - he is going for my supply lines. The 3rd Gds Army is likely to be out of supply at the start of turn 5 (or soon thereafter). The 5th Grds Mech Corps will not be able to help - he is adjacent to their huge stack now and I still cannot move them as they have not been activated yet. Next turn he will throw artillery and attacks on the stack and the losses should be horrendous.

I believe such a stack as an initial deployment is a scenario design issue - what do you think ?

My attacks on the pocket have been small units on min losses limited, supported by direct fire artillery. A select number of attacks each combat round to maximise the impact of the artillery on particular hexes. I will look at digging in the artillery and using them more indiscriminately on attacks - though it will be a change in tactic from the above. In the past I have not often found half power artillery sufficient to 'dig out' units, I try and dig them out of 'F' or 'E' status and then hit them again in the same turn - much more losses that way.

If I get fewer than two combat rounds I consider it a disaster - I normally look for three.

In answer to WestPointer - the surrounded units were not dug in for one reason. Their position was very poor indeed, and they were doomed however hard I dug them in. They were also out of supply from the next turn, hence a proportion of losses on the current turn went back to the replacement pool - on turns after that they would be lost indefinitely. Given the Axis strength around them I took the decision to use them to attack, taking what I could with me and also building up the replacement pool. I suspect had I got my third combat round I would have dug them in - but a hypothetical consideration as the turn ended.


I agree that now is the time to hit the Rumanians in the South, also I can intensify the battle against the Italians in the North as the bulk of the force there are now active. I plan to use Little Saturn this turn and see its effects next turn. I think he soon then has a big decision to make - he will realise my TO's didn't include free use of Don forces - so if he tries to relieve the pocket he opens them up to assist elsewhere. interesting choice for him ...

Once more to the Front comrades ...

 

[Foggy]

Actually - I think you're doing okay - he's going for a knockout kill. He's
going to have real supply problems soon and as your units activate - it's going to be flanking time esp. in the South!

 

[CyberRanger]

I believe such a stack as an initial deployment is a scenario design issue - what do you think ?
...

Yeah, one that really sucks. Playtesting never envisioned something like MikeJ's attack.

Hang in there. I can't really look at the file now ... but I'd recommend moving unit out of the way as much as possible. Consolidate to the nw and ne, regroup, and then hit back.

easy to say, right?!!?

 

[Heinz57]

Deployment is definitely an issue -- South and Central deployments are in far worse positions in this regard...North would be relatively safe...except for 57th North.

Will look at the next file/turn as its posted. How many tactical rounds would you guess that he got in t4?

I agree 3 or more tac-rounds for us is an imperative. Occasionally we might get the rare 1-2 rounder, keep an eye on support levels. If you can get flank attacks from different formations on Int. Support -- attack from one on one round, the other the next -- you will get the "flank shot" bonus.

 

[GunnerC]

Turn 4 update

Sorry - no maps - forgot to make a save file.

3 combat rounds helped somewhat - massive and careful use of the attack planner to make sure of this (slow work!).

Some further progress against the Italians (and Rumanians) in the North, and the attack front has started in the South. Main effort in the North planned for the next few turns as all the troops up there have woken up now.

Counter-attack against Ostrov has weakened the German troops there, with two strong mech units having established a bridgehead across the river (it won't last, but should take his best efforts to get rid of and will force him to commit troops).

Started putting in place an outer defensive line on the North of the pocket, as it may just be he is heading round to decide to attack the pocket from the North (still a couple of weak points there this turn though). I already have a basic outer defensive line on the West of the pocket.

It may well be though he's not trying to break into the pocket at all - susepct he doesn't want to let the Don force troops into the game. As a result I've delayed Little Saturn to keep him guessing what my last TO really is.

3 combat rounds against just about every perimeter hex of the pocket is causing him damage - with some Axis units 'evaping'. For the moment I'm happy having him on the full front rather than an expensive attack to push into the pocket as he has a longer line to man with a diminishing number of units.

Worst problem is the centre - where I think that despite a break-out counter attack my 3rd Guards army will be out of supply next turn.

I'll post a map when I get one.

 

[GunnerC]

Map at start of t5

Guys,

Here is the latest status. I believe the Axis will be in China before very much longer.

He has an almost superhuman ability to achieve exactly what he needs. In this turn he -

- Eliminated my dug in mech units on the bridgehead near Ostrov
- Rolled up the Southern edge of 3rd Guards army, and destroyed a HQ unit I had on the super-river in an attempt to provide mobility (3rd Guards now out of supply as anticipated and effectively pretty much dead)
- Hit the 1st Guards Mech heavily (in their overstacked status) leaving them all with 33% readiness and very limited movement
- Continued his movement around the North of the Pocket
-Removed the potential break-through I had against the Italians in the North by eliminating some of the units I had there.

... and all whilst leaving the majority of his units still well dug-in at the end of the turn.

Losses are now 15-4, which means 20% of my force is dead (if I'm right in thinking it's 75 each out of the 150 VP's), and the 3rd Guards will follow soon.

Happy to receive suggestions before I get back to this later today (Mothers Day over here) , but suspect it's a bit of a dead duck. :dead:

 

[laszlo.nemedi]

I think he will only encircle the Stalingrad pocket won't go inside the *** border (how unhistorical that units only stay in the pocket within the ***)...

He will kill every unit from the center to the north. And he has a chance...

OK, you should destroy every bridge on the super river and guard against the German engineers (better to sit in the destroyed bridge hex and after destroy it. (dig in ignore loss)...

But anyway it will be a hard game...

(Again I saw MikeJ superToawunhumanmaster movements... :dead: