Great idea for a thread. People obviously appreciate the deep look into vM's brain, and that's good. Setups are hard to figure out, especially for new players.
I think vM was clear enough - this is the kind of analysis you can do if you want to, if you have time, and is especially good for VASL games where you have plenty of time to mull things over. It's very fun to chew on this kind of thing.
That said, one can overthink things. I'll offer a different perspective on looking at the Russian setup, pre-concealment. I don't have and haven't played the scenario, so forgive me any ignorance my comments may show. I'm just going off of what vM says in the top part of his post 11 above. I didn't read the rest of that post, just so I wouldn't be tainted by his thoughts ;-) I will read that once I post my own thoughts; interesting to compare, especially given that my thoughts are off the top of my head and thus more attuned to a FtF situation.
1) Look at what you see and make a rough count of what's left unaccounted for. We have 11 Russian squads in the OB and can see 5. We have 8 Russian ? counters in the OB and can see 6. So we have 6 as-yet-unconfirmed squads and enough unconfirmed ? counters to have a little Dummy Madness going on - maybe a single ?x3 stack is a Dummy top-to-bottom, maybe two of those Concealed stacks have two ?'s on top so they could split out a ?x2 later on.... whatever. Lemme emphasize that: WHATEVER. There's just a few Dummies out there and they're going to be revealed through the course of play. I'm sure not going to waste good attacks on them; I'm going to move and see who fires at me, I'm going to get into positions where he can't fall back from his front line without moving into Open Ground (and thus losing concealment; Board 1 is deceptively open that way), and I'm going to bump-scout (move into locations with enemy concealed units, revealing them if they're Dummies). If my opponent wants to feel like his Dummies are causing havoc in my brain, let him. They won't.
2) The Russian OB has two leaders and two SW. Yes, it's really easy/obvious to assume one leader and SW per flank, and I'm not above the easy/obvious thing. Given how Russian MG's are heavy and need a leader to help them move (and keep them from Cowering when they fire), and given how Firelanes are probably important to the Russian defense, I'm thinking the Russians probably have leaders stacked with MGs here.
(Edit - well, duh, yeah, LMGs are only 1PP so don't really need a leader to help MOVE them, but LMGs are still pretty useful in laying firelanes in urban battles like this, and they need leaders to direct their fire and keep them from cowering).
F3 probably has a leader/squad/MG. The Russian right doesn't have any ?x4 stacks, so that second leader/squad/MG stack is probably HIP, waiting to pop up and lay down a firelane. I don't know the scenario VC's, but I'd anticipate that second stack being somewhere like I7, M4, B6, or A4 (see the red FL lines in the image below).
Heck, notice how M6 has a nice firelane opportunity; you can start the game HIP and not be revealed until the opponent has LOS to you. Yes, he'd be revealed as soon as Turn 1 started (placed under a ? counter if the Romanians have LOS to his location), but he's far enough away from the Romanian setup to probably survive any Turn 1 prep fire against him, and his FL opportunity(while hindered by the orchard in K4) is still pretty sweet, especially given the Surprise Factor. Sure, he'd need to reposition in the Russian turn 1, but he'd probably be doing that anyway. Also, he'd be able to take advantage of the Road Bonus when moving, and he could swing to his right or the center if he wanted.
3) That HIP unit. A lot depends on my opponent's personality here, so we can't speculate too much, but the Russian left looks so open that I'd suspect something in A4 or B3. Even B6 or C6 if my opponent were patient enough. Again, though, I'd plan on finding the HIP unit through aggressively moving. Not "stupidly moving"; I wouldn't give him any juicy stacks to blast. But you betcha I'm gonna move MMC through every bit of HIP-able terrain I find, and more importantly, I'm gonna expect that HIPster to pop up and hurt me at some point. Hopefully the scenario has given me enough units to withstand that pain (and hopefully I don't make things worse by risking too many of them by moving in stacks). Beyond that? SHRUG. There's a HIP MMC out there. It will hurt when I find it. But I'm gonna move aggressively and hope to either find it early, find it without giving up a -2 FFNAM/FFMO shot, find it without giving up a shot at a moving leader-led stack, etc. My FINDING IT will be just as important to me as my opponent's temporary happiness at USING it. Cuz once it's revealed, I don't have to worry anymore.
4) I expect the Russian Guns to be in the rear, probably in/near the VC area(s). Beyond that, shrug. The sooner I find them, the better - one of their biggest advantages is their HIP. I suspect that's part of the armor game here, and I just don't have enough information to say more.
At any rate. HtH.