Recent content by Aaron Cleavin

  1. Aaron Cleavin

    ASL 172 5 ATR?

    ASL 172 has 5 ATR and 1 Squad for Russian Group 8. I think an over-print of the number of ? counters No errata I can find though Thoughts?
  2. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    RG CG 3 or the big new RO CG are the only cases where I think it might work. Even then somewhat marginal and dependent on creating a wreck in the right sheltered spot (would normally need to be a tank of one's own)
  3. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    The idea came after a wonderful game of ASL with Ken Young a true gentleman, and virtuoso player. He very legitimately CC'd his own wreck to attempt to create some smoke cover. He was as embarrassed as I was astonished when a field promotion occurred form this; which led my twisted mind on a...
  4. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    A proven theorum :)
  5. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Summing the first 5 terms we get 0.4444269675303 converging as you say to 4/9 == 16/36
  6. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    It is exactly how expectancy is calculated in statistics, as per the formula I posted
  7. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Sum m*P and you will get 16/36
  8. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    We aren't talking about most likely outcome we are talking about expectancy which is 16/36
  9. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Overtstacking +5 Immobile, CE, No maneed useable MG -3 If you roll a 1,1 you may genrate an 8-1 leader In this case CCV = 3+1 = 4 DRM +5 -3 -1 (Ldr) == Net +1 Final DR = 3 which is not <= 1/2 of 4 This no burn is possible. The 8-1 possibliity is why and overstacking of 5 is needed to...
  10. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Not at all what we want to know is how many leaders are generated (on average) in a player turn, rather than the chance of one or more being generated.
  11. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    16/36 is the Expectancy. for independent events E(nX) = n*E(X) Let {\displaystyle X} be a random variable with a countable set of finite outcomes {\displaystyle x_{1}}, {\displaystyle x_{2}}, ..., occurring with probabilities {\displaystyle p_{1}}, {\displaystyle p_{2}}, ..., respectively...
  12. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    That's per player turn so with 16 HS say you get 32/36 leaders per turn, or almost a whole Leader. BTW 16/36 = 0.44 not 0.29 (Possibly 0.29 of exactly one leader, and sometimes you get >1)
  13. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Note that ultimately I am suggesting that field promotion when attacking a wreck should be N/A.
  14. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Best Fuel is I think 15 237's Leader mix not quite as rich but still very good and taking a 2nd line Coy out much better than an elite one
  15. Aaron Cleavin

    Leader Factory!

    Just found a way to wreck a long CG , put 16 248s in a hex with a CT AFV wreck, each player turn they will generate 16/36 leaders with no chance of burning the wreck 2/3 chance of 8-1 and 1/3 of 8-0. The leader balance per Amierican, British, German, not quite as good for others.
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