A25.33 American OBA Draw Pile for Scarce Ammunition

[Actionjick]

View attachment 14668

Now, that's swell...

von Marwitz

A refined lady who definitely adores Champipple.

 

[Actionjick]

For really fancy-shmanchy occasions we go with champipple, a mix of 7-UP and Ripple.

Ripple, OMG, takes me back. More of a Boone's Farm Strawberry Hill guy in my early days of cavorting with Captain Bacchus. Nasty hangovers. ?

 

[T34]

The OBA draw pile is a bit more complex than a two-die bell curve. It involves a change in probabilities after each instance which is a bit more obtuse to most ASL players, hence the adoption of the "Pleva Rule" which distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and cheats nationalities with small draw piles. This is mathematical. So allowing scenario designers to dabble in creative OBA draw piles is probably not a good idea.

 

[BattleSchool]

The OBA draw pile is a bit more complex than a two-die bell curve.

True. Dice have no memory. The same DR can occur successively. But then the same is also true for a NOBA Draw Pile. Because no chits are permanently removed, the number and proportion of black and red chits remain constant.

The OBA draw pile... involves a change in probabilities after each instance which is a bit more obtuse to most ASL players, hence the adoption of the "Pleva Rule" which distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and cheats nationalities with small draw piles. This is mathematical.

Please elaborate.

 

[Robin Reeve]

Please elaborate.

Each time you draw a chit, the proportion of black to red chits changes.
E.g. : 10B/3R and you draw 1B ; you now have 9B/3R you draw 1R ; you now have 9B/2R...
With dice, the probabilities remain the same each time you roll.
E.g. : you roll two dice, each one has 1-6 possible results with a range of 36 possible results ; you roll the dice again, and you have the same range of possibilities.

 

[Actionjick]

It's been some time, but last time I have been there, the beverage you likely allude to came in aluminum cans, tasted like yellow water, lacked almost any alcohol and was labelled Bud light. Which the dude below would certainly not have found funny.

View attachment 14663

But coming from Germany, I might be a bit spoiled with regard to beer.

von Marwitz

The wife drinks real beer, Heineken, Corona, Stella Artois and St.Pauli Girl when we can find it. Her opinion of light beers matches yours.

 

[BattleSchool]

Each time you draw a chit, the proportion of black to red chits changes.
E.g. : 10B/3R and you draw 1B ; you now have 9B/3R you draw 1R ; you now have 9B/2R...
With dice, the probabilities remain the same each time you roll.
E.g. : you roll two dice, each one has 1-6 possible results with a range of 36 possible results ; you roll the dice again, and you have the same range of possibilities.

Waiting on Herr Hundsdorfer's mathematical explanation as to why a) "the 'Pleva Rule' distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and b) cheats nationalities with small draw piles."

 

[bendizoid]

The OBA draw pile is a bit more complex than a two-die bell curve. It involves a change in probabilities after each instance which is a bit more obtuse to most ASL players, hence the adoption of the "Pleva Rule" which distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and cheats nationalities with small draw piles. This is mathematical. So allowing scenario designers to dabble in creative OBA draw piles is probably not a good idea.

The Spilkster recently had a mathematician friend make tables for expected fire missions for all the OBA draw piles and all the ‘Pleva’ OBA draw piles.

 

[BattleSchool]

The Spilkster recently had a mathematician friend make tables for expected fire missions for all the OBA draw piles and all the ‘Pleva’ OBA draw piles.

Cool beans. Rich mentioned that on an episode of the 2HS last year. Didn't know he had completed them. Any idea if they can be downloaded from anywhere?

 

[Actionjick]

In Iraq we always relied upon the Tennessee guys to get "shampoo" sent from home (alcohol purchase not permitted while deployed). I suppose now they get "hand sanitizer" in their care packages.

Glad you all got to wash your hair. Personal hygiene is very important!??

 

[Actionjick]

True. Dice have no memory. The same DR can occur successively. But then the same is also true for a NOBA Draw Pile. Because no chits are permanently removed, the number and proportion of black and red chits remain constant.



Please elaborate.

Can someone explain the rationale for NOBA decreased accuracy due to heavy surf? I would think the ships providing NOBA would be at least 1000 yards from the surf line. Should it be heavy seas? Thanks. Captain Bacchus is also curious.

 

[Actionjick]

Can someone explain the rationale for NOBA decreased accuracy due to heavy surf? I would think the ships providing NOBA would be at least 1000 yards from the surf line. Should it be heavy seas? Thanks. Captain Bacchus is also curious.

Checking the Google one reference was that the NOBA gun line could be as close as one mile, beyond the effects of the surf IMHO. Another interesting fact was a study that found a 32% accuracy rate against a battleship sized target at 9 miles from the main guns.


Of course with a 2000 lb. HE shell 32% accuracy is probably sufficient.

Captain Bacchus and I love that kind of stuff. ?

Our gunners on the destroyer were not very good. Add to that was that we had no anti submarine capability. Sigh

 

[Robin Reeve]

Can someone explain the rationale for NOBA decreased accuracy due to heavy surf?Captain Bacchus is also curious.

Are you kidding?
You should ask the designer, rather than post that question here, where you will have at best educated guesses and at worst totally speculative ventures.

 

[Actionjick]

Are you kidding?
You should ask the designer, rather than post that question here, where you will have at best educated guesses and at worst totally speculative ventures.

Well you never know who may have some insight into such things.?

Educated guesses and speculation can be so entertaining, don't you agree????

 

[Actionjick]

Can someone explain the rationale for NOBA decreased accuracy due to heavy surf? I would think the ships providing NOBA would be at least 1000 yards from the surf line. Should it be heavy seas? Thanks. Captain Bacchus is also curious.

Thinking about it Captain Bacchus and I believe any modifier should also take into account the source of the NOBA. A 5 inch gun on a battleship has a much more stable platform than the same gun on a destroyer and presumably a more sophisticated Fire Control system.

 

[The Purist]

Plenty ammo : 10B/3R
Normal ammo : 9B/3R
Scarce ammo : 9B/4R

What is the problem ?
Apply the rules normally and all will be well.

This. I have never had an issue with US artillery in my decades of game play.

The use of "not-so-common-common-sense" needs to be stressed. Reinforced. Force fed, if necessary. ?

 

[Actionjick]

This. I have never had an issue with UIS artillery in my decades of game play.

The use of "not-so-common-common-sense" needs to be stressed. Reinforced. Force fed, if necessary. ?

Lol, I've got a tube you can borrow. ?

Btw should be US. Sorry. I notice such things. I suck at punctuation though.

 

[Steven Pleva]

Waiting on Herr Hundsdorfer's mathematical explanation as to why a) "the 'Pleva Rule' distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and b) cheats nationalities with small draw piles."

Me too. This should be good...
Steve

 

[Actionjick]

Waiting on Herr Hundsdorfer's mathematical explanation as to why a) "the 'Pleva Rule' distorts probabilities well beyond what the designers envisioned and b) cheats nationalities with small draw piles."

Well I would ask the designers what they envisioned if Herr Hundsdorfer thinks that they can remember or care. Relax and enjoy the game. ?

Fanatical fans of a TV show or whatever tend to know more about it then the creators. I'm sure the vast majority of the rules issues that arise on this forum never occurred to the designers. You guys probably know the system better than they did and are able to spot what they overlooked or never considered.

Btw that's a good thing, keep it up!!

 

[Actionjick]

Checking the Google one reference was that the NOBA gun line could be as close as one mile, beyond the effects of the surf IMHO. Another interesting fact was a study that found a 32% accuracy rate against a battleship sized target at 9 miles from the main guns.


Of course with a 2000 lb. HE shell 32% accuracy is probably sufficient.

Captain Bacchus and I love that kind of stuff. ?

Our gunners on the destroyer were not very good. Add to that was that we had no anti submarine capability. Sigh

The Iowa fired 16 inch shells to clear 200 yard wide LZs during Vietnam. WWII battleship @ 900 foot long. All things considered would not want to be on the receiving end.