I believe you are correct that without a specific SSR denoting that the SS 548 would be replaced by SS 447s would not be enacted because unless playing a CG/CG-related scenario where that is the case. Neither SS 548 or SS 447 are provided for in "Official" ASL (other than in CGs & this does not translate to other non-CG specific scenarios). Barring an SSR to denote the Replacement/Assault Fire/Underlined Morale or Increased broken Morale, the notation that the 548 are SS (even if presented in Black SS colors) would have no further impact upon the scenario than if they were any other 548 units other than the notation they are SS units. However, I can certainly see where an SSR to that affect may seem to be be "implied".
IMO, the SSR in ASL120 treats the 5-4-8/2-3-8 MMC in the OB as SS, which apart from making them Elite (like a standard 5-4-8/2-3-8) gives these MMC an increase in their broken Morale Level (as explicitly noted in the SSR), and the
implied ability to Massacre (A20.4). However, given that the SSR does not reference A25.11 specifically, some might argue that Massacre is NA. I don't think that this is a strong argument. But even if the SSR had referenced A25.11, there is no mention of underscored Morale in this rule section, which brings me to my next point.
I do believe that the SSR and A19.13 are nevertheless clear in noting that the 5-4-8/2-3-8 MMC are Replaced normally. The normal Replacement schema for a unit
without an underscored Morale Factor involves a reduction in Strength Factors (in this case, from a 5-4-8/2-3-8 to a 4-4-7/2-3-7),
and a drop in Class. A 5-4-8 is Elite, and whether SS or not, must be Replaced by an MMC of a lower Class. An SS 4-4-7/2-3-7 is Elite, and therefore NA for Replacement purposes--barring an SSR to the contrary (e.g. R6.2 and FB15.1). As far as I can tell, there is nothing in SSR 4 to indicate that the 5-4-8/2-3-8 should be treated as having underscored Morale in ASL120.
Yes, the Bulgarians might just need the slightest balance provision, or a slight run of luck, but the SS player is not without his challenges as well. <snip>
I think the toughest decision is when to reveal/fire the 88s. <snip>
Like I said, the Bulgarians have a challenge, but the Germans are not without their own. I find your Replacement analysis interesting, as it makes me wonder whether or not Replacement-misplays like ours IS what resulted in the ROAR disparity (it was 10G/3B before our entry). Would love to hear a post-game analysis from someone who Replaces the SS 5-4-8 with 2nd Line Germans rather than 4-4-7 SS; perhaps that would be the difference maker and 'even things up'.
Good points re the 88s. However, I'm not sure that the Germans have the luxury of waiting for the FB to leave. Without any ATMM/PF to keep the Bulgarian tanks honest, the 88s may need to take one for the team early on.
Keep in mind too that with an ELR2, many Bulgarian 5-3-7 and 3-4-7 MMC will be Replaced with Conscripts. Climbing the hills on board 50, even without rain, will be slow going for 3-3-6 squads.
I was going to email Brian Martuzas, but I see that you have already sent him a PM. Thanks for that.
-chris