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It really isn't

Sure but what that gives you is the probability that at least 1 and no more than 3 leaders are created. It doesn't tell you the most likely (expected) number of leaders that would be created per turn, which is 0

To work out what the expected number of leaders created you have to work out the probabilities for the various number of leaders created. Then from that you can work out what the most likely outcome is The table is : So the most likely outcome is no leader at all, second most likely is 1...

That's not how probability is calculated though. The formula of the situation is the binomial probability function that I posted earlier

I think you add +1 for every squad equivalent overstacked 16 HS = +5 ???

Yes so the first thing you need to calculate is the probability of rolling 1 or more 2's out of 16 attempts. That is the formula I posted earlier.

"What you have calculated is the p >=1 event occuring " Isn't that exactly what you are needing to know ? In 16 trials what is the probability of at least one event Event being an Orig DR of 2

Not a lot of nuance in mediocrity I guess

The probability of at least 1 occurrence though is p = 1 - (1 - .027)^16 -> that's about 0.35 Where do you get 16/36 from ?

Because 0 leaders are just doing the minimum, not being inspirational.

"For example, All level 0 DRM leaders are featureless vanilla. None of them ever lose concealment for being a leader in a hex because they don't have a drm so don't use it, although technically I guess they are mandated to use a drm of 0. Not very nuanced in either case. " I guess the 0 is an...

Which is exactly why I am suggesting a similar thing would apply to the Commissar.

No. It has to be "non-Abandoned "

Your odds of generating a single leader each turn, ie. out of 16 CC rolls, is about 0.29 so that's quite an investment for a less than 1/3 chance of a leader.

"after expending" - is still past tense

I think it is an important distinction to note that the -1 leadership does not alter a unit's morale and it isn't a passive thing, it's a deliberate application of something. I conceptualise it as a leadership modifier is the leader jumping to his feet and inspiring the men, the morale boost...

Sure but why was a specific exception made for that ?

Makes sense to me he would remain hidden, other than a momentary reveal to verify his presence, as he isn't performing an action. Much in the same way a leader can modify a PAATC without losing ?

Awesome mate, cheers

"Ye Olde Book of Map Making Secrets" Step 1 Go to the VASL Map Cabal website or the VASL Map Cabal Yahoo Group (see p.2 for the URL’s) and download the terrain libraries, color palette, and blank hexgrid for the geomorphic boards. :unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure::unsure: