Corona Virus and ASL

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BigAl737

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Aren't Alaska and Alaskans self-isolating by definition? ;)
I know you offered this with a wink but largely, yes. Just took a long hike today and only saw a handful of people. No trouble at all keeping 6’ separation. Alaska was also one of the first states to order hunker down in place and close the gyms and restaurants. I’m hoping these early measures, coupled with the more open spaces in which we live, will have a positive impact on lives saved.
 

Paul M. Weir

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4th 10 day slice:

RoI: Cases: 4994, 10.6%/day increase. Deaths: 158, 19.6%/day increase (6 not 10 day window) Death rate: 3.16%.

UK: Cases 47806, 15.2%/day increase. Deaths: 5373, 21.6%/day increase. Death rate: 11.2%

US: Cases 333593, 15.1%/day increase. Deaths: 9534 , 23.5%/day increase. Death rate: 2.9%

Trends for my posted 10 day windows.

RoI: 16.7%->14.3%->12.4%->10.6%
UK: (NA)->(NA)->16.8%->15.2%
USA: 28.0%->27.8%->19.9%->15.1%

The last 4 days have seen new case increases.

RoI: 12%, 11%, 8%, 8%.
UK: 14%, 13%, 10%, 14%.
US: 14%, 13%, 12%, 8%.
(oldest to yesterday respectively).

Note: Contrary to what I posted previously I have calculated the RoI death increase, but using only a 6 day window, using 6th root of ratio. Next time will be a 8 day window and after that will be 10 day like US, UK.

Commentary:
While the US is slower in reduction of new case percentages than RoI. it's catching up. Death increases are still high, but much of that can be explained by the 7-14 day lag between infection and serious illness and death. Increasing isolation seems to be having an effect.

I don't know WTF is happening in the UK, I really have no idea. New cases and deaths are in roughly line with RoI and US but the death rate is about 3-4 times of those! Does anyone here have ideas?

Unless it's:

Again and again the lesson is hunker down.

EDIT: I had to update (upwards) the UK deaths and recalculate the death increase rate and overall death rate.
 
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holdit

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I don't know WTF is happening in the UK, I really have no idea. New cases and deaths are in roughly line with RoI and US but the death rate is about 3-4 times of those! Does anyone here have ideas?
Could it be something to do with how the cause of death is recorded? In Germany, it seems that if there is an underlying illness then the that is recorded as the cause of death, not COVID-19, and I've also heard that Ireland is not including deaths in nursing homes in the total. Could it be that the UK is more inclined to record COVID-19 as the cause of death no matter what the background?
 

Paul M. Weir

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Yes, possibly that could be a reason. I doubt that is the case in the US though, too much competition for resources to understate Covid deaths. The US has almost the same death rate as RoI. I'll leave it up to others to calculate German (or other) figures.
 

Michael Dorosh

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I haven't read that, but after I wrote that comment I remembered the eco-warriors' plan in Rainbow Six.
I spent yesterday replaying my copy of Rainbow Six: Lockdown, and found the storyline eerily prescient.
 

dlazov

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I do wonder if the media is playing this up quite a bit. They mentioned in my area that all the hospitals were packed full and people were lined up to go in. Yesterday my wife and I took a drive around the city and countryside, and went by a few hospitals. There was absolutely no lines, and in fact they were all empty. We also watched a fellow in Brooklyn who had the same crazy media saying that they were stacked up outside the hospital an he actually filmed it and showed no such thing, no lines, no stacked up bodies, nothing.

It really does make you wonder when you see it with your own eyes that there is nothing going on or nothing as what the media and the government are reporting.
 

Michael Dorosh

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I do wonder if the media is playing this up quite a bit. They mentioned in my area that all the hospitals were packed full and people were lined up to go in. Yesterday my wife and I took a drive around the city and countryside, and went by a few hospitals. There was absolutely no lines, and in fact they were all empty. We also watched a fellow in Brooklyn who had the same crazy media saying that they were stacked up outside the hospital an he actually filmed it and showed no such thing, no lines, no stacked up bodies, nothing.

It really does make you wonder when you see it with your own eyes that there is nothing going on or nothing as what the media and the government are reporting.
Hospitals do their discharges in the morning. If you drove by in the afternoon, the new intake would have been settled in, but quite possible there were line-ups earlier in the day.
 

dlazov

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Hospitals do their discharges in the morning. If you drove by in the afternoon, the new intake would have been settled in, but quite possible there were line-ups earlier in the day.
Perhaps your right and there were many cases lined up, we certainly did not see anything out of the norm.
 

Ganjulama

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Hospitals do their discharges in the morning. If you drove by in the afternoon, the new intake would have been settled in, but quite possible there were line-ups earlier in the day.
Perhaps Canadian hospitals do their discharges in the morning but that is certainly not the case in any US hospital I've worked at. Typically MDs round in the mornings and write DC orders. Then the discharge planners jump into the picture. RNs need to do DC education. Transport is arranged if necessary, etc. It was very unusual to get admitted patients out the door before lunch.
 

Paul M. Weir

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Don, please, please stay isolated!! I don't want you to be in the running for a Darwin Award, it's likely to be a very crowded field this year with all the pandemic deniers and understaters.


All humour aside, this is deadly serious.
 

Michael Dorosh

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Don, please, please stay isolated!! I don't want you to be in the running for a Darwin Award, it's likely to be a very crowded field this year with all the pandemic deniers and understaters.


All humour aside, this is deadly serious.
How would he catch a virus by driving around in his car? All seriousness aside, this is deadly funny.
 

holdit

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I do wonder if the media is playing this up quite a bit. They mentioned in my area that all the hospitals were packed full and people were lined up to go in. Yesterday my wife and I took a drive around the city and countryside, and went by a few hospitals. There was absolutely no lines, and in fact they were all empty. We also watched a fellow in Brooklyn who had the same crazy media saying that they were stacked up outside the hospital an he actually filmed it and showed no such thing, no lines, no stacked up bodies, nothing.

It really does make you wonder when you see it with your own eyes that there is nothing going on or nothing as what the media and the government are reporting.
We had a couple to instances like this in Ireland too, but it was actually hospitals that had cleared out elective and non-critical patients in order to be ready for an influx of COVID-19 patients, and the COVID-19 patients were being sent to particular hospitals first.
 

dlazov

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Here where I live, we are 'sheltering-in-place', but about once a week we have to craw out of our 'bunkers' and restock up on water, meat and veggies (and toilet paper, lol). Seriously thanks for the well wishes, but we are also stocked up pretty good now, except for bottled water, so we decided to ration what we have (about 4 cases) and use the tap for tea and coffee and such. But yeah driving around in one's car should be perfectly safe, at least as safe or safer then another day.
 

Mister T

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But yeah driving around in one's car should be perfectly safe, at least as safe or safer then another day.
A light injury in a car accident, and you would be transported to an hospital filled with Covid patients...
 

dlazov

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Well there is that...

Kinda a kin to getting million dollar wound and then the medic track takes a CH!
 

Michael Dorosh

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A light injury in a car accident, and you would be transported to an hospital filled with Covid patients...
They don't keep them in the in ED, I would hope. And you wouldn't be transported for a 'light injury.' You always have the option of refusing transport.
 

Paul M. Weir

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Good to hear Don.

I have grocery shops at and just around the corner from me. Once a week or longer for food and backy (only once a fortnight). I bought a 16 pack of toilet rolls mid last year and still have 12 and a bit :p. I never have to buy water as the South Dublin city municipal supply is both very drinkable and very palatable on it's own. Next outing for me will be an acquaintance who on Thursday will bring me to a supermarket to stock up on dried cat food and whatever I might eat but isn't in my local shops. While there are more sparse or empty shelves we have not seen much panic and no TR fights.

It's just that I read about some woman in Texas who denounced the Covid warnings as a socialist hoax and died from it.
GSers overall seem to be acting sensibly, but just in case ...
 
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