Digger vs. Heinz57

[Heinz57]

Battle Plan:

First, Don Front is gonna get mad, then its gonna get angry and when it gets angry it gets mean and when it gets mean, its gonna fight, because...well, because...and because the Germans are still sittin' in our once fair city of Stalingrad.

Second, First, Second and Third...Guards Armies...and Sixth Army is gonna jump in the freezing river...naked...and NKVD political advisors are gonna tell them that there's a hot tub over on the Italian and Romanian Side...and whoever gets there first, gets free vodka and a night with Natasha, well armed of course, and in the company of a full NKVD Division, but still...marvelous company.

Third, no, Fifth Tank Army will overhear that thing about Natasha and get jealous, broker a deal with unnamed Western Capitalists and establish a web site devoted to Natasha, but first they need a place to put the server...Rostov.

Finally, SW Front is looking for beach front property in California, but as they have no sea transport, the best they can afford is a small hut overlooking the Black Sea There, they will meet up with their friends from Fifth Tank Army and set up a concession stand to sell big, tall drinks with little umbrellas in them -- to celebrate their victory over the Romanians...and the new web site featuring Natasha with her new babushka ordered specially from Siberian Gulag #4,932,174.

This then...is the plan. A plan unlike any other plan. A plan so bold, so daring, that it is guaranteed to probably not work quite as well as envisioned.

For the BABUSHKA!

[Heinz57]

Grant (Digger) and I have agreed to take the Deployment + 2 TO route.
Will keep TO's confidential until after they become "established fact"...though most know what I will "probably" choose.

[CyberRanger]

Grant (Digger) and I have agreed to take the Deployment + 2 TO route.
Will keep TO's confidential until after they become "established fact"...though most know what I will "probably" choose.

Curious why you agreed to this when you voted that the "best" Soviet game for success is the historical option?

[laszlo.nemedi]

Curious why you agreed to this when you voted that the "best" Soviet game for success is the historical option?
Maybe he is a double agent, or that is the surprise factor for the German (they will be surprised how many units they get up front... :nuts:

[Heinz57]

I'm not a spy...I'm schizophrenic.

No, I'm not!

My curiosity was piqued and engaged to look closer at the overall situation....one 500 km front and one 150 km encirclement. Nearly 40% of our starting force is limited to the 150 km encirclement. 44th Army would open up another 60 km front. The Axis have roughly 600 units in their total OOB, incl 1st PzA, of which nearly a third (186) do not reconstitute, of these 138 are in the pocket.

For 1st PzA, we automatically get 44th Army arriving in a safe zone in good supply, with army support (limited support to all units with a tan background), 35 km from Rostov, PLUS 1 TO.

For 19th PzD, it is only a question of whether we want to face it "now or later", either way it will show. I think I overlooked that previously. The only real bonus is that Axis gets to maneuver the Italian Army, much of which has a proficiency of 20%. Alternatively, they can take Thunderclap -- comprised of forces already "there" - but formed into fewer, though larger and better units. Both of these Axis TO's are of marginal consequence, giving only additional flexibility to the employment of units that already are, or will be present.

IMO, Little Saturn is the weakest of the Soviet TO's - 105, 110, 105, 101 shock though significant is not particularly overwhelming. There are numerous scenarios where there are 110, 120, 130+ shock and even in these, a good defense can withstand a considerable amount of pounding even in the face of multiple tactical rounds.

Essentially it comes down to whether 1st PzA is equal to or greater than 44th Army + Don Reinforcements + Don Front being able to operate outside the pocket from the beginning. This is not an easy question to answer. In my final estimation, I don't think 1st PzA is the equal.

We shall see. :D

[CyberRanger]

I'm not a spy...

Essentially it comes down to whether 1st PzA is equal to or greater than 44th Army + Don Reinforcements + Don Front being able to operate outside the pocket from the beginning. This is not an easy question to answer. In my final estimation, I don't think 1st PzA is the equal.

We shall see. :DI gotta say, you about have me convinced to do the 2 non-deployment TO route also.

What are your plans around Stalingrad? Are you going to immediately start moving troops from the DON Front beyond the **** boundary? Do you hope to prevent the relief effort from penetrating the **** boundary?

Please tell more! Your analysis is awesome!

[Heinz57]

I gotta say, you about have me convinced to do the 2 non-deployment TO route also.

What are your plans around Stalingrad? Are you going to immediately start moving troops from the DON Front beyond the **** boundary? Do you hope to prevent the relief effort from penetrating the **** boundary?


Thank you, Commander!

Here's the rough idea -- might deviate slightly, but only slightly:

1. Immediately pull out the following from north of the pocket:
a. 65A Mortar (total 300 tubes @70% prof.);
b. all assets of the 66 Army HQ except the Ski Bn. 2 Eng Bde, 240 tubes rocket artillery, plus some armor and other long range good prof. artillery;
c. all assets of 24 Army HQ. 2 Eng Bde, 2 Tank Reg (KV's), 1 Tank Bde
d. all of 24 Tank Corp;
e. all armor & eng assets of 65 Army HQ. (1 Eng Bde, 2 Tank Bde, 2 Tank Reg (KV's);
f. 24A Gds Arty (180 tubes @ 70% prof).

This still leaves 17 Infantry Div. supported by 17 low prof. but long range Arty Reg., plus a few Bn's extra along a 50 km (10 hex) front. May very well extend this to 12 hexes by keeping one engineer bde behind to put forces on the extreme NW of the pocket.

All extracted assets will deploy toward the Myshkova River. I think they will be meaningful there regardless of 57th PzK's deployment. If that area has already been overrun, they will take up positions astride the base and flank of the relief effort.

Offensive efforts into the pocket will initially focus on the vicinities of Yelchi and Buburkin. This will gradually extend along the entire pocket with the goal of taking 2-3 hexes per turn. Probes (bn level) need to be conducted along the entire front as a means of keeping his artillery drained. We have the luxury of being able to rotate a few arty regiments in/out of support.

I don't feel it is a strategic imperative to Stop the relief effort, only insure that it doesn't last long enough or grow large enough to be relevant. Most of Sixth Army (inf, arty & HQ's) simply does not have the movement allowance to get very far, especially in as yet "unconverted" territory. More on this separately, suffice that the more overextended his lines appear, the less likely I am to fight hard in preventing the linkup. Instead, attention will focus upon cutting off the relief effort itself.

Have some more notes to post in a bit...

[Heinz57]

An attempt to link up with, extract, or reinforce Stalingrad contemplates the following:


I. 57th PzK North: This option does not contemplate a relief of Stalingrad, but the encirclement of 5th Tank Army in conjunction with 11 PzD near Bolshin.

II. 57th PzK Center:
a. 8 hex penetration crossing 3 rivers.
b. 4 hex frontage optimal
c. 6 hex long right flank along super river.
d. 9 hex long left flank.
e. Immediate opposition: 1st & 4th Tank Corps, 3rd Gds Cav Corps, 4th Mech Corps, elements of 5th Shock Army, and assorted auxiliaries.

III. 57th PzK South:
a. 16 hex penetration crossing 3-4 rivers.
b. 5 hex front optimal (road through Genarlov), but very easy to get "trapped" into pressing a 10 hex front (Shestakov)
c. left flank secure, frees up 4 understrength 45% prof. Romanian Infantry Divisions.
d. 16 hex long right flank
e. Immediate opposition: 51st Army with 4th Cav Corps 4th & 13th Mech Corps, elements of 5th Shock Army and 57th Army (DON).

57th PzK South. Historically, the Soviets stopped the effort along the Myshkova River, meaning an Axis penetration of 50 kilometers (10 hexes).

Axis needs, at minimum, a 3 hex wide corridor for the extraction of Sixth Army to be meaningful. It needs a good road as most units of Sixth Army have a low movement allowance. I would also assert that it really needs the shortest distance between two points, to boot, or risk overextension. The best extraction effort would contemplate 57th Center and Thunderclap over the course of no more than 4-5 turns -- "Get in and get out". This would involve 2-3 turns to link up and 2 turns to get what can get out well on their way to getting out with the balance serving as rear guards.

This can be accomplished in tests on a fairly consistent basis. Thunderclap and elements of 57th PzK can meet at Kalach in one turn, have a 3-4 hex corridor cleared the next and have numerous elements of Sixth Army on their way out on Turn 4. Avoid engaging additional elements from any formation to oppose the relief effort directly. They will have concentration of force and very substantial, good, long-range artillery support.

Instead, concentrate your response upon the base of the operation:

1. On the right flank, consider the vicinity of Krasnoarsky and Nitsky Chirskaya opposite the river of 51st Army as a potential vulnerable area regardless of what 306 Infantry and 15 LFD (south of this area) are doing. If they are engaging to support the offensive by hitting 4th Cav Corps -- Hit them back. Otherwise, across the river are 4 understrength Romanian Infantry Divisions (under supply and with 45% prof.).

2. On the left flank, consider engaging in the direction of Oblivskaya against 8 LFD, assorted Romanian and Security units. Axis reserves in the vicinity only involve only 17th PzD, with a chance that it, too, may have been committed to assist in the relief effort, or perhaps diverted elsewhere. If they pull from units in the north opposing 3r Gds Army...so much the better, though odds would be much lower in cutting off the base of the relief effort by 5th TA and 51st A.

3. It will be immediately apparent upon beginning of Soviet T2 if the Axis have chosen 57th Center. It may or may not be apparent if they've chosen Thunderclap - it will show in the news, but this TO can be taken after T1. If it is apparent that 57th Center and Thunderclap have been chosen, and you've selected Don Front outside the pocket, consider pulling 21st Army and what remains of 4th Tank Corps and 3rd Gd Cav Corps back behind the river and into supporting positions for the flank of 5th Tank Army, temporarily. If the Axis decide to go too wild, it can led to encirclements...but once 3rd Gds Army is online, 1st Gds Mech Corps should be able to relieve these forces. Concurrently, consider pulling armor, mech and rocket artillery forces from north of the pocket to rendezvous near the Myshkova River for eventual support of 51st Army's offensive. The Axis forces in these areas will put up a reasonably good fight but not indefinitely, so best not to expect magic until T4-6 when the Axis will look with great consternation upon the situation along the entire front.

Overall use discretion, this concerns much of my strategy so may not fit into other plans conveniently. Hopefully it outlines some considerations, suffice that I consider 57th PzK Center + Thunderclap to be the most threatening combination of TO's for us (relative to Stalingrad). Certainly wherever 57th PzK shows up, the situation will be sbleak for a while in that particular area. The advantage of this combo is that it will likely lead to a faster collapse of what remains within the pocket, a more expedient capture of Stalingrad minus the HQ's, and equally important, the ability to get Don Front elsewhere, in force.

I don't think the historical, 57th PzK South represents quite nearly the same degree of threat.

[Foggy]

Excellent thinking - glad you're on our side :D

[Heinz57]

And so it begins...file attached, comments separate...

[laszlo.nemedi]

And so it begins...file attached, comments separate...

Ooops. He made the same breakthrough than MikeJ, and I don't see what did you do to avoid it...

(You chose Don release? as your don front moved out of the *** boundary?)

[Heinz57]

TO's:

57th PzK North, 1st PzA, 19th PzD early
2nd Gds Army North, Don Front outside pocket, Reinforcements elsewhere

Synopsis of Operations:

Axis: This follows pretty much in the pattern of MikeJ's offensive, w/o the same degree of penetration. 57 PzK attacks into Petrovka for a 25 km advance along a 25 km front. 11 PzD, 336 ID, 7 LFD, and assorted others comprise southern prong making marginal advance, except a 15-20km penetration into Ostrov with assistance of Brandenbergers. 306 ID and 15 LFD rupture 4th Cav Corps, lead elements approaching the Aksay River. Sixth Army unleashes an inordinate amount of Hell upon Don Front -- very heavy casualties. And then there's the Red Air...Farce.

Soviet: Pulled 26 Tank Corps of 5th Tank Army NE to try to cover the eastern flank. Pulled the core componets of 5th Tank Army HQ NW to cover the east flank of 3rd Gds Army until it can move. Additional forces en route. Pretty much maintained the rest of 5th TA's perimeter to Ostrov. Though 5th TA is still threatened, I don't anticipate it being fully encircled.

Pulled the majority of 65A HQ's plus Rocket Arty west across the river. Pulled majority of 24A HQ + Rocket Arty south. Don Front is not in very good shape...got the sense that Axis is attacking with 1/3rds....so, I pretty much did the same across the entire front. Not quite the same impact, but then units still moving to engage and yet to be released. Despite the gravity of the situation, 57A, 65A, 66A and 24A manage to free up significant components for redeployment (W and S). 4th and 13th Mech Corps take up positions along the Myshkova.

At least some elements of 6A, 1st GdA, 2nd GdA and 3 GdA initiated attacks against the nearest Axis units, making a favorable impression in most engagements.

I forgot to keep a tally of combat results for the first tac round, suffice that the turn allowed for 3 tac rounds @ Min. Loss and 1 tac round @ Ignore Loss.

Of what I did count, roughly 450 assorted rifle squads in Axis casualties (didn't count some like recon rifle, smg variants, engineers, etc., only Rifle, Light Rifle, Rifle AT, Heavy Rifle AT, etc.)

Lost quite a few units to evap in the counterattack. But then...so did the Axis. One unknown Stg Bn.; 64 PzG Reg., 26 Mot Reg., 29th Mot Reg., 108 Mot Reg., 669 and 178 Inf Reg, and two odd Inf Bn.

This was a diversion from my plan to wait for intensive attacks when in good supply. Waiting for that to happen would be akin to asking for quick death in these conditions. At the rate things are going Don Front and Sixth Army should fight each other to mutual annhilation by T20. Difference is Don Front reconstitutes.

Just beginning...but, my feeling for the turn is pretty good, if just for managing 4 tac rounds. 5th Tank Army and South Front are in pretty good order; Don Front, as it turns out is my main worry...but only for having extracted mobile assets for use elsewhere. I don't think he intends for any kind of relief into the pocket; a breakout perhaps - but seems more intent on not going down without taking a lot of Don with him.

[laszlo.nemedi]

Good, pulling out was necessery to avoid encirclement!
Only one remark: one or two small unit (divided) dug in ignore loss in the way of the attacking force, helps to slow them down (and expend one or more tac round of his, if you place them in an already entrenched hex)...
(It seems MikeJ spread his idea among the others...)


Let's hope the best!

[Heinz57]

Good, pulling out was necessery to avoid encirclement!
Only one remark: one or two small unit (divided) dug in ignore loss in the way of the attacking force, helps to slow them down (and expend one or more tac round of his, if you place them in an already entrenched hex)...
(It seems MikeJ spread his idea among the others...)


Let's hope the best!

Thanks Laszlo!

You're right...that is definitely one thing I should have done and easily could have with 5 TA. Will see what happens...this will be the war of the ants. Marching...One by one...Hurrah...Hurrah...

I heard he evap'd 22 of my units with ant attacks.

[Heinz57]

Axis offensive of 57th PzK to the north and 11th PzD leading the attack from the south has nearly encircled about 60% of 5th Tank Army as of end of T4. 11th PzD appears to be attempting to meet remnants of Sixth Army at least half way, but both have yet to reach Kalach. Though Don Front has taken a very severe pounding over the past 3 turns (up to 22 Brigades/Divisions reported as destroyed, plus what has evap'd in counterattacks), at least 20 Regiments and a few odd battalions from Sixth Army are also gone from the field.

Elements of 16th MotD are linking up with 306 ID and 15 LFD, this prong of the Axis offensive effectively stalled at the Aksay R. An AA and Mot. Inf Reg overextended their penetration to just south of the Myshkova only to be encircled and eliminated by elements of 4th and 13th Mech Corps. 28 Army opened with a 25 km penetration through 8th Rom CavD. Portions of 1st PzA have been spotted heading east, but elude observation, so this penetration may be shortlived. If it sticks 8th Cav is in serious trouble.

In the North, 3rd Guards Army is having the greatest difficulty thus far in tackling Axis positions in the vicinity of Chern. 1st and 2nd Guards Armies along with 6th Army are making reasonable headway against the Italian-German positions. Within the next few turns, with any luck, 2nd Guards pushing south should be instrumental in relieving 3rd Guards of some of the resistance being offered by 1st Rom. Inf Corps, 294 and 304 ID.

T4 resulted in two tac rounds at min losses and one tac round at ignore losses. Average casualties inflicted per turn exceed 600 assorted rifle/assault squads, although at least half of these are likely return to Axis replacement pool.

[laszlo.nemedi]

You have many units around the Stalingrad pocket why don't you move them to the threated area, move them (the remaining ones should be dig in ignore losses of course...)

[Heinz57]

All or most of the units not dug in were attacking. He doesn't appear to be faring nearly as well without shock, at least in T4. Biggest question at this point is how he fares in T5 and how aggressive he plays, before altering plans any further.

I've freed up as much as I can from Don Front, but main focus for the balance of Don is to finish off the pocket as quickly as possible. Estimate that he's down to about 2/3rds of his front line units within the pocket and apparently trying to retain the starting perimeter. Will see what happens, he'll probably get 2 corps worth of 5th Tank Army.

[Heinz57]

T6 Comments to follow...

[laszlo.nemedi]

Situation seems OK, nice job!

[Heinz57]

Thanks Laszlo!

In T5, Axis succeeded in establishing a link between 11th PzD and Sixth Army. 5 Tank Army could do little to prevent it, and Don Front units near Kalach had taken the most severe of poundings previously. Observation over the past turns show all Corps HQ and a very substantial portion of his artillery converging towards Kalach. Though certainly not the best of developments, it is not particularly catastrophic. More resources would be needed than are readily available to close the pocket and would serve only as a diversion from the primary offensives. My estimation is that 45-50% of his OOB is in the center and pocket. Defensive forces facing 57th PzK are likely not adequate to contain it.

Confirmed kills within Sixth Army include 8 Mot. Inf. Reg., 1 PzG Reg., 5 Eng (Bn/Reg), 3 PzJ Bn, 2 Stug Bn, 2 Rec Bn, 1 AA Bn, and 10 Inf. Regiments. Questions exist regarding 8 other regiments, suffice that Axis offensive activity against any but the corridor through Kalach has diminished considerably since T4.

These are the questions

a) of what overall tactical or strategic purpose is served by an active & aggressive Axis offensive beyond what is necessary to either relieve Stalingrad, or secure it through end of game?
b) and/or breaking through across the Don River north of Stalingrad?

I've reached some conclusions, but open to hearing other thoughts.

[laszlo.nemedi]

Good question!

It was always the question what is the aim of the German side.
My thought is the forces preservation, so relieving the 6th army is good only to preserve them other way they will die definitly.

Attack elsewhere (in the north, was good because the soviet supply points are close to the frontline. (MikeJ has an another in mind, he believes the best defense is the active attack, as I spoke to him before.)

[Southern Dandy]

a) of what overall tactical or strategic purpose is served by an active & aggressive Axis offensive beyond what is necessary to either relieve Stalingrad, or secure it through end of game?
b) and/or breaking through across the Don River north of Stalingrad?

I've reached some conclusions, but open to hearing other thoughts.

Since you solicited opinions, here's mine....

(a) Given that the Soviet player is side 2 in this scenario, the Axis player remaining active, hitting where he can against Soviet forces, allows him to put Soviet units into re-org or routed status. The resultant loss of MPs from those units could also limit the ability to get multiple combat rounds due to failed proficiency checks during the turn. In doing so, this allows the Axis player some measure of force preservation, at least in theory.

(b)Laszlo hit it on the head with his observation regarding supply point location, I'm guessing. Plus, pushing the Soviet side that far back early gives the Axis player that much more room, plus the super-river as a fall back line, to conduct a mobile defense.

Just my thoughts...

John

[Southern Dandy]

An additional thought occured to me just now as well....

An aggressive Axis player can really ratchet up the Soviet loss penalty in a hurry, as we've seen in the last week or two. Given that they're out to win big, just like we are, loss penalties are a sure way to change the margin of VPs in a rush and create a nasty cycle for the Soviet player (to make up these losses, I HAVE to take this location....suffer additional losses...now I have to push harder to take this location, repeat ad nauseum).

I'm babbling, I know....it's bedtime, I think!

John

[laszlo.nemedi]

An additional thought occured to me just now as well....

An aggressive Axis player can really ratchet up the Soviet loss penalty in a hurry, as we've seen in the last week or two. Given that they're out to win big, just like we are, loss penalties are a sure way to change the margin of VPs in a rush and create a nasty cycle for the Soviet player (to make up these losses, I HAVE to take this location....suffer additional losses...now I have to push harder to take this location, repeat ad nauseum).

I'm babbling, I know....it's bedtime, I think!

John
Good thought

[Heinz57]

Will make additional comments on Q&A's in a short bit. Just found a BIG mistake in my planning, although the kind I like. I've been thinking total Axis OOB has about 600+ units, when actuality has about 530 owing to several units having multiple listings, apparently re: TO placements. With the following and cumulative results, that should be under 490.

T7 Disposition:

Axis forces continue to press against Don Front and 5th TA NW and SW of Stalingrad. Axis continue to reinforce the center and base of operations for their ongoing offensive. Estimates continue to place 45-50% of the Axis OOB within and W of Stalingrad.

6A has stalled slightly, but remains in good order and in good supply. Axis 385th ID is the main impediment to its advance, but is gradually eroding.
1st Guards continues advances 15 km in places with 304th ID being the primary source of resistance, but also gradually withering.

2nd Guards, though in good order is quickly depleting its supply. For the most part it faces only Italian and Romanian formations, with a single fresh German infantry division apparently en route.

3rd Guards, despite being in the most difficult offensive position, is actively threatening the base of the Axis offensive. The Romanian Tank Division encircled last turn, was eliminated this turn along with 9th Rom. ID.

SW Front continues an active defense south of Shestakov with the Axis position there appearing potentially vulnerable from the SE.
28th Army continues to make cautious, but significant strides against 5th and 8th Rom. CD's, 3rd PzD and potentially one other armor or mechanized formation is in the area, so offensive activity is being played guardedly.

44th Army, despite not having arrived, appears like it will be facing one Infantry Division. Awaiting better reconnaissance, before jumping to this conclusion. I suspect, but have not definitively confirmed that he is transferring some of the LFD's into the area. Leastwise, all panzer and motorized elements of 1st PzA have been accounted for elsewhere.

Current loss ratio 9 to 17, for the first time dipping under a full 1:2 ratio. Only 780 infantry of all types were counted as casualties this turn, plus evaps, which is the first time quota of 1000+ has not been reached. This is substantially owing to only having obtained 2 tactical rounds, mitigated heavily by the destruction of nearly 90 AFV's, of which over 80 were out of supply at the beginning of this turn and the majority of which should not return to the replacement pool. Mainly (and perhaps unfortunately), these comprised the light Rom. tanks, but also a number of T34's within the Axis' southernmost Cav. Reg.

Offensive will continue as currently being applied with 28th Army to take a more defensive stance. Forces around the extremes of the Stalingrad salient will, if not involuntarily pushed be pulled back in the interest of further expanding the Axis line into worthless territory. This significantly diminishes the potential of taking Stalingrad which could result with the Axis gaining 10 VP. The advantage is that it has a good potential of getting Axis units further away from the VP areas outside the center.

With the Axis applying an active defense, and insisting on not pulling back, it is creating significant opportunities to surround and eliminate significant forces. Effort will continue to be directed toward surrounding "bite size chunks" of Axis defensive forces. When his western front collapses, my estimation is that it will crack "Big".

[Southern Dandy]

You're absolutely right....my experience playing this from the German side is that when the lines rupture, it's pretty close to impossible to repair it.

Early in my playtest game with Foggy, I was compelled to commit the bulk of 1st PzA to backstopping the Italians in the north (I'll remind you guys that this playtest version doesn't have 44th Army). While the lines up there have since held pretty steady (we're refighting Ypres, only in southeast Russia!) since, the attrition has been enough that every turn over the last 5 or 6 I'm looking for a fall back line to get some space and time...but don't have the units or mobility to pull it off gracefully enough to be a good option.

Foggy and I are into turn 22 of our game, I mentioned in the message I sent with my last turn that OKH may have reached its zenith in the scenario with my last turn.

All that Soviet artillery broke up what should have otherwise been successful attacks, and I'm running out of units to plug holes with....a couple more turns of the slow steady grind I've been facing and I'll have a real mess on my hands!

So tovarich, hang in there. It will get better, as the Germans are puny and weak, while we are tough and getting stronger!

John

[Heinz57]

You're absolutely right....my experience playing this from the German side is that when the lines rupture, it's pretty close to impossible to repair it.
Foggy and I are into turn 22 of our game, I mentioned in the message I sent with my last turn that OKH may have reached its zenith in the scenario with my last turn.

Thanks John!

Drinking more coffee and smoking more smokes, continuing to ponder this scenario. Discovering this morning my previous estimate of 600+ units in Axis OOB actually being a max of 530 or so. I agree with everyone re: what Axis "can do" -- basically make a nuisance of themselves and perhaps prevent an OV by keeping Stalingrad to T40.

In my estimation, each turn the Italians, Romanians and a handful of German Infantry, security and ostlegionen are left to themselves to "try to stop" 6A, 1GA, 2GA and 3GA, the more I LOVE Axis dispositions in the center. The better half of the Axis forces is not even able to "actively defend" against this advance. They're fighting units that have little chance of contributing to the drive for the objectives.

This can deprive the offensive forces of some replacements, but it is also inflicting casualties on the Axis. It seems senseless to me, except as an attempt to distract from and pull forces from the offensive to deal with them.

Offensives pressed solely for the sake of pressing offensives in TOAW usually don't hold up very well in the long-term.

Will see what happens next, expecting Brandenbergers to try something inane and stupid.

[Heinz57]

Axis forces continue their offensive to the NW of Stalingrad, achieving a breakthrough and threatening to reach across the Don. Conjunct with observation of an estimated two infantry divisions being transferred west in the direction of Millerovo, a pull back of elements of Don Front (E) and remnants of 5th TA (W) was in order with the hope of facilitating an overextension of the Axis perimeter.

My thinking here is "Longer Front = Thinner Line" and the further that line is from the objectives...well, so much the better. I've wracked my brain over Axis strategy, deciding that the only real threat is to "steal the initiative." In my assessment, this would require significant offensive forces to be shifted toward the threatened area. This action by the Axis has effectively taken 5th Tank Army out of offensive planning, so this has not been without success. I fail to see what further benefit can be derived from their offensive...casualties in Soviet terms are almost meaningless, 16 supply points substantially reduces chances of being cut off from supply. I can only interpret this continued action as advantageous to Soviet operations on all other fronts.

Stalingrad continues to see heavy fighting, exchanging units through evaporations pretty much 1 for 1 since the beginning. That many of these will eventually return also weighs to the Soviet advantage.

Loss of the 248th Rifle Division of 28th Army came as a significant loss, the result of chasing broken units too far and ending the previous turn isolated and overextended. Nevertheless, the rest of the army has secure flanks and has consistently gotten the better of 8th Rom. Cav, and is now bringing the fight to the 5th Rom. Cav.

Fighting near Shestakov increases in intensity with remnants of 51A, 4th and 13th Mech Corps and 3 Tank Brigades from Don Front facing off against 15 LFD, 16 Mot Div., 306 ID, and 232 Stug Bn. Too early to predict outcome of this match, except the Axis southern flank is heavily dependent upon 8th Rom. Cav.

Third Guards Army continues to have a hard go of it, while in very good order and supply, it is facing 307 ID, and the intimidating 503rd Heavy Panzer Bn., along with assorted security, flak and Romanian units. It will be getting a boost in the immediate future with the arrival of 2nd Gds Mortar Division, which should help shred the 307th making the job of tackling the armor much easier.

Second Guards Army is making slow, but steady progress against German 62nd, 294th and 304th ID and assorted Italian and Cossacks.

First Guards Army has effectively secured the initiative for the offensive with a frontal penetration of 15-20 km this turn alone, approaching to within 45-50 km of Millerovo. Of special importance is the potential to cut the rail line supporting the numerous "broken up" Italian formations and their German protectors from 298 and 305 ID. But of even greater importance is the potential of isolating two armored train units in relatively unimportant territory. Armored trains are hell to contend with and better to have them in someplace like Kantirmorovka than Millerovo or Voroshilovgrad. Terrain has been more of an impediment than anything else for 1st Gds.

6A continues to have difficulties contending with the Italians, half owing to 385 ID and the 2 armored train units, and half attributable to the terrain. 1st Guards will have to slow the rate of its advance down and contend with the Axis groups near Chertkovo and give 6A a chance to clear out some of its opposition or face overextension. Leastwise 1st Guards is running about 2 turns ahead of schedule. I hate to restrict its advance (5-10 km), but patience is a virtue for the Soviets...besides Millerovo will still be there and even if the Axis do reinforce the area, it will most likely be infantry.

44th Army should be arriving shortly, and this is one formation that definitely needs to hurry it's ass up. Most of 1st PzA is accounted for -- facing 28A, 51A or in the bulge W of Stalingrad. Observation is consistently showing nothing near Rostov...though I suspect the presence of at least one infantry division, and quite likely 5th SS when it shows will remain as the rear guard. I think also an LFD may have been railed into the area, just can't see it.

And finally, the Soviet Air Force makes its first lackluster showing...striking numerous airfields and taking heavy casualties, but finally inflicting something in return. But then, this turn was pretty sloppy...a few units not dug in, a few units not on Ignore losses, took some gambles that didn't pan out, so will continue to stick with the tried and true methods that have worked to this point.

[Southern Dandy]

Just some thoughts based on your latest .SAL--

It is not a given, but it appears that he is looking to evacuate 6th Armee and shorten the lines by abandoning the "Stalingrad" or "Volga" bulge. I base this on what he has on the east wall opposite the Volga- it looks to be a pretty weak rear-guard, though perhaps you just retreated units out of the line that I cannot see.

If he does, I suspect you'll see many of these units again up near Millerovo, as he has a disaster on his hands up there. Whether or not he realizes it is the question!

I agree with your idea of cutting the rail line (especially to the south) of the armored trains and just screening them off if any Italian infantry remain with them. If there's no other ground unit with them, I'd just bypass them and leave them sitting there...though that may lead to some silly Brandenberger stunt by your opponent.

If you don't mind my asking (I've noticed what seems to be a theme)- what was his primary route to break into the pocket? Was it through Kalach? or did he roll in from the south first?

That bridge in Kalach seems to be central to Axis thinking in several games from what I've noticed....though I'm still pondering over just how important it is to them.

Thanks in advance....and hang in there- it will get better!

John

[Heinz57]

Yes, the road through Kalach, really the best avenue all the way around. It took him several turns to do so, mainly with 11th PzD. He's definitely extracting his Corps HQ's and Paulus. I'm having to stage an incremental withdrawal in the Pascheny - Ronin area and anticipate that he'll be doing everything possible to keep Stalingrad. He's done nothing to shorten his perimeter anywhere and seems happy to extend it wherever he can. Watching this closely though.

[Heinz57]

My opponent's been busy with RL, so just completed T10 yesterday. An atrocious turn, one Minimize Loss round even taking care with MP's and cooperation levels. It happens.

As a consequence though, many units are very vulnerable - not dug in and at min. losses. Will see what happens.

He continues to hit the flanks around Stalingrad with what he can, so I've started the incremental withdrawal. This is reducing my perimeter so mobile units freed up are being deployed south. This is what I had hoped to do starting in T2, pre-empted by Axis assaults. Additional forces are being pulled from north of the pocket to the south.

Mild progress by Sov. 6A and 1st GA despite the early turn ending, possible that it may be reversed if he counterattacks.

44th Army moves beyond the safe zone, approaching to within 10 km of Rostov. Even more surprising is that there was no defense in place immediately behind the first river north of the safe zone. 11th ID and 2 Sec Regiments are confirmed in the immediate vicinity of 44A. 7th Panzer Division is also very likely to be in the area, I haven't seen it move and can't account for it elsewhere.

Anyways, if disaster strikes, it will strike in T11...