Jazz
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About half way through the book he describes in some detail a pentagon war game pitting a data/analysis heavy Blue team vs a less advanced less well armed Red team led by a proven combat veteran.
For that glacially slow ASL player in your life.....
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About half way through the book he describes in some detail a pentagon war game pitting a data/analysis heavy Blue team vs a less advanced less well armed Red team led by a proven combat veteran.
Actionjick
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Perhaps a brief description for those OMSIP individuals who have no interest in audio books would be helpful.
Jazz
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From the description in the link.....
"In Blink we meet the psychologist who has learned to predict whether a marriage will last, based on a few minutes of observing a couple; the tennis coach who knows when a player will double-fault before the racket even makes contact with the ball; the antiquities experts who recognize a fake at a glance. Here, too, are great failures of "blink": the election of Warren Harding; "New Coke"; and the shooting of Amadou Diallo by police. Blink reveals that great decision makers aren't those who process the most information or spend the most time deliberating, but those who have perfected the art of "thin-slicing", filtering the very few factors that matter from an overwhelming number of variables. "
That's as good as I can or should do. You need to listen to or read the book. Both are available.
"In Blink we meet the psychologist who has learned to predict whether a marriage will last, based on a few minutes of observing a couple; the tennis coach who knows when a player will double-fault before the racket even makes contact with the ball; the antiquities experts who recognize a fake at a glance. Here, too, are great failures of "blink": the election of Warren Harding; "New Coke"; and the shooting of Amadou Diallo by police. Blink reveals that great decision makers aren't those who process the most information or spend the most time deliberating, but those who have perfected the art of "thin-slicing", filtering the very few factors that matter from an overwhelming number of variables. "
That's as good as I can or should do. You need to listen to or read the book. Both are available.
Actionjick
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Thanks! Will have to see if it's available from the library. Nothing on the reading list right now but busy with the spring honey do chores.
Sounds interesting and vaguely Sherlock Holmes like as far as making deductions about people.
Blink also a fantastic episode of Doctor Who. I got three different people hooked on the series after they watched this as their introduction to Doctor Who.
Actionjick
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Book is checked out. I put a reserve on it. Thanks for the tip. Sounds like a good read.
Jazz
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Interesting,....I hadn't thought of that but yeah, very Sherlockian.....
bendizoid
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The best guitar players ‘blink’ when they play. It sounds like muscle memory for the brain. Probably the best poker players use something like this, a feeling combined with thought, instant.
Jazz
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Actually they have measured things like timing of physical responses (sweaty palms, etc...) on a seconds scale with difference millisecond differences being of consequence.
The tennis coach mentioned in the book has been looking for just what the "tell" is in the tennis serves. He still has no clue just what it is that tells him it's going to be a double fault.
Actionjick
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Probably the same feeling you get when you know you are going to roll boxcars on that 10-3's morale check.
Paul S NJ
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About 15 years ago I invited (and paid for) Blink's author, Malcolm Gladwell, to join the executives of our pharma company to discuss strategic options to be considered in our 5 year strategy process. He was impressive and articulated critical industry issues as well as any of the executives. A very fun day.
As per 'Blink', I think good ASL players like Pleva and Bendis have a natural feel for a side's scenario timetable and level of risk tolerance. They push opponents into uncomfortable choices and exploit favorable outcomes while able to recover readily from setbacks. Think of a well led group of ELR 5 658's attacking along an avenue providing decent cover and safe rally areas. Every turn half of these squads can break with little reduction in the attack's momentum. OTOH ELR 1 346's must stick fast in stone buildings. Even minor setbacks are likely to result in elimination or capture.
As per 'Blink', I think good ASL players like Pleva and Bendis have a natural feel for a side's scenario timetable and level of risk tolerance. They push opponents into uncomfortable choices and exploit favorable outcomes while able to recover readily from setbacks. Think of a well led group of ELR 5 658's attacking along an avenue providing decent cover and safe rally areas. Every turn half of these squads can break with little reduction in the attack's momentum. OTOH ELR 1 346's must stick fast in stone buildings. Even minor setbacks are likely to result in elimination or capture.
von Marwitz
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I think that the prerequisite for 'blinking' lies first and foremost in solid experience (and the time previously spent to gain it) and only to a lesser extent in a 'natural feel'. That said, solid experience may make these things appear as a 'natural feel'.
von Marwitz
Jazz
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One of the Blink phenomenon that he mentions is the seemingly immediate and innate situational awareness that the great leaders of military history seem to have.
von Marwitz
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I have not read the book, which seems to be quite interesting.
What I glean here seems to be that drawing the correct conclusions of what to do in a given situation might happen in a blink.
However, you still need/have learned a prior understanding of the capabilities and limitations of the assets at one's hand, that of the enemy, and those outside anyone's control. I.e. if you understand what an infantry company or a platoon of tanks etc. can and cannot do, then some may draw the best way to deploy these tools in a given situation in the optimal way 'in a blink'.
von Marwitz
Jazz
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Seems obvious?
Indeed, some of the very prominent failures/successes of Blink decision making are explained in terms of inexperience/experience of the people (especially cops) making the decisions.
The fella that could predict double faults in tennis had spent decades coaching championship level tennis players. Still, he could not put his finger on just what it was about the serve before the ball even met the racket let him make those calls.
Another example is the antiquities experts determining if a statue reputed t have been dug up millennia after being buried by ancient Greeks. One of these experts just looked at it, and the word that snapped to her mind was "fresh"....from a statue that was supposed to have been buried for millennia. She has no clue why that word came to her, but it did.
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Tuomo
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I like to read the one star reviews for books that seem too amazing to be true. The ones for Blink seem to bear out my suspicions. Get good at something and you can do it quickly. Wowsers?
I don't know How Great Players Do It, but I bet they have a beneficial combination of book smarts and personality traits, then honed their skills with lots of effort and practice.
I don't know How Great Players Do It, but I bet they have a beneficial combination of book smarts and personality traits, then honed their skills with lots of effort and practice.
Actionjick
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I believe you are correct on your assessment of the Great Ones. I would add three other factors: an inherent belief in themselves, determination and the ability to self rally.
As far as being able to do something quickly that you are good at there is no great revelation there. The military has been doing that for centuries in the form of training and drills.
In the thread on learning ASL quickly I mentioned that there are those that are natural gamers. I believe this can be the case and when combined with the factors Tuomo mentioned above you have a truly formidable individual.
Still even those of us who are not among the Great Ones can aspire to play at their level and maybe even occasionally beat them. Determination also works for people who are not blessed with natural abilities.
Jazz
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Of course that is the case. Seems obvious?
But the great ones do it without the endless and detailed information collection and analysis that the non-great ones do....and they get it right more often.
Possibly the the ability to evaluate situations in thin slices is what makes one great? Mayhaps that is the point?
I tend to read the one star reviews as well, as well as counting the number of 5 star reviews, and do not pay much attention to either.
Tuomo
Keeper of the Funk
Sure, but the inference is that one can take a glance at a situation and perceive the whole. Which IMO is BS and gives the perceiver some kind of power that isn't really there.
Think about things you're well-above-average at. Do you have some kind of power? Or are you just experienced and comfortable with whatever gotchas might arise?
And I wanna see statistics on that tennis coach who can predict double-faults. You know, with math and stuff. I want to see how he does observing good players, bad players, men, women, people he's seen for a while and people he's never seen.
Circling around to ASL, of course Great Players are great. They could kick my butt. But I'm not getting all cross-eyed about how they must process information on some 10th dimensional plane that I can't even comprehend.
Being able to filter out the chaff from the target is nothing mystical. It’s just years of experience combined with keen perception and above average intelligence.
When an individual has all three is when the ‘slicing’ seems ‘mystically’ thin.
When an individual has all three is when the ‘slicing’ seems ‘mystically’ thin.
Jazz
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The tennis coach's statistics are quoted in the book, as are the marriage counselor's, and just about every other example he presents.
The inference that one can take a glance at a situation and perceive the whole is not quite right, but close.
The point is that someone who knows what to look for can perceive the pertinent and important core of a situation with an informed glance.
One of the examples he presents is reading a person and their emotional state from a glance at their face. We all do it, except of course people who are autistic, without being particularly aware of what we are doing.
The inference that one can take a glance at a situation and perceive the whole is not quite right, but close.
The point is that someone who knows what to look for can perceive the pertinent and important core of a situation with an informed glance.
One of the examples he presents is reading a person and their emotional state from a glance at their face. We all do it, except of course people who are autistic, without being particularly aware of what we are doing.