Where would Hitler stop his advance?

[BigDuke66]

I'm currently modifying a scenario which has an alternative timeline, basically Hitler did not declare war to US and the war in the east ran much better.
Now I would like to hear where Hilter would have stopped his advance, at the Volga, Ural Mountains or where?

[Dan Neely]

assuming that the reds weren't able to stop the Germans I assume that they'd go far enough into(past?) the urals to capture the factories that were evacuated from father west. If the Russians completely collapsed, would the japanese invade siberia and meet the germans halfway, or would they simply strip the border to use the troops elsewhere?

[Case]

The goal of Barbarossa was to conquer everything up to the line Archangel-Astrakhan. After this line was reached the Germans planned on digging in and starting their thousand year reich, and only using occasional raids to keep the remaining Russians quiet.

[BigDuke66]

Thanks.
Archangel-Astrakhan is also what my sources say.

[Mark Stevens]

A post-WWII Eastern Campaign might make for an interesting scenario. The Germans, with a mixture of practical strategy and quasi-racial theories about what the Teutonic Knights had done in the Baltic in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, planned to administer the major cities and rail networks, and send German colonists to run the countryside on semi-feudal lines, with the native population as the serfs, deliberately left ill-educated and with very limited medical and other facilities. The colonies would be capable of limited self-defence, but the cities would contain strong mobile forces and air bases for expeditions when the natives got too unruly, or to handle incursions from the unsubdued areas of the USSR across the Urals.

Judging by what little of this the Germans managed to implement in the areas that came under their control, this would have meant the colonists, plus various native auxiliary formations, fighting a near-constant partisan war, with the threat of a revamped USSR across the Urals sending mechanised expeditions into the conquered area on a regular basis, and guerillas to arm and train the local insurgents.

Too speculative for me, but perhaps of interest to alternative history buffs.

[Ben Turner]

Originally posted by BigDuke66
I'm currently modifying a scenario which has an alternative timeline, basically Hitler did not declare war to US and the war in the east ran much better.
Now I would like to hear where Hilter would have stopped his advance, at the Volga, Ural Mountains or where?

It's difficult to calculate what effect the US had had on the war in Russia by 6th Armee's surrender (after which I figure the Germans could not win, even if they were able to fight for much longer). Obviously, actual American armed forces had a minimal effect, they only came into action for the first time just as 6th Armee's fate was beginning to be sealed, and it's doubtful if this affected the Stalingrad battle at all.

What needs to be considered however is lend-lease aid. Now, the Russians didn't receive a great deal of armaments from the Americans until 1943 onwards- and what they were receiving had been flowing since before the American entry into the war. The main effect of lend-lease aid on the Russian war effort prior to 1943 was in non-combat materials. By Stalingrad, the vast majority of Russian communications equipment was either American on made from American components. A huge portion of the Soviet rolling stock had come over from Russia. Finally, there's that famous shot of US Spam arriving in Leningrad. All these goods, whilst not having a very serious direct impact on the fighting strength of the Red Army, were vital, and the availability of them by lend lease meant that Russian industry could do what it was doing by 1942- focussing almost entirely on war material. Without US lend-lease, you would not ever see Russia producing 1000 T-34s a month.

The crucial question, then, is whether the US would have been quite so generous with their aid to Russia if they had no common enemy. IMHO, the lack of a German declaration of war on America would not change the amount of lend-lease aid. It would have a serious impact on the course of the war, of course, probably seeing Germany surviving at least 6 months longer, but I don't think this alone gives German victory, in the East or anywhere else.

Of course, you could have some other hypothetical, potentially one where the US is isolationist and anti-Communist (ie, no Roosevelt), and set that as the backdrop to your Lebensraum scenario. I've read some stuff about German plans for Russia... morbidly fascinating.

[BigDuke66]

@Ben
Take a look at my alternative timline.
By now it's not complete, especially the impact(if there is any) of the US not fighting actively against the Submarines has not included, also 1944 seeing the end of the war is still a bit unclear.

Any comment is welcome.



Nazi Europe


1941 Axis forces don't turn south to encircle Russian troops near Kiev. Axis seizes Moscow, Leningrad and Murmansk. With Murmansk gone the western support has to use alternative rout over Persia.
Russia and Japan reach a new low point in there diplomatic relationship, Russia can only deploy a small amount of Far East troop to Europe.
Axis don't declare war to the USA.

1942 Axis & Finish troops clear the Kola peninsula with this Archangelsk is also eliminated as port for western support delivery's.
Axis forces seize Stalingrad, and the Caucasus Oil fields and set up a blocking line at the Russian-Iranian border to hold of the British troops. The rest of Army Group South is redirected to the Volga. Russian winter offensive is smashed. In the north and the middle German troops advance slowly.
A coup by Soviet Military leaders destitute Stalin, who is assassinated.

1943 In Finland Russian troops are finally thrown back and withdraw behind the Volga because of there threatened supply lines that run between Lake Onega und the White Sea.
This year the middle and the south are the major focal points of war. For the last time the Axis masses all its military resources A Major offensive starts with AGC attacking from Moscow to Kazan and AGS attacking from Stalingrad to Samara. With one flank of the advancing forces always covered my the mighty Volga, AGC & AGS can concentrate on speed to meet in the Volga arc. As the Russian side finally discover the German plan it's to late, the troops can't withdraw fast enough and as the gross of the Russian units try to cross the Volga between Kazan and Samara the Germans are already there. Most Russian equipment is destroyed and many soldiers walk into POW camps.
The Front know reaches from the White sea south over many rivers and lakes to Rybinsk from that point it follows the Volga till she flows into the Caspian sea. The Luftwaffe preppears for it's final job.
For Africa the reach of the final front comes to late, with Vichy only showing a symbolic resistance against Operation Torch Rommel has to withdraw and is finally pushed out of Africa

1944 The Luftwaffe draws all its Bombers in the Volga arc together and starts an air campaign to destroy Russia's last industrial resources behind the Ural.
…???

1945 The German Reich recovers slowly from the war. The Atlantik Wall
that proved to be useful is finished and now the whole cost from the
Spanish border to the northern regions of Norway are fortified. New
modern weapons system replace the old ones and the size of the
Wehrmacht slowly shrinks as more and more men are dismissed or replace
by new equipment. Development of intercontinental missiles and mass
destruction weapons continues because Hitler is impressed by the
result of missiles on the UK and because of the chance to deal with
the US(the damned weapon provider to UK & Russia) if it would be
necessary in the future. Spain and Turkey join the Axis.
Atomic Bomb development was slow because of Japan as only threat to
the US and is still in development and not ready for use against
Japans mainland. But because of US concentration on Japan and also UKs
concentration after the war in Europe has ended, the war against Japan
ends with Japan bombed to ruins.

1946 The last ethnic minorities are killed. Axis minor Allies also
start improving there Army as they get equipment that Germany doesn't
need anymore. Slowly US troops flow into Europe to be sure Hitler does
not break peace with UK. More and more evidences of Hitlers missile and
atomic bomb development arise.

1947 UN proclaims a resolution that Germany should allow UN observers
to view places like Auschwitz and to view the places in the east where
the resettled minor ethnic groups life. Hitler the ruler of the great
German Reich doesn't think he has to explain anything and ignores
the UN resolution. The world seas still ruled by the US and UK navy
are blocked for every trade with Nazi Europe. A Small sea battle
occurs in the Gulf of Biscaya between German and UN ships, both sides
give the other side the fault for it. A British passenger plane flying
to Sweden is destroyed over the North sea. The cold war is getting
hotter.

1948 By 1948 UN and Germany are quite fed up with each other because
of more and more minor "accidents" that happened in the last year and
the US are very afraid of Hitlers missile and atomic bomb development
and what Hitler would do in case of war. At the day of the 15
anniversary of Hitlers takeover, 2 old German science(one involve in
the ICBM project the other involve in the Atomic bomb project) who
know the power of each others project and the power these projects
will have if they are fnished and combined,flee to Sweden into the US
embassy, within 24 hours they are in the US and are interrogate by US
military. They confirmed many rumors about Auschwitz, missiles and the
atomic bomb. 24 hours later the UN proclaims another resolution that
has the target to destroy Nazi Europe as long as the rest of the
world has still a chance to do it. The World is at War again!

[Ben Turner]

Originally posted by BigDuke66
[B]1941 Axis forces don't turn south to encircle Russian troops near Kiev. Axis seizes Moscow, Leningrad and Murmansk. With Murmansk gone the western support has to use alternative rout over Persia.

IIRC this was the primary route anyway. The losses of ships sailing to Murmask were appallingly heavy and so totally impractical for supplying food. An important question is how much the Russians can bleed the Germans at Moscow and Leningrad.

Russia and Japan reach a new low point in there diplomatic relationship, Russia can only deploy a small amount of Far East troop to Europe.

This is a fairly heavy blow to the Russians, I think. The Far East Front was much higher quality than the Russian army in the West, and was desperately needed to stem the tide in Europe. Note however that this would encourage an American declaration of war on Germany- which would be very likely anyway, especially once they start rolling up the Japanese in the Pacific.

Axis forces seize Stalingrad, and the Caucasus Oil fields and set up a blocking line at the Russian-Iranian border to hold of the British troops. The rest of Army Group South is redirected to the Volga. Russian winter offensive is smashed. In the north and the middle German troops advance slowly.

With the emphasis more Northerly in 1941 I would think that a greater-than-historical Southerly advance in 1942 is unlikely. The Germans will of course be able to hold Stalingrad- but they won't be able to get any further this year.

For the last time the Axis masses all its military resources

Remember, no Stalingrad means no Total-War economy.

1944 The Luftwaffe draws all its Bombers in the Volga arc together and starts an air campaign to destroy Russia's last industrial resources behind the Ural.
…???

No. Germany wasn't able to do serious damage to British industry this way- and it was much more concentrated in cities. Further, the Germans had moved away from a strategic bombing force as the war progressed.

and also UKs concentration after the war in Europe has ended,

The UK wouldn't stop fighting until Germany was back to her pre-war frontiers. This was the basic war aim until we decided to demand unconditional surrender. The reality is that Germany really can't hurt Britain very much without invading, and invasion would be doomed to failure unless they spent two or more years preparing.

1947 UN proclaims a resolution

I sincerely doubt there'd be a UN if Germany wasn't defeated. Furthermore, a lot of the ideas behind the UN came out of what was discussed at the Nuremberg trials.

It's quite possible to engineer the kind of war you want. But I don't think you can have this break in the middle. You need a very understand US not to go to war with Germany, not just in 1941 but for the following years with increasingly unpleasant German actions.

[BigDuke66]

Good points very good points. Rethinking a lot of my story now, here is 1941:

1941 Axis forces don't turn south to encircle Russian troops near Kiev, instead the Army Group South manages to make some smaller Couldrons and wipes out a lot of Kievs along the Denepr, with the funnel to Kiev getting tighter and tighter the defenders final try to escape to the east and take heavy losses. In an desperate attempt Stalin orders everything no matter of it's use to defend Moscow, the rest of the front has to handle the situation with minor replacements. Under heavy losses Germany can conquer Moscow and smashes a large amount of the Russian Army in near there capital city.
Incoming Siberian troops arrive to late and there small offensive to reconquer Moscow is stopped by the Wehrmacht.
Leningrad and Murmansk share Moscows faith are conquered too.
With Leningrad gone the Russian Fleet makes an desperate attempt to reach the Atlantic but both the Marine & Luftwaffe are prepared for this and smash most of the Russian ships the rest runs for Swedish harbours and is out of action for the rest of the war
Hitler doesn't declare war to the USA.
With the heavy losses the Russian side had to take in the Battle for Moscow the Major Russian winter offensive is canceled.
The Front reaches from Lake Ladoga down the River Volckov to Lake Ilmen from there to the River Volga and along it to Kimry and in a small arc around Moscow to Tula from ther to Orel -.Kursk - Karkov - Stalino and finally Tangarog.


Any comments are welcome.

[Marko]

Certainly thought provoking.

[Ben Turner]

Originally posted by BigDuke66
1941 Under heavy losses Germany can conquer Moscow and smashes a large amount of the Russian Army in near there capital city.

It doesn't take a huge amount of imagination to concoct an alternate history whereby the Germas take Moscow. I've heard that the Germans suffered from the misconception that the Russian army was beaten- that the Kiev pocket was all that was left of the Russian ability to resist. Give the Germans a more determined approach to the prosecution of the War in the East- perhaps a higher opinion of the Russian army- and they can reach Moscow without much stretch of the imagination. Higher losses, though.

[Major Banned]

Originally posted by Ben Turner


It doesn't take a huge amount of imagination to concoct an alternate history whereby the Germas take Moscow. I've heard that the Germans suffered from the misconception that the Russian army was beaten- that the Kiev pocket was all that was left of the Russian ability to resist. Give the Germans a more determined approach to the prosecution of the War in the East- perhaps a higher opinion of the Russian army- and they can reach Moscow without much stretch of the imagination. Higher losses, though.

Also the other misconception is that the Germans would have won the German-Russo Conflict if they would have seized Moscow. Ask Napoleon about the effects on the Russians after taking Moscow.
Also the majority of Lend-Lease from America to Russia came in from Vladivostok, so the loss of Murmansk and Archangel would have been of no concequence to the Soviet war effort. Now if Hitler could have talked Japan into declaring war on the Soviet Union in 41 like he wanted, then it could have been a different story.

[Ben Turner]

Originally posted by Major Catastrophe


Also the other misconception is that the Germans would have won the German-Russo Conflict if they would have seized Moscow. Ask Napoleon about the effects on the Russians after taking Moscow.

Napoleon's strategic doctrine was to strike at the enemy capital where he would be forced to fight a decisive battle, which he would then lose. His army would then lack cohesion, be unable to resist, and Napoleon could force a surrender. Unfortunately for Napoleon, the capital of Russia in 1812 was St. Petersburg.

Also the majority of Lend-Lease from America to Russia came in from Vladivostok, so the loss of Murmansk and Archangel would have been of no concequence to the Soviet war effort. Now if Hitler could have talked Japan into declaring war on the Soviet Union in 41 like he wanted, then it could have been a different story.

Perhaps- but only in terms of the Far East Front not being able to redeploy to Europe. The Russians had trounced the Japanese in Manchuria in 1939- there's no reason to think they would have any less success in 1941. Japanese tactics and doctrine simply do not work against determined opposition in the open. As it was, the Japanese probably could have happily interdicted the lend-lease shipments to Russia without actually going to war with them. It's not as if they were Russian ships. But then again the Japanese would probably be less successful at this than the Germans had been in the Atlantic.