Recent content by Magpie

  1. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    It really isn't
  2. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    Sure but what that gives you is the probability that at least 1 and no more than 3 leaders are created. It doesn't tell you the most likely (expected) number of leaders that would be created per turn, which is 0
  3. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    To work out what the expected number of leaders created you have to work out the probabilities for the various number of leaders created. Then from that you can work out what the most likely outcome is The table is : So the most likely outcome is no leader at all, second most likely is 1...
  4. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    That's not how probability is calculated though. The formula of the situation is the binomial probability function that I posted earlier
  5. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    I think you add +1 for every squad equivalent overstacked 16 HS = +5 ???
  6. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    Yes so the first thing you need to calculate is the probability of rolling 1 or more 2's out of 16 attempts. That is the formula I posted earlier.
  7. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    "What you have calculated is the p >=1 event occuring " Isn't that exactly what you are needing to know ? In 16 trials what is the probability of at least one event Event being an Orig DR of 2
  8. Magpie

    Followup Commissar question

    Not a lot of nuance in mediocrity I guess
  9. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    The probability of at least 1 occurrence though is p = 1 - (1 - .027)^16 -> that's about 0.35 Where do you get 16/36 from ?
  10. Magpie

    Followup Commissar question

    Because 0 leaders are just doing the minimum, not being inspirational.
  11. Magpie

    Commissar question

    "For example, All level 0 DRM leaders are featureless vanilla. None of them ever lose concealment for being a leader in a hex because they don't have a drm so don't use it, although technically I guess they are mandated to use a drm of 0. Not very nuanced in either case. " I guess the 0 is an...
  12. Magpie

    Commissar question

    Which is exactly why I am suggesting a similar thing would apply to the Commissar.
  13. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    No. It has to be "non-Abandoned "
  14. Magpie

    Leader Factory!

    Your odds of generating a single leader each turn, ie. out of 16 CC rolls, is about 0.29 so that's quite an investment for a less than 1/3 chance of a leader.
  15. Magpie

    Pinned after moving

    "after expending" - is still past tense
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