Aaron Cleavin's latest activity

  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    RG CG 3 or the big new RO CG are the only cases where I think it might work. Even then somewhat marginal and dependent on creating a...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    The idea came after a wonderful game of ASL with Ken Young a true gentleman, and virtuoso player. He very legitimately CC'd his own...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin reacted to Sparafucil3's post in the thread Leader Factory! with Like.
    This is a lot of back and forth for something I think most people would walk away from the game over. A little sleaze here and there is...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    A proven theorum :)
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin reacted to Philippe D.'s post in the thread Leader Factory! with Like.
    OK, so I see where the confusion comes from. The word "expected" is interpreted as meaning whatever is most likely to happen. (The...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Summing the first 5 terms we get 0.4444269675303 converging as you say to 4/9 == 16/36
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    It is exactly how expectancy is calculated in statistics, as per the formula I posted
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Sum m*P and you will get 16/36
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    We aren't talking about most likely outcome we are talking about expectancy which is 16/36
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Overtstacking +5 Immobile, CE, No maneed useable MG -3 If you roll a 1,1 you may genrate an 8-1 leader In this case CCV = 3+1 = 4...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Not at all what we want to know is how many leaders are generated (on average) in a player turn, rather than the chance of one or more...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    16/36 is the Expectancy. for independent events E(nX) = n*E(X) Let {\displaystyle X} be a random variable with a countable set of...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    That's per player turn so with 16 HS say you get 32/36 leaders per turn, or almost a whole Leader. BTW 16/36 = 0.44 not 0.29 (Possibly...
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Note that ultimately I am suggesting that field promotion when attacking a wreck should be N/A.
  • Aaron Cleavin
    Aaron Cleavin replied to the thread Leader Factory!.
    Best Fuel is I think 15 237's Leader mix not quite as rich but still very good and taking a 2nd line Coy out much better than an elite one
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