CPVA: prefer shooting at first-line squads or at second-line squads?

JR Brackin

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I think that JRV has hit analysis paralysis - the worst part is I am going to witness this game - I expect it will take 10+ hours to complete.
 

jrv

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I think that JRV has hit analysis paralysis - the worst part is I am going to witness this game - I expect it will take 10+ hours to complete.
Actually just the opposite. It is not at first obvious but I think there is a slight benefit to firing on 5-2-7s over 6-2-7s when there are no negative DRM. It's hard to tell if it is a sufficient difference to have a large game effect.

JR
 

xenovin

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I find it advisable to always fire on enemy units in ASL.

Actually just the opposite. It is not at first obvious but I think there is a slight benefit to firing on 5-2-7s over 6-2-7s when there are no negative DRM. It's hard to tell if it is a sufficient difference to have a large game effect.

JR
 

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Actually just the opposite. It is not at first obvious but I think there is a slight benefit to firing on 5-2-7s over 6-2-7s when there are no negative DRM. It's hard to tell if it is a sufficient difference to have a large game effect.

JR
Now determine if it is better to fire at a German 548 or 467. Please show your mathematical work and backup ;)
 

jrv

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Now determine if it is better to fire at a German 548 or 467. Please show your mathematical work and backup ;)
Where there are two (or more) factors that differentiate the units the answer is usually, "it depends." Here the FP, ML and range of the two units differs. Even if you are guaranteed a KIA, if the range matters (e.g. the 4-6-7 can fire on friendly units exiting for victory but the 5-4-8 cannot), then you fire on the target that has the range. If you were aiming for CVP, it wouldn't matter becase a KIA, CR or casualty MC cause the same CVP for either unit. If the two German units had been a (hypothetical) 5-6-7 vs a 4-6-7, the answer would be obvious. A 5-6-7 is more valuable than a 4-6-7: shoot at it.

What is interesting about the Chinese 6-2-7 vs the 5-2-7 is that it at first looks like the answer looks similarly obvious. The ML and range are the same and will remain the same, and the FP is clearly better in one unit. But there is a hidden difference: the 6-2-7 that fails a MC > ELR is replaced with a 3-2-7, but the 5-2-7 that fails a MC > ELR is replaced by a broken 2-2-7. That second factor makes the choice non-obvious and interesting.

JR
 

jrv

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When you have to shoot, shoot! Don't talk...
What a great line for a movie. It makes it all seem so simple. In the real world, if you have the choice between "think first, shoot later" and "shoot first, think later", think first.

JR
 

jrv

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Go with your gut at the time...everything else is just being an egghead...
If your gut is well-informed, yes. But did your gut tell you to try depletable ammo first when you want to increase your chance of a hit? No. You either thought about it, or you learned from someone else that thought about it.

Movies are wonderful, but the actors go with the script. And someone thought about the script.

JR
 

Augie

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Where there are two (or more) factors that differentiate the units the answer is usually, "it depends." Here the FP, ML and range of the two units differs. Even if you are guaranteed a KIA, if the range matters (e.g. the 4-6-7 can fire on friendly units exiting for victory but the 5-4-8 cannot), then you fire on the target that has the range. If you were aiming for CVP, it wouldn't matter becase a KIA, CR or casualty MC cause the same CVP for either unit. If the two German units had been a (hypothetical) 5-6-7 vs a 4-6-7, the answer would be obvious. A 5-6-7 is more valuable than a 4-6-7: shoot at it.

What is interesting about the Chinese 6-2-7 vs the 5-2-7 is that it at first looks like the answer looks similarly obvious. The ML and range are the same and will remain the same, and the FP is clearly better in one unit. But there is a hidden difference: the 6-2-7 that fails a MC > ELR is replaced with a 3-2-7, but the 5-2-7 that fails a MC > ELR is replaced by a broken 2-2-7. That second factor makes the choice non-obvious and interesting.

JR
Thanks for a serious answer to my somewhat tongue-in-cheek statement. Going back to the CPVA 6-2-7 vs 5-2-7 decision as targets, other aspects to consider is their short range, assault fire, and unique CPVA traits. Some key CPVA traits for this discussion are that (most) CPVA have to area fire at non-ADJACENT targets for Prep/Opp Fire, and they (usually) H-to-H CC with -1 DRM in CC (and get a -1 Ambush drm). Taking an example of two non-ADJACENT to each other, Good Order squads (one a 6-2-7, the other a 5-2-7), that are neither leader directed nor a Recon unit, and in the exact same terrain, there is some other situational data to be considered. In the info below, I will use the IFT as examples (although the final conclusions do not change IMHO if using the IIFT).
* At 5+ hexes, neither can return fire.
Conclusion: JR's analysis holds. I would personally prefer the 5-2-7 target since exceeding ELR means it is a broken HS that is likely out of action for the rest of the game. Not part of the example, but if able to break up a 3+ hex IPM move (and force it to stop even with a pin), picking a middle IPM unit or two may be a better choice.
* At 3-4 hexes: Squad/Striped Squad/>ELR = Prep~Advancing~Defensive Fire IFT column:
** 6-2-7/4-2-7/3-2-7 = 1/1/0 ~ 1/1/0 ~ 2/2/1
** 5-2-7/3-2-7/broken 2-2-7 = 1/0/0 ~ 1/0/0 ~ 2/1/0
Conclusion: Both the 6-2-7 and 5-2-7 firepower are equal at 3-4 hexes. However the 5-2-7 with its striped 3-2-7's FP drops compared to a full squad (unlike the 6-2-7 Step-Reduction). Choose the 5-2-7 as a target if you are only looking at FP.
* At 2 hexes: Squad/Striped Squad/>ELR = Prep~Advancing~Defensive Fire IFT column:
** 6-2-7/4-2-7/3-2-7 = 2/2/1 ~ 4/2/2 ~ 6/4/2
** 5-2-7/3-2-7/broken 2-2-7 = 2/1/0 ~ 4/2/0 ~ 4/2/0
Conclusion: Both the 6-2-7 and 5-2-7 firepower are equal (except in Defensive Fire) at 2 hexes. However the 5-2-7 with its Striped Squad/> ELR is almost all lower than the 6-2-7 Step Reductions. Choose the 5-2-7 if you are only looking at FP.
* At ADJACENT: Squad/Striped Squad/>ELR = Prep~Advancing~Defensive Fire IFT column:
** 6-2-7/4-2-7/3-2-7 = 12/8/6 ~ 6/4/4 ~ 12/8/6
** 5-2-7/3-2-7/broken 2-2-7 = 8/6/0 ~ 6/4/0 ~ 8/6/0
Conclusion: This is a tougher call, with the most noticeable drop being a 5-2-7 >ELR break. The tough call is in your theoretical Prep Fire phase against one of your two targets, and if you achieve one >ELR break, do you want a single 12 FP DFPh return shot or do you want both a 6 FP and a 8 FP DFPh return shot. If going purely by the biggest FP numbers drop, then choose the 5-2-7.

*** However, the UN player needs to consider the CPVA's strong advantage in CC/Melee. The CPVA numbers above show that they need to get close, and their Assault Fire gives them additional FP incentive to do just that. The smart CPVA player will be all about jumping into Close Combat and not trading shots with the UN. So taking into consideration that the 6-2-7 & 5-2-7 will likely want to jump into CC for deadly H-to-H, the following info assumes both CPVA units plan to advance into a defending UN squad location. The UN squads FP strengths can be 7,6, 5, 4, and in rare occasions, 3.

* CC H-to-H: Two CPVA units vs UN Squad FP = CPVA CC odds = CPVA DR needed to KIA (doesn't include -1 Ambush DRM):
** 6-2-7+5-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 3-2/3-2/2-1/2-1/3-1 = 8/8/9/9/10
--- One Squad Striped ---
** 6-2-7+3-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-1/3-2/3-2/2-1/3-1 = 7/8/8/9/10
** 4-2-7+5-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-1/3-2/3-2/2-1/3-1 = 7/8/8/9/10
--- One Squad > ELR breaks ---
** 6-2-7+none vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-2/1-1/1-1/3-2/2-1 = 6/7/7/8/9
** 3-2-7+5-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-1/1-1/3-2/2-1/2-1 = 7/7/8/9/9
Conclusion: Unless you are a 6-6-8, a 6-6-7, a 6-6-6, or a 3-3-6, it is slightly better to target the ADJACENT 5-2-7 in hopes of a >ELR break. In all other cases, it does not matter for Close Combat.

*** One final look is if only a single CPVA unit will jump into Close Combat. This assumes that the CPVA player can only afford one unit in CC (due to a Pin, or because there are other pressing issues to take care of).

* CC H-to-H: One CPVA unit vs UN Squad FP = CPVA CC odds = CPVA DR needed to KIA (doesn't include -1 Ambush DRM):
** 6-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-2/1-1/1-1/3-2/2-1 = 6/7/7/8/9
** 5-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-2/1-2/1-1/1-1/3-2 = 6/6/7/7/8
** 4-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-2/1-2/1-2/1-1/1-1 = 6/6/6/7/7
** 3-2-7 vs. 7/6/5/4/3 = 1-4/1-2/1-2/1-1/1-1 = 5/6/6/7/7
Conclusion: If only one CPVA unit will be jumping into CC (likely his best surviving unit), the UN would rather have it be a 5-2-7 instead of 6-2-7. In this case, you want to be shooting at the 6-2-7 if he is ADJACENT.

Final Conclusion: So based on the above info, I would lean towards shooting 5-2-7s until they are ADJACENT. Then for all the UN unit types (including the 558/557/546/536 for their better UN CC odds vs a 5-2-7) should switch targets to the 6-2-7. US Marines 7-6-8 would be the possible exception, where an >ELR break of a 5-2-7 will be to their benefit.
 
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FourDeuceMF

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Movies are wonderful, but the actors go with the script. And someone thought about the script.
Yet ironically, Eli Wallach ad-libbed that line! (many 'iconic' lines in 'iconic' movies turn out to be so...)

And FWIW, I'm rather comfortable in ASL with 'going with my gut'...and I am well-informed that said gut has, alas, gotten larger over the years...(experience?) :p
 
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Gordon

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If your gut is well-informed, yes. But did your gut tell you to try depletable ammo first when you want to increase your chance of a hit? No. You either thought about it, or you learned from someone else that thought about it.

Movies are wonderful, but the actors go with the script. And someone thought about the script.

JR
What depletable ammo does his revolver have?
;)
 

Justiciar

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I find it advisable to always fire on enemy units in ASL.
I will play you in any SP scenario.... you always have the attacker in all cases...you will always abide by your statement ...I will give you the attacker balance...if you win 30% of the scenarios...you are an ASL God...or have loaded dice....
 
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xenovin

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Not a fan of the AFPh I see. My dice aren’t loaded but the ones that go from 1-3 on one side and 3-1 on the other seem to work pretty well in ASL lol


I will play you in any SP scenario.... you always have the attacker in all cases...you will always abide by your statement ...I will give you the attacker balance...if you win 30% of the scenarios...you are an ASL God...or have loaded dice....
 
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