What if, Europe 1943

[piero1971]

Here is a What if Scnenario that I might do, based on my abortive early attempt to do a what if 1946 scenario of US-UK invasion of a nazi europe (Germany beeig victorious).


in fact it might make historical sense if one takes back that assumption to 1943 based on this What if:

1. Germany does not launch battle of britain and lets the Italians loose libya by not sending Rommel there but Germany wins in RUssia in the winter of 1941, soviet Union collapses and russian forces, despite lend-lease, etc. are mopped up in 1942. Germany reaches the Caucasus and Urals and seizes Soviet industry and resources.

2. Japan wisely stays out of war and focuses on China. that's painfull enough for them

3. US president Roosevelt's war footing of the US makes it - just as historically ready as it was in real history, and ends up putting the US in war against Germany and Italy in late 1942.

options for France and Spain to be invaded by US/UK forces, etc.

I am thinking of using a mod map of europe at 10km/hex scale. going from poland to portugal and UK to north africa.

any ideas?

especially on what would Germany industry look like with the addition of Soviet industries and no or little strategic bombing in 1942?

[Bloodstar]

Here is a What if Scnenario that I might do, based on my abortive early attempt to do a what if 1946 scenario of US-UK invasion of a nazi europe (Germany beeig victorious).


in fact it might make historical sense if one takes back that assumption to 1943 based on this What if:

1. Germany does not launch battle of britain and lets the Italians loose libya by not sending Rommel there but Germany wins in RUssia in the winter of 1941, soviet Union collapses and russian forces, despite lend-lease, etc. are mopped up in 1942. Germany reaches the Caucasus and Urals and seizes Soviet industry and resources.

2. Japan wisely stays out of war and focuses on China. that's painfull enough for them

3. US president Roosevelt's war footing of the US makes it - just as historically ready as it was in real history, and ends up putting the US in war against Germany and Italy in late 1942.

options for France and Spain to be invaded by US/UK forces, etc.

I am thinking of using a mod map of europe at 10km/hex scale. going from poland to portugal and UK to north africa.

any ideas?

especially on what would Germany industry look like with the addition of Soviet industries and no or little strategic bombing in 1942?


Great idea Piero!

The problem is that great gear of German industry was generated by Speer which so increase from 1943 and peaked at 1944.

We can imagine that knocking Soviet Union out of war will turn Germany into putting more resouces into naval and air tech and production.

So you may make scenario more interesting as this:

In late 1941. seeing that Soviet Union will collapse Germans have made expansion of their fleet - they put to production 4 aircraft carriers, 4 battleship H-class (?), 6 heavy cruiser, 10 light cruisers and 30 destroyers. (too much?) :lier::bite:

In terms of air tech, Germans expanded their para units and transport plane fleet. Fighter, fighter bomber production increased and Germans have developed and made into production Strategic Bomber fleet.


Sorry if ideas are bad haha :clown:


Mario

[Veers]

Here is a What if Scnenario that I might do, based on my abortive early attempt to do a what if 1946 scenario of US-UK invasion of a nazi europe (Germany beeig victorious).


in fact it might make historical sense if one takes back that assumption to 1943 based on this What if:

1. Germany does not launch battle of britain and lets the Italians loose libya by not sending Rommel there but Germany wins in RUssia in the winter of 1941, soviet Union collapses and russian forces, despite lend-lease, etc. are mopped up in 1942. Germany reaches the Caucasus and Urals and seizes Soviet industry and resources.

2. Japan wisely stays out of war and focuses on China. that's painfull enough for them

3. US president Roosevelt's war footing of the US makes it - just as historically ready as it was in real history, and ends up putting the US in war against Germany and Italy in late 1942.

options for France and Spain to be invaded by US/UK forces, etc.

I am thinking of using a mod map of europe at 10km/hex scale. going from poland to portugal and UK to north africa.

any ideas?

especially on what would Germany industry look like with the addition of Soviet industries and no or little strategic bombing in 1942?


I wonder if the Western Allies would even stand a chance against a victorious Germany...? How would they get a proper sized beachhead, without the Germans distracted in Russia? If they did manage to get a beachhead, how would they fare against an economically huge German Empire?

[Polynike]

the key might have been a massive superiority in the air and at sea. then build on from there.

[piero1971]

well, some German forces would still be distracted by Russia... after all colonisation has it's perils...

and of course with victory, german economy might run a bit inefficient...

but on the Allied side, the US can bring millions of men under arms, 3 to 4 times the industrial production of the new Nazi empire... and a superior navy (30+ aircraft carriers)....

a lot of options should be open for both sides

for the german:
- economy to war speed
- jets as fighters or bombers
- develop or not strategic bombers
- develop or not surface navy
- develop or not V-weapons
- develop or not nukes

for the allied:
- declare war to spain or enter portugal (that's a large and easy beachead)
... others?

[Bloodstar]

well, some German forces would still be distracted by Russia... after all colonisation has it's perils...

and of course with victory, german economy might run a bit inefficient...

but on the Allied side, the US can bring millions of men under arms, 3 to 4 times the industrial production of the new Nazi empire... and a superior navy (30+ aircraft carriers)....

a lot of options should be open for both sides

for the german:
- economy to war speed
- jets as fighters or bombers
- develop or not strategic bombers
- develop or not surface navy
- develop or not V-weapons
- develop or not nukes

for the allied:
- declare war to spain or enter portugal (that's a large and easy beachead)
... others?

one for allies, threaten Turkey to stop sending metal ore to Germany, if you do that you are at war with Turkey and Germans get some other TO

[Bryan Holtby]

Major changes would be made to the German armoured forces. IS series of tanks were under developement in early 42. Anyone with half a brain could see how superior the HULL (not the turret layout or ammo supply) was to anything the Germans had built. This would ultimately lead to a morphing of the IS hull, which was essentially a stretched KV hull, and the Panther/Tiger turret/gun. Even had Germany mopped up the Russians in 42, they would have/should have seen how inferior their tanks were to the T-34 design.

The German fleet would not come to being for 2 reasons. The amount of steel needed for those ships would consume German production and likely a good percentage of what Russia's capability was. Remember, the US sent Russia steel on the Murmansk convoy runs as Russian couldnt meet its own demand, let along pumping out 200,000 tons of steel for shipbuilding. The German shipyard (they only had one) couldnt produce more than two 800' ships at once, both taking up a slip for two years+.

When it comes to fighter production, Germany didnt see the light until 44. The 'light' being that in order to win the war, you must control the air. It is unlikely that they would be any more insightful had they won the war in Russia.

One thing certainly would change. If Italy was left to its own resources without German aid of any type until the collapse of Russia, its likely that Italy would have shared the fate of Russia in 42. Even a small UK army could land in Italy and defeat the Italian army. Which would have likely been tossed off the continent by the returning German army.

Germany would also be in possesion of a workable strategic bomber, something they didnt have in 42. They would also have a factory to build them in. If there would be a workforce to operate the factory is another question. Nazy occupation policies being what they were would mean a hostile, uncooperative population and slave labour doesnt provide the best products. I certainly wouldnt want to fly in a plane built by slave labour.

The question is if it would be more cost effective to have said slave labour make V1 and V2 rockets over the bombers. A steady stream of rockets built in Russia would have really made a mess of southern England.

Ultimately, England may have asked for peace if she lost her army in Italy and since Hitler actually respected the English, he may have taken it.

[samba_liten]

With free access to Russian oil, might not Germany have motorized or mechanized a larger proportion of their forces, That is; lots of PZ Grenadiers?

Also, with Germany victorious in the east, how many foreign voluteer s might have joined up? What about fascist Spain?
Would Franco have been content to wait for an allied invasion instead of joining the apparently undestructible Hitler in his adventures?
With all that Russian slave labour and industry, might not Italy and Spain (if she joined in) have recieved substantial amounts of "lend-lease" material from Germany? Or perhaps second hand Soviet stuff?

Lastly, with victory in the east already achieved, would Hitler reall have concented to building a strategic bomber?

Mostly political stuff i guess, but still

[Joao Lima]

...
Also, with Germany victorious in the east, how many foreign voluteer s might have joined up? What about fascist Spain?
Would Franco have been content to wait for an allied invasion instead of joining the apparently undestructible Hitler in his adventures? ...

I'm not exactelly a specialist on this, but, Spain's politics weren't dictated by who was winning , there was the questions of all the credits that the US and the UK were loaning to Spain in order to allow them to buy food in South America, and also, the questionof Franco's whishes towards North Africa , that seriously clashed with anything the French had in there (If Vichy France is still a fact, anyway giving amounts of French real estate in North Africa wouldn't be the best way to put the French to rest.), also the shipment of the 'Blue Division' wasn't very peacefull even inside the Spanish government.

[Telumar]

- develop or not V-weapons
- develop or not nukes



Hm. Think about it. :smoke: :surprise:

[samba_liten]

I'm not exactelly a specialist on this, but, Spain's politics weren't dictated by who was winning , there was the questions of all the credits that the US and the UK were loaning to Spain in order to allow them to buy food in South America, and also, the questionof Franco's whishes towards North Africa , that seriously clashed with anything the French had in there (If Vichy France is still a fact, anyway giving amounts of French real estate in North Africa wouldn't be the best way to put the French to rest.), also the shipment of the 'Blue Division' wasn't very peacefull even inside the Spanish government.


I wasnt aware of the loans from the Western Aliies to Spain, nor the fact that the Blue Division was not popular.

However, i like seeing Spain in ww2 scenarios:halo:
So, heres another suggestion/theory.

If Germany defeated the USSR like this Might he not be "rich" enough to replace or at least supplement the western loans with his own? And further, might he not convince Vichy France to give up some territory in order to gain a new ally (with a bit of a fleet, in case he decides to try Seeloewe), or just to pre-emt an allied invasion like he did in Norway?

[Ben Turner]

also the shipment of the 'Blue Division' wasn't very peacefull even inside the Spanish government.

I dunno. Far more men volunteered for service in Russia than were sent. I'd say the idea of beating Communism was pretty popular amongst certain sections of the Spanish public. If parts of the government disapproved it was for reasons of Realpolitik rather than reflecting public opinion.

[piero1971]

spain, would not have joined the Axis. Spain was out of a brutal civil war and "terrorist" hunt was still going on in some areas.
France wanted to re-build spain and while accepting that some volunteers fight for Germany, it did not want to face the might of the US and England.
in fact, he played it smarter than Italy's Mussolini.

of course, an US seeking to land ine europe might chose to make a "spanish Torch"... and DoW on "all fascisms"

landing a million US troops in Portugal/Spain would definitely put a toehold in europe.

[Ben Turner]

spain, would not have joined the Axis. Spain was out of a brutal civil war and "terrorist" hunt was still going on in some areas.

Quite. Spain had far too much to lose and very little to gain. Further, Franco's conservative government in reality had little in common with the revolutionary regimes of Hitler and Mussolini besides anti-communism.

landing a million US troops in Portugal/Spain would definitely put a toehold in europe.

Portugal might be co-operative if they think the Allies are likely to win the war. Of course they don't have a hope in a conventional campaign against an Axis Europe.

[rasmus]

I think it unlikely that the western allies could gain a toehold in mainland europe if germany was victorious in the east. Even if the russian territories needed a lot of manpower to be kept down, this could be done with second rate troops. All armoured and mechanized forces could then be used against the western allies.

It took two years to build up for DDAY and several weeks of fighting to break out of normandy, with the better part of the german army tied up in russia.
Had all or most of the german panzers been available I think it would have gone rather differently.

Should the allies choose to invade from further away (as they did in the Torch landings) the buildup would be considerably slower. There was a reason that Torch was directed against the "neutral" french and not the germans.

Just my two cents.

[Joao Lima]

.... If parts of the government disapproved it was for reasons of Realpolitik rather than reflecting public opinion.

Precisely.

[Joao Lima]

...
Portugal might be co-operative if they think the Allies are likely to win the war. Of course they don't have a hope in a conventional campaign against an Axis Europe.


I still find interesting that idea, the Pyrenees shouldn't exactly be invader friendly, maybe they could pull an 'Hannibal' style manoeuvre... :laugh:

I seriously think that once invaded the Portuguese gov would line up with the invader, as long as it didn't affect their colonies they would go with it, on the other hand, after 'La Lys' , they were a bit suspicious about fighting side-by-side with the British :devious: and so they wouldn't surely be dragged onto participating in the war. All in all, I see Portugal aligning themselves much more quickly with the Allies than with the Axis, specially when one considers the position of the main Portuguese colonies.

[Bill II]

spain, would not have joined the Axis. Spain was out of a brutal civil war and "terrorist" hunt was still going on in some areas.
France wanted to re-build spain and while accepting that some volunteers fight for Germany, it did not want to face the might of the US and England.
in fact, he played it smarter than Italy's Mussolini.

of course, an US seeking to land ine europe might chose to make a "spanish Torch"... and DoW on "all fascisms"

landing a million US troops in Portugal/Spain would definitely put a toehold in europe.

But that would be the one thing that could drive Franco into joining the Axis.

[Ben Turner]

I still find interesting that idea, the Pyrenees shouldn't exactly be invader friendly, maybe they could pull an 'Hannibal' style manoeuvre... :laugh:

I seriously think that once invaded the Portuguese gov would line up with the invader, as long as it didn't affect their colonies they would go with it, on the other hand, after 'La Lys' , they were a bit suspicious about fighting side-by-side with the British :devious: and so they wouldn't surely be dragged onto participating in the war. All in all, I see Portugal aligning themselves much more quickly with the Allies than with the Axis, specially when one considers the position of the main Portuguese colonies.

If the Allies are to have any hope at all they need;
a) Portugal to allow them to debark directly in their ports
b) there to be no German troops in Spain at the time.

This allows the Allies to get ashore enough force to hold a beachead. Otherwise the Germans will deliver a hundred divisions to the landing point as soon as it is established. Even as it is things will be dicey- and there is just no way the Allies can produce enough force to overwhelm the Germans in a conventional fight. An enhanced strategic campaign with nuclear weapons would be about the only way. Unless Germany could develop her own, she will be forced to come to terms once the United States can deliver enough bombs- which will be sometime around 1948.

Said terms will probably restore Western and Northern Europe to it's 1939 frontiers, but award large areas to Germany in the East. Not much the Allies can do about it. Perhaps a rump Polish state.

[Ben Turner]

But that would be the one thing that could drive Franco into joining the Axis.

Oh indeed. But if Germany has conquered all of Europe besides, that's the least of the Allies' worries.

[Bob Cross]

Quite. Spain had far too much to lose and very little to gain. Further, Franco's conservative government in reality had little in common with the revolutionary regimes of Hitler and Mussolini besides anti-communism.

Actually, they might have had more to lose by not joining the Axis. Gibraltar was strategic. Hitler would definitely want it, even if it means invading Spain. So Spain can look at those idle German Army Groups in France and ponder whether they want to join in the fun and looting, or be the fun and looting.

[Joao Lima]

If the Allies are to have any hope at all they need;
a) Portugal to allow them to debark directly in their ports
...

Port you mean. Not much more than Lisbon that would be of any use back then.

[Ben Turner]

Port you mean. Not much more than Lisbon that would be of any use back then.

Well, one can do a lot with even a sheltered harbour and a couple of piers. More than one can do with a beach open to the Atlantic, certainly.

[Ben Turner]

Actually, they might have had more to lose by not joining the Axis. Gibraltar was strategic. Hitler would definitely want it, even if it means invading Spain. So Spain can look at those idle German Army Groups in France and ponder whether they want to join in the fun and looting, or be the fun and looting.

I suppose if Russia is beaten and the Western Allies are still fighting, Germany's eyes are going to fix on Gibraltar fairly swiftly. At that point, Franco can be fairly confident that a) not co-operating will be fatal and b) co-operating will be more or less cost free, since there is realistically no task available for Spanish troops.

Of course this means German troops in Spain (and probably in portugal too). This means no scenario. D-Day doesn't just happen whatever; it depended on the Allies being able to build up force by sea more rapidly than the Germans could by land.

[samba_liten]

If what Ben Turner said in the previous post holds true, it seems the scenario would not be a western European one, but rather one where the allies try to get back in the Med through east Africa. That is if they do not simply give the war up for lost, or try an invasion of France anyway.

Or, possibly the scenario starts when Hitler moves across the mountains into spain, and the allies send an expeditionary force to help Franco (that is, if he did not just cave in to the pressure). All of which might mean a sort of 1940s version of the Peninsular war, featuring Monty, in the role of Wellington.

[Ben Turner]

If what Ben Turner said in the previous post holds true, it seems the scenario would not be a western European one, but rather one where the allies try to get back in the Med through east Africa. That is if they do not simply give the war up for lost, or try an invasion of France anyway.

Or, possibly the scenario starts when Hitler moves across the mountains into spain, and the allies send an expeditionary force to help Franco (that is, if he did not just cave in to the pressure). All of which might mean a sort of 1940s version of the Peninsular war, featuring Monty, in the role of Wellington.

I don't see such a campaign going well for the British given the advent of modern artillery and airpower.

[piero1971]

these questions are exactly why I am curious about this scenario.

it was quite possible that Japan chose not to attack the US in 1941.

and in this condition, pres Roosevelt was very committed to bring the US into war against Germany anyway.

it was also quite possible of a russian collapse.

then the US, with 3-4 million troops, a mighty army and air force had what options?

[piero1971]

I don't see such a campaign going well for the British given the advent of modern artillery and airpower.

yes, and monty, was no wellington (if that's even comparable).

and spain is no blitzkrieg country. looooots of mountains all over the place.

[Ben Turner]

then the US, with 3-4 million troops, a mighty army and air force had what options?

I don't think the Allies would be able to mount a successful invasion of Europe if Russia has been defeated. Perhaps an alternative vision would be one where the Germans are more successful in 1942 and are poised to knock Russia out of the war in 1943. The Allies determine to launch Roundup in the late Summer in order to save Russia.

[Infohazard]

these questions are exactly why I am curious about this scenario.

it was quite possible that Japan chose not to attack the US in 1941.

and in this condition, pres Roosevelt was very committed to bring the US into war against Germany anyway.

it was also quite possible of a russian collapse.

then the US, with 3-4 million troops, a mighty army and air force had what options?

How about this . . .
Franco, fearing the Germans will invade Spain to get Gibraltar, enters into secret negotiations with the Allies and agrees that in exchange for his continued independence and a few hefty bribes (armaments? $? Gibraltar returned to Spain? Florida returned to Spain?:laugh: ), he'll allow his country to be used as a springboard for an attack on Germany.
Game turn 1 starts with US/British paratroopers ready to go, Spanish airfields open to allied planes and a huge fleet of transports off the Spanish coast (Germany's been fooled into thinking they're going to Africa).
Spanish units are allowed to defend their territory against the Axis, but aren't allowed to leave Spain's national boundries.

[Veers]

How about this . . .
Franco, fearing the Germans will invade Spain to get Gibraltar, enters into secret negotiations with the Allies and agrees that in exchange for his continued independence and a few hefty bribes (armaments? $? Gibraltar returned to Spain? Florida returned to Spain?:laugh: ), he'll allow his country to be used as a springboard for an attack on Germany.
Game turn 1 starts with US/British paratroopers ready to go, Spanish airfields open to allied planes and a huge fleet of transports off the Spanish coast (Germany's been fooled into thinking they're going to Africa).
Spanish units are allowed to defend their territory against the Axis, but aren't allowed to leave Spain's national boundries.
That sounds reasonable.

[Mantis]

Ok, I've hesitated in posting, as I cannot locate my source... But I recently skimmed through a book my designer/WWII nut/buddy has been raving about. Although it was a biography, it touched quite heavily on the Spanish negotiations. One of the main ideas conveyed by the book is how this man, loyal to the German people and quite highly placed, had reservations about the Nazi party, and seemed to work at cross-purposes to Hitler and his goals. While not quite traitorous (he was acting in what he felt to be the best interests of Germany), his actions neverthelesss served to undermine Axis plans, especially in regards to diplomacy with Spain.

The gist of it was that he got 'in' with Franco, and advised him of what it was he should ask for from Hitler to secure Spanish entry. The things he told Franco to demand were things he knew, with no hesitation, that the Fuhrer would reject out of hand. He played a very fine balancing act, always managing to keep the two sides from reaching an agreement. Further, it shows that Franco was considering entry into the war quite seriously, and only the lack of a solid diplomatic agreement kept the Spanish out of the fray.

I'll share this gent's name with you the next time I speak to Lorne (will also get the book/author). In the mean time:

Bowen also notes, agreeing with historians like Paul Preston and Norman Goda, that the possibility of Spain's entry into the war on the side of the Axis was not as unlikely as some other writers have indicated. For example, Raymond Proctor, writing in 1974, took the line that Franco simply planned to obfuscate, procrastinate, and avoid joining Hitler. Bowen suggests otherwise.

"More recent scholarship argues that Spain's neutrality was not the product of clever maneuvering by dictator Francisco Franco, but of mistakes and insensitive negotiations by Nazi Germany."

Coming across this (by an unrelated coincidence) urged me to post, as it brought sharply to mind the book that I mentioned, and the subsequent conversation we had.

[Karri]

Regarding the German industry, what would be the benefits? As far as I know, the Germans got more from SU fro normal trade, than when they started their occupation policy. Furthermore, the german industry didn't kick to the total war gear until 1943(I think). How would early victory affect that?

[Veers]

Regarding the German industry, what would be the benefits? As far as I know, the Germans got more from SU fro normal trade, than when they started their occupation policy. Furthermore, the german industry didn't kick to the total war gear until 1943(I think). How would early victory affect that?
After a defeat of the SU, their industry would prolly start to demobilize.