CPVA: prefer shooting at first-line squads or at second-line squads?

jrv

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In Centurions Reverse [216] the CPVA have a mix of 6-2-7s and 5-2-7s. By SSR the 6-2-7s are Assault Engineers. Per the standard rules both 6-2-7s and 5-2-7s step reduce to their striped version when they fail a combat MC by ≤ their ELR, and their striped versions step reduce to an unbroken halfsquad on a similar result. When a 6-2-7 or striped 6-2-7 fails a combat MC the > its ELR, it is replaced with a stripped 5-2-7 or a 1-2-7 as appropriate. When a 5-2-7 or striped 5-2-7 fails its MC by > its ELR, it is replaced (in both cases) by a broken 1-2-7. So the question is, all other things being equal should the BCFK favor shooting at 6-2-7s or 5-2-7s? And from the other side of the board, should the CVPA player lead with his 5-2-7s or his 6-2-7s? I believe we will be playing the IIFT, if that matters in your answer.

Also in scenarios where the 6-2-7s have no special abilities like being Assault Engineers, is the answer different? How about at night, where it's more difficult to come back from broken?

JR
 
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jrv

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I'm seriously hoping the CPVA have not built up an immunity to iocane powder. That's my backup plan. Although according to this government report, I may need a backup plan for my backup plan.

JR
 

boylermaker

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Seems trivial.

Value of firing at a 627 is (V(627) - V(s627))p(stripe) + (V(627) - V(s527))p(ELR).
Value of firing at a 527 is (V(527) - V(s527))p(stripe) + (V(527) - V(b127))p(ELR).
Where V(i) is the value of counter i to your opponent.

So fire at a 627 whenever the former is great than the latter.
 

jrv

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Don't fight a land war in Asia
Korea is more on the fringe of Asia than smack dab in the middle. And it's more a police action. A police action with tanks, air strikes, strategic bombing and battleships. That won't ever end.

JR
 

Ganjulama

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Seems trivial.

Value of firing at a 627 is (V(627) - V(s627))p(stripe) + (V(627) - V(s527))p(ELR).
Value of firing at a 527 is (V(527) - V(s527))p(stripe) + (V(527) - V(b127))p(ELR).
Where V(i) is the value of counter i to your opponent.

So fire at a 627 whenever the former is great than the latter.
Math is hard.
 

jrv

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Seems trivial.

Value of firing at a 627 is (V(627) - V(s627))p(stripe) + (V(627) - V(s527))p(ELR).
Value of firing at a 527 is (V(527) - V(s527))p(stripe) + (V(527) - V(b127))p(ELR).
Where V(i) is the value of counter i to your opponent.

So fire at a 627 whenever the former is great than the latter.
Yes. However it's the V() function that's interesting. Is converting a 6-2-7 to a 5-2-7 more or less valuable than converting a 5-2-7 to a broken 1-2-7? They both have the same morale and usually the same ELR, so the odds are the same.

JR
 

JRKrejsa

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I have noticed this as well:

Not sure it has made any difference playing against the ChiComs.
BUT

I definitely lead with the 5-2-7s or the 3-3-7s, (date dependent) , as they can soak up firepower. And leave my better units for the endgame. When playing as the CPVA.
 

JR Brackin

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Korea is more on the fringe of Asia than smack dab in the middle. And it's more a police action. A police action with tanks, air strikes, strategic bombing and battleships. That won't ever end.

JR
It is still in Asia and you are going to play on the land.
 

jrv

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It is still in Asia and you are going to play on the land.
I thought the Brackin Basement Bash this year was on your yacht riding at anchor on the Delaware. Do I have that wrong?

JR
 
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JR Brackin

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Only if the humidity does not decrease - however next weekend does appear to be reasonable.
 

jrv

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To continue on with this conversation with myself, if the result was going to be a KIA, then firing at 6-2-7s would clearly be better than firing at 5-2-7s. Perhaps the right choice is situational. When the odds of a KIA are higher (e.g. high negative DRM), then the 6-2-7s should be targeted in preference to 5-2-7s, and when the odds of a KIA are lower (zero or positive DRM), the 5-2-7 should be attacked in preference to the 6-2-7. Again assuming all other situational factors to be equal. If a 6-2-7 is lunging at you with a DC, then doctrine or no, shoot at the 6-2-7.

JR
 
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Gordon

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I thought the Brackin Basement Bash this year was on your yacht riding at anchor on the Delaware. Do I have that wrong?

JR
Yachts don't have "basements".;)
 

Tuomo

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To continue on with this conversation with myself, if the result was going to be a KIA, then firing at 6-2-7s would clearly be better than firing at 5-2-7s. Perhaps the right choice is situational. When the odds of a KIA are higher (e.g. high negative DRM), then the 6-2-7s should be targeted in preference to 5-2-7s, and when the odds of a KIA are lower (zero or positive DRM), the 5-2-7 should be attacked in preference to the 6-2-7. Again assuming all other situational factors to be equal. If a 6-2-7 is lunging at you with a DC, then doctrine or no, shoot at the 6-2-7.
<Insert scene from Monty Python where Lancelot bursts into the room where Prince Herbert is being held. As he kills one guard, the other runs down his mental flowchart of what to do, which unfortunately does not cover the current situation>
 

jrv

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The value function is the tricky bit. As a proxy, I will use FP lost in the result. If a 6-2-7 stripes without ELR, it becomes a 4-2-7 and loses two FP, and if it stripes with ELR, it becomes a second-line 3-2-7 and loses three FP. If a 5-2-7 stripes without ELR it loses two FP (becomes a 3-2-7), but if it ELRs it loses five FP (becomes a broken 2-2-7). I make some simplifying assumptions: ELR fixed at three (for the scenario I will be playing), no cowering on the attack, and a K/# or a casualty MC is equivalent to a KIA, i.e. full FP lost. I created a proof-of-concept spreadsheet. For an eight FP attack with a +0 IFT DRM, the attack against the 6-2-7 causes a 1.5 FP loss on average, while against the 5-2-7 it causes a 1.65 FP loss. If the attack DRM is +1, the expected losses are 1.15 & 1 FP respectively. If the attack DRM is -2, the expected losses are 2.8 & 2.78 FP.

Based on this sample result it looks as though firing at 5-2-7s is slightly better than firing at 6-2-7s. The difference is larger when the attack DRM is zero or positive. At a -2 attack DRM the difference is very small. As this is only one result from many possible it can only be called "suggestive." I have not looked at other FP attacks, other ELRs, initial intervention CPVA, cowering, other attack DRM, or fully calculating the effects of K/# and casualty MC results. This also assumes that the value is the same as the FP lost from the target, which may not be true, and it takes a short-term view that a broken halfsquad is fully-lost FP. In the long-term the broken halfsquad will likely rally. The "value" calculation also ignores the loss of the AE abilities in the scenario I am playing.

As a final point, in general the lower the CPVA ELR, the more value will be gained by shooting at 5-2-7s.

JR
 
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