CyberRanger
11 Mar 04, 14:48
Analysis of the Axis Position by Southern Dandy
In "Wintergewitter 42"
In this document, which I pray doesn't become too lengthy, I intend to discuss the Axis side of the above-named scenario. Much of my commentary comes from my playtest experience from the Axis side. It is hoped that this unique insight into the workings of the scenario will assist the Soviet side in crushing the vaunted Heere and retaking Rostov from the western invaders.
We are all familiar to some extent or another with the story of Stalingrad in 1942 and 1943. I won't rehash it here…. there are many fine publications out there which have more detail, better illustrations, and so forth, than I could produce from my computer, especially given the time constraints faced. With that in mind, away we go….
The initial position is fairly much set. The only variable from the Axis side in this regard is deployment of LVII Panzer Korps (hereafter PzK). There are three options for this- north, central, and south (historical). Central and southern deployments make the most sense from the Axis perspective- though this assumes that the Axis player intends to make a serious effort to relieve the Stalingrad pocket.
A northern deployment would indicate (to me, at least) that the Axis player has no intent on liberating the pocket. Lead elements of LVII PzK would have about 100km (20 hexes or so) from their assembly points to the nearest units of 6th Armee. This isn't to say that such an advance is not possible, but given the length of the advance, the dangers of two exposed flanks, and ease with which Soviet forces can intervene along this route are factors that preclude such an audacious venture. It should be noted though, that a well planned and executed offensive could potentially pocket a large number of Soviet forces in the "bulge" between Sovetskaya and Surovinko, which would then create quite an interesting situation for both players. Also, this deployment makes it much easier for the Axis player to counter any offensive versus the Italian 8th Army and more specifically, the Italian 29th and 35th Corps holding the line to the northwest of where LVII PzK would be located, thus easing the defensive pressures of the Axis player somewhat.
A central deployment has the primary advantage of being closest to the pocket- 8 to 10 hexes between LVII PzK and 6th Armee. The area is also reasonably well served by a rail line, allowing additional reinforcements to flow rapidly into the area if the battle develops favorably for the Axis player. Unfortunately from the Axis perspective, the terrain is terrible for attacking. The Don River splits the obvious axis of advance neatly in half, so the Axis player is forced to decide whether to launch his relief effort from the south or north bank on the Don almost immediately. He has a small bridgehead across to the southern bank close to Nitsky Cherskaya, but it is weakly held. Add in several smaller tributaries of the Don, especially on the southern bank, and an Axis advance is problematic at best. Either choice offers flank protection thanks to the Don, but leaves the other flank wide open for the Soviet Army to exploit. Also, because of the cramped nature of this section of the front, as well as the limited road net, movement penalties pile up quickly for the Axis player, eating up his turn and limiting the striking power LVII PzK has in doing so.
Ultimately, the southern deployment is the one that makes the most sense from the German side. While LVII PzK is hampered by the need to cover roughly 80km (16 or so hexes) to reach the closest elements of 6th Armee, it offers the opportunity for several varieties of advance- broad front, or more narrowly focused ones either along the Don River (which offers excellent flank protection up to the Myshkova River, at the very least), or along the Kotelnikova-Shestakov road. It also gives the Axis player more security for his frontage south of the Don, as the only units in the area at the start of the game are a pair of Rumanian cavalry divisions and a Luftwaffe Field Division (hereafter, LFD). These forces alone would be hard pressed to stop a determined effort to take Rostov, which is a big VP prize for either side.
Also, there are some additional theater options available to the German player. These involve whether or not to have an early release of the 19th Panzer Division (hereafter, PzD), early release of 1st Panzer Army (hereafter, PzA), and whether or not to initiate Operation "Thunderclap," the breakout attempt that was never ordered historically.
The early release of 19th PzD is a mixed blessing for the Axis side. It comes with no VP cost, and it appears on turn two. It's a strong unit for striking at the Soviet positions, or to assist holding a defensive position. Unfortunately for the Axis side, it appears on the western map edge- well away from the action. Unless rail capacity for the Axis side has been increased, the Axis player won't be able to entrain the entire division at once. This means that it may take 3 or 4 turns for the division to travel from its arrival hex to wherever the Axis player wishes to employ it at something resembling full strength. In this scenario, that can be a bad thing, as the situation can change very quickly, meaning the division may show up at the wrong spot and need to travel elsewhere, or its elements may get separated and diffused across a large area. The chief benefit of this option though, for the Axis side, is that it "unfreezes" the Italian 8th Army, allowing the Axis player to dig them in further, or withdraw them from the Don River, or even to boldly attack into Soviet positions and destroy bridges across the Don River. Otherwise, without taking this option, the Italian 8th Army is in a "garrison" mode for the first 4 tuns of play.
The early release of 1st PzA is now more problematic for the Axis player. In the version I playtested, it was another "freebie"- a powerful formation that more than tilts things favorably for the Axis side. Now, the Soviet 44th Army is released with it, so at least part of 1st PzA will need to stay in the front to oppose 44th Army. Its lead elements will appear between turns 5 and 10, with additional elements appearing thereafter. This is part of the curse- the Axis player doesn't know for certain what units are arriving on what turn, which makes planning difficult. Also, these units arrive along the southern map edge in such a way that piecemeal committal of them is hard to resist. They also suffer from the low Axis rail capacity and therefore take time to arrive and assemble in strength as 19th PzD above. I'll further note that 1/2 of these units do not arrive on a rail-hex, so that they must travel along unimproved road to reach a railhead and entrain, which helps weaken various elements of the formation as a whole.
If the Axis player has chosen the above two theater options, Operation Thunderclap is considered cancelled. It will still appear in the Axis TO menu, but the scenario briefing is clear on this as an honor rule. The skinny on this option is this: It gives the Axis player a supply point in the 6th Armee pocket (not a distant one, as at Gumrak). It also gives the German player a pretty powerful striking force, a Kampfgruppe, if you will, assembled from an ad hoc collection of units inside the pocket. The downsides are as follows: this supply point lasts only 6 turns- and then all supply inside the pocket is gone, including Gumrak. Also, the Axis player loses 3 of his air units (bomber-type) that would theoretically be used to maximize air supply into the pocket. This is a double-edged sword for the Axis player- if LVII PzK has pushed close enough to the pocket; this might be enough to get the HQs out the pocket that trigger VP bonuses for the Soviet side. It should also allow other combat units break out safely. Failure to do so however, means that the pocket will collapse rapidly, starved from supply and losses will not fall back into the replacement pool for the Axis side.
It seems that now is an appropriate time to comment on some of the more general issues faced by the Axis player in this scenario.
--Reserves are few and far between! In my experiences playtesting this scenario against Foggy, what limited reserve I had was almost immediately committed early on in the game. Thus, my only reserves available for some time became the reinforcements due to appear, which is a dangerous way to play, for pretty obvious reasons.
--Reinforcements have a long way to travel. I've touched on this in my discussion of the theater options above. I'll further note that there are other scheduled reinforcements for the German side, and these compound the Axis player's troubles in prioritizing movement towards the front. Arrivals in the first 10 turns include, 385th Infantry Division (hereafter, ID) on turn 3, 27th PzD on turn 4, 387th ID and 3rd Mountain Division on turn 7. The next significant reinforcements do not arrive until turn 25 (26th ID), though there are some minor battalion and artillery units that show up between turns 18-21. Turns 28-30 see the arrival of 257th PanzerLehr, turns 30 and 31 see the arrival of the 335th ID, and finally, on turn 40, 302nd ID arrives.
--Difficulty in maintaining air superiority. The air battle in this scenario is touch and go the entire game. It favors the Axis side in qualitative terms, and from the perspective of being side one in this scenario. Many Axis air units start the game well to the rear, which helps the Soviet side a little bit. Expect frequent airfield attacks!
--Traffic control is a nightmare from the Axis view. Limited road and rail network lead to stacking issues, especially early in the game when the first significant wave of Axis reinforcements arrive. These issues tend to eat away at the Axis player's ability to maximize his combat rounds at a vital juncture in the game.
--Cooperation issues between Axis units- believe or not, most of the Axis units, even German army ones, have limited cooperation at best. This makes the German efforts sloppier than they otherwise might be, and handicaps the Axis player into trying to remember if 19th PzD and 27th PzD are fully cooperative or not, for example.
--Supply point at Zimovinki disappears after turn 12 if early release of 1st PzA is chosen, turn 30 if not. While there are supply units on the Axis side to help ameriolate this problem, supply issues for the Axis side become difficult south of the Don River- the next closest supply point is over 100km away, north of the Don.
This document just wouldn't be complete without some discussion of the various forces employed by the Axis in this scenario. There are a variety of nationalities and ethnicities represented on the Axis side. Some perform very well; others just eat supply and occupy space.
Italian forces in this scenario should be the Soviet player's first choice to attack. They have low proficiencies and break easily when attacked. They don't evap easily though, which creates problems in giving a Soviet offensive some serious momentum. I suspect that this has much to do with the force one proficiency setting in the editor and is unavoidable. Ultimately, a cagey Axis player will use those broken down units to at least sponge off Soviet movement points by creating a (weak) ZOC, hoping to slow the advance enough to rally reinforcements to the affected area.
The Rumanian units, as a whole, acquit themselves well in this scenario. They're reasonably effective in an offensive role, especially with flanking bonuses. Defensively, with favorable terrain and dug-in, they'll hold for a couple of turns. In open terrain, they'll break, even when dug-in.
LFD's…. these seem to have about the same effectiveness as Soviet forces. They'll hold until pressured heavily and pack a solid punch in an attack…. but I'd rather see these in a defensive line than regular German infantry!
Regular German infantry and panzertruppen are next to impossible to move when dug-in. Heavy losses always result, any ground gained against them is almost invariably lost the following turn. Best odds for success against them would involve turning a flank of a German held section of the line and grinding away slowly. Quite effectively offensively, especially when used in force.
There's also a couple of SS Divisions in this scenario. Needless to say, they're even more difficult to uproot then Heere units, though if you can elements of a division isolated from its parent formation, they can be pounded on pretty severely. It also goes without saying that these units can launch some devastating offensives and counterattacks.
There remains an assortment of Ukrainian, Polish, and Turkish units, along with various security and "alarm" battalions. I'd rate their effectiveness between that of the Italians and Rumanians, both offensively and defensively.
Finally, 6th Armee deserves some special mention. These forces, while low on supplies and replacements, are heavily dug in, have ample artillery, and the benefit of multiple fortified lines. Cracking the pocket will not be an easy proposition and if not careful, the Soviet player can even lose ground here, as counterattacks tend to be effective- maybe more so than historically possible.
To conclude this dissertation, I'll briefly outline things that the Axis side must do in this scenario to be successful:
First, Axis forces must hold their defensive line as far forward as possible. Even a cursory glance at the map is sufficient to establish the reasoning behind this- once forced from a secure anchorage along the Don River, there is precious little in good continuous defensive terrain for the Axis forces to fall back upon. While there is a minor river here, a wadi there, some hills and such, there isn't enough to serve as a secure, long-term anchor.
Second, the Axis player will be compelled to reinforce his weaker units with regular German infantry (ideally, as opposed to more mobile formations), or least have a ready reserve available to serve as a fire brigade for any trouble spots. As can be seen in the initial deployments, the Italian 8th Army (in particular) holds a long stretch of the front line. This initial position also has as close to an ideal terrain as possible in southeastern Russia for doing so, but my experiences with this scenario show that the forces allocated are not equal to the task assigned, as was the case historically some 60 years ago.
Third, holding the pocket and keeping the HQ units that serve as bonus VP triggers intact for the game. While Stalingrad itself and the bonus VPs in the pockets are only 20 points (in the playtest version) altogether, that's a victory level (if I'm not mistaken). Needless to say, Soviet success here means that LVII PzK's relief efforts have likely failed and other VP locations are returning to the Motherland as well!
I am convinced that a vigorous attack against the Italian 8th Army early will pay the best dividends for the Soviet side in this scenario. On TDG's website (www.tdg.nu) under the Wintergewitter thread, there is a link to an AAR which had not (when I read it) been officially posted, showing the great success the Soviet player had in pursuing such a strategy. Admittedly, the Axis player's efforts seemed somewhat half-hearted and contradictory in that game, but it is a good illustration of the crushing difficulties the Axis player faces when the Italians fall apart without immediate and wholesale reinforcement by German forces.
In "Wintergewitter 42"
In this document, which I pray doesn't become too lengthy, I intend to discuss the Axis side of the above-named scenario. Much of my commentary comes from my playtest experience from the Axis side. It is hoped that this unique insight into the workings of the scenario will assist the Soviet side in crushing the vaunted Heere and retaking Rostov from the western invaders.
We are all familiar to some extent or another with the story of Stalingrad in 1942 and 1943. I won't rehash it here…. there are many fine publications out there which have more detail, better illustrations, and so forth, than I could produce from my computer, especially given the time constraints faced. With that in mind, away we go….
The initial position is fairly much set. The only variable from the Axis side in this regard is deployment of LVII Panzer Korps (hereafter PzK). There are three options for this- north, central, and south (historical). Central and southern deployments make the most sense from the Axis perspective- though this assumes that the Axis player intends to make a serious effort to relieve the Stalingrad pocket.
A northern deployment would indicate (to me, at least) that the Axis player has no intent on liberating the pocket. Lead elements of LVII PzK would have about 100km (20 hexes or so) from their assembly points to the nearest units of 6th Armee. This isn't to say that such an advance is not possible, but given the length of the advance, the dangers of two exposed flanks, and ease with which Soviet forces can intervene along this route are factors that preclude such an audacious venture. It should be noted though, that a well planned and executed offensive could potentially pocket a large number of Soviet forces in the "bulge" between Sovetskaya and Surovinko, which would then create quite an interesting situation for both players. Also, this deployment makes it much easier for the Axis player to counter any offensive versus the Italian 8th Army and more specifically, the Italian 29th and 35th Corps holding the line to the northwest of where LVII PzK would be located, thus easing the defensive pressures of the Axis player somewhat.
A central deployment has the primary advantage of being closest to the pocket- 8 to 10 hexes between LVII PzK and 6th Armee. The area is also reasonably well served by a rail line, allowing additional reinforcements to flow rapidly into the area if the battle develops favorably for the Axis player. Unfortunately from the Axis perspective, the terrain is terrible for attacking. The Don River splits the obvious axis of advance neatly in half, so the Axis player is forced to decide whether to launch his relief effort from the south or north bank on the Don almost immediately. He has a small bridgehead across to the southern bank close to Nitsky Cherskaya, but it is weakly held. Add in several smaller tributaries of the Don, especially on the southern bank, and an Axis advance is problematic at best. Either choice offers flank protection thanks to the Don, but leaves the other flank wide open for the Soviet Army to exploit. Also, because of the cramped nature of this section of the front, as well as the limited road net, movement penalties pile up quickly for the Axis player, eating up his turn and limiting the striking power LVII PzK has in doing so.
Ultimately, the southern deployment is the one that makes the most sense from the German side. While LVII PzK is hampered by the need to cover roughly 80km (16 or so hexes) to reach the closest elements of 6th Armee, it offers the opportunity for several varieties of advance- broad front, or more narrowly focused ones either along the Don River (which offers excellent flank protection up to the Myshkova River, at the very least), or along the Kotelnikova-Shestakov road. It also gives the Axis player more security for his frontage south of the Don, as the only units in the area at the start of the game are a pair of Rumanian cavalry divisions and a Luftwaffe Field Division (hereafter, LFD). These forces alone would be hard pressed to stop a determined effort to take Rostov, which is a big VP prize for either side.
Also, there are some additional theater options available to the German player. These involve whether or not to have an early release of the 19th Panzer Division (hereafter, PzD), early release of 1st Panzer Army (hereafter, PzA), and whether or not to initiate Operation "Thunderclap," the breakout attempt that was never ordered historically.
The early release of 19th PzD is a mixed blessing for the Axis side. It comes with no VP cost, and it appears on turn two. It's a strong unit for striking at the Soviet positions, or to assist holding a defensive position. Unfortunately for the Axis side, it appears on the western map edge- well away from the action. Unless rail capacity for the Axis side has been increased, the Axis player won't be able to entrain the entire division at once. This means that it may take 3 or 4 turns for the division to travel from its arrival hex to wherever the Axis player wishes to employ it at something resembling full strength. In this scenario, that can be a bad thing, as the situation can change very quickly, meaning the division may show up at the wrong spot and need to travel elsewhere, or its elements may get separated and diffused across a large area. The chief benefit of this option though, for the Axis side, is that it "unfreezes" the Italian 8th Army, allowing the Axis player to dig them in further, or withdraw them from the Don River, or even to boldly attack into Soviet positions and destroy bridges across the Don River. Otherwise, without taking this option, the Italian 8th Army is in a "garrison" mode for the first 4 tuns of play.
The early release of 1st PzA is now more problematic for the Axis player. In the version I playtested, it was another "freebie"- a powerful formation that more than tilts things favorably for the Axis side. Now, the Soviet 44th Army is released with it, so at least part of 1st PzA will need to stay in the front to oppose 44th Army. Its lead elements will appear between turns 5 and 10, with additional elements appearing thereafter. This is part of the curse- the Axis player doesn't know for certain what units are arriving on what turn, which makes planning difficult. Also, these units arrive along the southern map edge in such a way that piecemeal committal of them is hard to resist. They also suffer from the low Axis rail capacity and therefore take time to arrive and assemble in strength as 19th PzD above. I'll further note that 1/2 of these units do not arrive on a rail-hex, so that they must travel along unimproved road to reach a railhead and entrain, which helps weaken various elements of the formation as a whole.
If the Axis player has chosen the above two theater options, Operation Thunderclap is considered cancelled. It will still appear in the Axis TO menu, but the scenario briefing is clear on this as an honor rule. The skinny on this option is this: It gives the Axis player a supply point in the 6th Armee pocket (not a distant one, as at Gumrak). It also gives the German player a pretty powerful striking force, a Kampfgruppe, if you will, assembled from an ad hoc collection of units inside the pocket. The downsides are as follows: this supply point lasts only 6 turns- and then all supply inside the pocket is gone, including Gumrak. Also, the Axis player loses 3 of his air units (bomber-type) that would theoretically be used to maximize air supply into the pocket. This is a double-edged sword for the Axis player- if LVII PzK has pushed close enough to the pocket; this might be enough to get the HQs out the pocket that trigger VP bonuses for the Soviet side. It should also allow other combat units break out safely. Failure to do so however, means that the pocket will collapse rapidly, starved from supply and losses will not fall back into the replacement pool for the Axis side.
It seems that now is an appropriate time to comment on some of the more general issues faced by the Axis player in this scenario.
--Reserves are few and far between! In my experiences playtesting this scenario against Foggy, what limited reserve I had was almost immediately committed early on in the game. Thus, my only reserves available for some time became the reinforcements due to appear, which is a dangerous way to play, for pretty obvious reasons.
--Reinforcements have a long way to travel. I've touched on this in my discussion of the theater options above. I'll further note that there are other scheduled reinforcements for the German side, and these compound the Axis player's troubles in prioritizing movement towards the front. Arrivals in the first 10 turns include, 385th Infantry Division (hereafter, ID) on turn 3, 27th PzD on turn 4, 387th ID and 3rd Mountain Division on turn 7. The next significant reinforcements do not arrive until turn 25 (26th ID), though there are some minor battalion and artillery units that show up between turns 18-21. Turns 28-30 see the arrival of 257th PanzerLehr, turns 30 and 31 see the arrival of the 335th ID, and finally, on turn 40, 302nd ID arrives.
--Difficulty in maintaining air superiority. The air battle in this scenario is touch and go the entire game. It favors the Axis side in qualitative terms, and from the perspective of being side one in this scenario. Many Axis air units start the game well to the rear, which helps the Soviet side a little bit. Expect frequent airfield attacks!
--Traffic control is a nightmare from the Axis view. Limited road and rail network lead to stacking issues, especially early in the game when the first significant wave of Axis reinforcements arrive. These issues tend to eat away at the Axis player's ability to maximize his combat rounds at a vital juncture in the game.
--Cooperation issues between Axis units- believe or not, most of the Axis units, even German army ones, have limited cooperation at best. This makes the German efforts sloppier than they otherwise might be, and handicaps the Axis player into trying to remember if 19th PzD and 27th PzD are fully cooperative or not, for example.
--Supply point at Zimovinki disappears after turn 12 if early release of 1st PzA is chosen, turn 30 if not. While there are supply units on the Axis side to help ameriolate this problem, supply issues for the Axis side become difficult south of the Don River- the next closest supply point is over 100km away, north of the Don.
This document just wouldn't be complete without some discussion of the various forces employed by the Axis in this scenario. There are a variety of nationalities and ethnicities represented on the Axis side. Some perform very well; others just eat supply and occupy space.
Italian forces in this scenario should be the Soviet player's first choice to attack. They have low proficiencies and break easily when attacked. They don't evap easily though, which creates problems in giving a Soviet offensive some serious momentum. I suspect that this has much to do with the force one proficiency setting in the editor and is unavoidable. Ultimately, a cagey Axis player will use those broken down units to at least sponge off Soviet movement points by creating a (weak) ZOC, hoping to slow the advance enough to rally reinforcements to the affected area.
The Rumanian units, as a whole, acquit themselves well in this scenario. They're reasonably effective in an offensive role, especially with flanking bonuses. Defensively, with favorable terrain and dug-in, they'll hold for a couple of turns. In open terrain, they'll break, even when dug-in.
LFD's…. these seem to have about the same effectiveness as Soviet forces. They'll hold until pressured heavily and pack a solid punch in an attack…. but I'd rather see these in a defensive line than regular German infantry!
Regular German infantry and panzertruppen are next to impossible to move when dug-in. Heavy losses always result, any ground gained against them is almost invariably lost the following turn. Best odds for success against them would involve turning a flank of a German held section of the line and grinding away slowly. Quite effectively offensively, especially when used in force.
There's also a couple of SS Divisions in this scenario. Needless to say, they're even more difficult to uproot then Heere units, though if you can elements of a division isolated from its parent formation, they can be pounded on pretty severely. It also goes without saying that these units can launch some devastating offensives and counterattacks.
There remains an assortment of Ukrainian, Polish, and Turkish units, along with various security and "alarm" battalions. I'd rate their effectiveness between that of the Italians and Rumanians, both offensively and defensively.
Finally, 6th Armee deserves some special mention. These forces, while low on supplies and replacements, are heavily dug in, have ample artillery, and the benefit of multiple fortified lines. Cracking the pocket will not be an easy proposition and if not careful, the Soviet player can even lose ground here, as counterattacks tend to be effective- maybe more so than historically possible.
To conclude this dissertation, I'll briefly outline things that the Axis side must do in this scenario to be successful:
First, Axis forces must hold their defensive line as far forward as possible. Even a cursory glance at the map is sufficient to establish the reasoning behind this- once forced from a secure anchorage along the Don River, there is precious little in good continuous defensive terrain for the Axis forces to fall back upon. While there is a minor river here, a wadi there, some hills and such, there isn't enough to serve as a secure, long-term anchor.
Second, the Axis player will be compelled to reinforce his weaker units with regular German infantry (ideally, as opposed to more mobile formations), or least have a ready reserve available to serve as a fire brigade for any trouble spots. As can be seen in the initial deployments, the Italian 8th Army (in particular) holds a long stretch of the front line. This initial position also has as close to an ideal terrain as possible in southeastern Russia for doing so, but my experiences with this scenario show that the forces allocated are not equal to the task assigned, as was the case historically some 60 years ago.
Third, holding the pocket and keeping the HQ units that serve as bonus VP triggers intact for the game. While Stalingrad itself and the bonus VPs in the pockets are only 20 points (in the playtest version) altogether, that's a victory level (if I'm not mistaken). Needless to say, Soviet success here means that LVII PzK's relief efforts have likely failed and other VP locations are returning to the Motherland as well!
I am convinced that a vigorous attack against the Italian 8th Army early will pay the best dividends for the Soviet side in this scenario. On TDG's website (www.tdg.nu) under the Wintergewitter thread, there is a link to an AAR which had not (when I read it) been officially posted, showing the great success the Soviet player had in pursuing such a strategy. Admittedly, the Axis player's efforts seemed somewhat half-hearted and contradictory in that game, but it is a good illustration of the crushing difficulties the Axis player faces when the Italians fall apart without immediate and wholesale reinforcement by German forces.