AFV Combat analysis [in spanglish]

Sparafucil3

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This comment is about the need of a CH variant..
ITT has a fantastic CH rule with a CH probability greater for good to hit numbers. Ie, if easyer to hit easyer to get a CH. Unfortunately, this same axioma is not valid for VTT or ATT, and real consequence in game results is less favourable hits get proportionally higher number of CHs than normal shot, because CH is based on just rolling to HIT and not on the options to get a HIT in each DR, as it´s ruled for ITT.
I think this is a consequence of the targets you're shooting at. With Infantry, the "closer" you get the round to the target in a 40m hex, the better chance you have to do real damage. It's not like they are wrapped in 5cm of rolled, homogeneous, and well sloped steel. With tanks, you need to ACTUALLY hit the target to even have a chance (i.e., getting the round "closer" to the tank doesn't make it better). With an AFV, you actually have to hit a weak point in the armor (a vision slit, a divot from a previous non-penetrating hit, a shot trap, or something like that) to score a CH. It's not enough to just hit the target. In this case, the chance for a CH is really all about luck of where the shell actually hits. Against some tanks (early Panthers for instance), I could see a CH on a 3 or larger number to account for the flaws in the armor layout (the early panther had a rounded lower mantlet which deflected shots into the weaker hull-top armor, frequently killing the driver and radio operator). I could see an SSR which gives one side a super Gunner who is very experienced in aiming and allowing them a CH on a 3 to account for a particularly skilled tanker. JMO. YMMV. -- jim
 

von Marwitz

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Ditto, seems to make much more sense than the 'shot never really happened' BS.
I think that the both approaches have their merits.

On one hand, yes, you get your guaranteed Special Ammo shot. You have more control. But so does your opponent - he 'magically' knows whether you have Special Ammo or not in all cases, which is certainly a drawback.

On the other hand, not having control over parts of the game is a good thing. The uncertainity of getting Special Ammo or not is something both players have to deal with. I think I do prefer the current state of the rules over the Pleva variant.

von Marwitz
 

Yuri0352

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I think that the both approaches have their merits.

On one hand, yes, you get your guaranteed Special Ammo shot. You have more control. But so does your opponent - he 'magically' knows whether you have Special Ammo or not in all cases, which is certainly a drawback.

On the other hand, not having control over parts of the game is a good thing. The uncertainity of getting Special Ammo or not is something both players have to deal with. I think I do prefer the current state of the rules over the Pleva variant.

von Marwitz
My issue is with 'the uncertainty of getting Special Ammo or not'. One would think that a tank/gun commander would be aware of whether or not his vehicle/ordnance even has certain types of ammo in his load out prior to the fight, and certainly when he orders that type of round to be loaded in to the breech. Perhaps in some cases it could be addressed by designers with an SSR. Removing total control from the player is certainly an aspect of ASL which I find appealing, however in the specific case of Special Ammo availability at the time of the first shot, I don't see the merit in the approach which exists at present.

As with all ASL rules, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for a change which appeals to me, nor am I going to lose much if any sleep over the issue.
 

Eagle4ty

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The real kicker is when a gun comes out of HIP to fire a special ammo type and finds it shot never happened in the 1st place. I'm aware that one could possibly make the TH DR prior to revealing the HIP gun but habits are hard to break and I've seldom, if ever, seen this practiced during a game. I suppose one could do a pre-game availability for special ammo DR to determine which assets would have the special ammo for their 1st shot but of course his may entail a bit more off-board record keeping. I'm not a big fan of all assets automatically having special ammo but neither am I too fond of revealing a HIP gun just to find out it never had that ammo in the 1st place.
 

von Marwitz

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... but neither am I too fond of revealing a HIP gun just to find out it never had that ammo in the 1st place.
Hm, IMHO this is a non-problem. As you note yourself it is possible to make the TH DR prior to revealing the Gun. I never handled it differently. I would announce something like: "My HIP gun is attempting an APCR shot on this tank of yours." If there's no APCR, then the position of the HIP gun is not revealed at all (Bonus question, though: Would it if it rolled boxcars? No APCR, no shot taken, but gun malfed...). The opponent would merely know that the HIP Gun is (likely) in LOS somewhere. Given the circumstances, he might make good or bad guesses about the Gun's position.

I have even heard about the following ruse:

With some foreboding, you drive your tank towards that dark and menacing patch of woods. The gunner has been mumbling something about a bad dream last night and was very reluctant, not to say fearful to enter the tank this morning. Into the heavy silence, you hear the reverberant voice of your opponent announce: "I will fire at you with my ATG using APCR..." The last word echoes in your mind as your panic rises.

With dark laughter, your opponent shakes his dice and rolls - above 4... Phew, no APCR!
You might survive a frontal hit with normal AP with a bit of luck, but if you continue on and receive a side hit, you are toast. All the while your Gunner is cursing and repeating: "TOLD you so! Didn't I?" At least, you have found out that this route is unsafe so you turn left and scurry behind some building out of LOS to take the longer detour. It will cost you an extra turn, but at least you will remain alive.

So you think...
As you pull around the other way, even going CE - feeling safe - to get that road bonus, the last what you see is a gunflash from your left flank. Instants later everything goes black...

But the only enemy ATG that attempted an APCR shot on you can impossibly see this spot where is now to be a burning wreck of your precious tank as you point out to your opponent.

With a sauronic smile he says: "I must have overlooked the obvious at first when estimating LOS. [Chuckle] To be honest, I was hoping for not having APCR and retaining HIP, that way making you believe my ATG would be situated in the area of those dark menacing woods. My intention was to scare you away from there, to take the other path. Which you obligingly did and just drove into the crosshairs of my real gun position. I paid for this ruse by consuming my Special Ammo. You paid for it with your tank.

von Marwitz
 

Robin Reeve

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Pre-rolling depletion before the game starts and considering the TH DR during play as indicating the availability of depletable ammo for the next shot has the following advantages:
  • the TH DR doesn't need to be low to fire depletable ammo (i.e. you disconnect depletion from the TH)
  • the firer knows when he must pull out of a dangerous situation, when only special ammo would save it facing a serious threat
The drawbacks or possible problems are:
  • if the pregame DR is a 12 (or equates the B#), do you start with a maf'd gun?
  • your opponent knows in advance if you will be able to use the depletable ammo or not
  • side recording is a nuisance
Perhaps would one totally separate the TH DR from the Depletion one?
That is, after having fired special ammo, make a secret DR to see if you still have some.
The pregame depletion DRs would also be secret.
And no Secret depletion DR corresponding to the B# of the vehicle would be considered a malfunction.

Of course, secret DRs imply confidence between players.
But I haven't seen anyone cheat at ASL (rather, I haven't ever been aware of it... and I actually don't take a lot of pain to try to spot any cheating).
 

Yuri0352

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I suppose one could do a pre-game availability for special ammo DR to determine which assets would have the special ammo for their 1st shot but of course his may entail a bit more off-board record keeping.
This sounds like a workable solution. The record keeping could be extensive if playing Flying Turrets, although as it stands, I'm already keeping side records of vehicles/ordnance which have depleted their Special Ammo.
 

Yuri0352

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If there's no APCR, then the position of the HIP gun is not revealed at all (Bonus question, though: Would it if it rolled boxcars? No APCR, no shot taken, but gun malfed...). The opponent would merely know that the HIP Gun is (likely) in LOS somewhere. Given the circumstances, he might make good or bad guesses about the Gun's position.
I hadn't considered this possibility.
Perhaps the post-malf loss of HIP could represent the loud, profanity-laced tirade of the gun crew?
 

Sparafucil3

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If there's no APCR, then the position of the HIP gun is not revealed at all (Bonus question, though: Would it if it rolled boxcars? No APCR, no shot taken, but gun malfed...).
The Gun is revealed.
ASLRB C8.9 said:
... If that Original To Hit DR is > the Depletion Number, the firer had no such ammunition and is considered not to have fired yet for any purpose unless Gun Malfunction or Low Ammo (D3.71) occurs. ..."
If you malfunction the Gun or Low Ammo the Gun, then the shot did occur. Note the occurrence of "unless". -- jim
 
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MichalS

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Hello Miguel,

I think your ideas are sound, however it is somewhat difficult for me to imagine decoupling ROF, ammo availability check, hit location etc. from TH being put into practice procedurally. (The hit location distribution, which was not discussed at length in your analysis, is quite significantly affected by the final TH chances as well. As an example, with a final TH on 3 or less a turret hit occurs on 67% of all hits, while on a final TH of 8 or less on 46% of all hits.) Do I understand the following implications of what you are saying correctly?

Current version:
  1. Roll DR (2 dice) to establish TH, CH, hit location, ROF, ammo availability, SAN, gun malfunction
  2. If TH successful, roll DR (2 dice) to establish TK
  3. If applicable, roll DR (2 dice) for CS
In total, you roll 2 to 6 dice (3xDR) to execute one action.

Your proposed version:
  1. Roll DR (2 dice) to establish TH + 3rd ROF die
  2. Roll DR (2 dice) to establish CH (only when TH successful?)
  3. If applicable, roll DR (2 dice) to check for ammo availability
  4. If TH successful, roll DR (2 dice) to establish TK
  5. If applicable, roll DR (2 dice) for CS
In total, you roll 5 to 11 dice (5xDR, one of which enlarged to 3 dice) to execute one action (and you still have not decoupled hit location or gun malfunction from the TH roll).

This means not only an increase in complexity in executing a single to hit attempt, but results in implications on play length. I have no reliable statistic apart of a couple of games (I guess VASL could be used to generate a precise statistic), but during one tournament-sized scenario one player rolls about 200 to 300 DRs (including e.g. Wind Change, but excluding RS or Sniper location). Assuming that this number includes an average of 3.5 AFVs and each AFV makes 5 shots per game on average, you just added 35 DRs that need to be interpreted (and not counting the ROF die!), an increase of up to one sixth in total rolls per player.

Sidenote: As opposed to practicability concerns, from the statistical point of view increasing the overall amount of die rolls actually limits the impact of luck/randomness on the outcome. However, (a) this is valid only for more die rolls of the same type and not necessarily by introducing new roll types, and (b) the effect is much less pronounced if the success chances do not cluster in the same range of values (such as between 6 and 8) for all roll types. As an example of the latter, a 3 is a bad result when needing an ATT CH, irrelevant result for Wind Change, a very good result when rolling TH, and a meh result when rolling TK and you do not want to see the target burn. This implies that die roll mean or distribution are much less relevant than the actual conditions in which the roll is undertaken. If I had 100 DR results with an average of 8.00 that I can freely distribute across any die rolls that I should be making, I would be most probably more successful that if I would be making those rolls and were quite lucky (say, an average of 6.00).

How do you envisage your proposal procedure-wise?

Best,
Michal
 

mgmasl

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Hi Michal

Thanks for your analysis..

In my opinión the amount of Rolls are not so increased.

ROF. ROF it´s represent no added DR but a 2rd die (ROF die) when rolling to hit.

AMMO Avaibility. -Not counting Smoke- The amount of DR including any Special Ammo availability are not so much in the game, and a high porcentage of them are "tricky" DRs looking for a second to Hit attemp when the number to be rolled is equal. Suppose a APCR #4 in a scenario where APCR is needed to Kill some enemy AFV. I´m sure the player will save this roll until it gets a higher probability of HIT the target or if forced to do it because situation is desesperate.. I think because my experience because I used to play this way -bad reading of rules- that Special Ammo attemps will be a lot less than in no-SPvariant-ASL. Additionally, actually if the Special Ammo DR is ne, the player roll again, and ammo is being expended as game is running. I mean no unit will try many Special Ammo shots in any game, except for high numbers. Anyway, I commented this variant -it´s really variant from Steve Pleva-, because the importance in AFV combat; I mean SMOKE may be used as usual. BTW, I know Pleva is one of the master players of this game, and the fact he has studied a variant for this is meaning it´s probabily an interesting issue to resolve.

CH DR. This DR is the only real DR added to the normal shot, and because it´s depending on HITs, increment the to hit procedure -actually one added To Kill DR- with a new DR. A way to reduce is rolling to Kill again using the third ROF die, adding to the (colored or white) of the same to Kill DR to check for CH. ie Player doens´t know if a CH until the to Kill DR is resolved and no more DRs added. Anyway, actual ITT CHs need a third dr to be resolved, and additional Random Rolls.. I would add this third die to any to-Kill/IFT-effect DR needing a CH check -including actual ones for ITT CH results. If using the To Kill DR is necessary analyze the number to roll to get a real adv if rolling CH. My thoughts are rolling 5,5 or 6,6 (again 2 in 18) using the colored die and the third die. It allows a to Kill range for resolving CH from 6 (1 plus 5) to 12 (6 plus 6) and no To CH option if Rolling 5 or less. I suppose a 5 or less will usually do something. There is possible deciding before the roll wich pair of numbers will decide the CH, if thinking a diff are needed. Probability will be always the same (2 in 18). Other option is using the 20-side dr many players use to record vehicles expended MFs..

So, by adding a single dr to normal to Hits or To Kill DRs (ROF and CH determination), only DR addition is the special ammo one.. and considering what is written above IMO is not so important as you mean in your post.

Of course, open to any comment to resolve what I see a big problem in AFV combat in ASL.

Thanks Michal.
 
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