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Bruce
11 Mar 04, 13:48
From MikeJ:

Maybe it's just me, but I have no intention of losing the initative, if at all possible. I'm hoping to get slotted into TO Northern Deployment. That's a good position to annihilate the 5th Tank Army and re-establish contact with 6th army (and if conditions are favourable I fully intend to keep them in play to keep Don Front forces occupied). Put a good scare into the Soviet player, threaten his troops with encirclement and you won't have to worry about the Soviets launching offensives all over the place. He'll send 2nd Guards Army to you (so you can encircle and destroy it in detail ;). After a brief look at the scenario, I've noticed a lot of places where the front can be weakened to concentrate heavier on the attack. The weakest fronts (Italian/Rumanian) can be spread even thinner - we're going to get crushed there anyways regardless of what we do, so don't get any illusions about holding the Don. We can afford to lose a lot of territory on those fronts anyways. Granted, that's all easier said than done, but if there's one thing I've learned in TOAW it's that you can scare people fairly easily. You get really experienced opponents and it's difficult, but against your average TOAW player a strong offensive, even one that has no chance of ultimate success will have them falling all over themselves. I like high-risk/high-payoff strategies and frankly I don't see good prospects for winning the attrition war. The Soviets get 580 rifle squads per turn, we get 80. If we sit around and play defensively, even if we are all master tacticians, we're likely to lose. More likely, a competent Soviet opponent will just run us into the ground with repeated, heavy attacks. And there is really no answer for that given the victory conditions.

From Furocity:

Mike I think the idea of hitting hard in the north is bold and might work, it also depends where he places his 2nd guards. I love nothing more than taking out Russians, but I think getting the HQ units out of the pocket is the number one objective.

From Nemo:

I've yet to formalize thoughts and notes taken during the play but I second the idea that initiative should not be surrendered to the Russian side. I believe 6. Armee can be reached from the outside but the question remains wether it can have a significant combat value after the encirclement is broken, even with the Thunderclap TO activated - units in the pocket seem indeed very weak.

From Bruce:

MikeJ has already explained how this deployment can be used. Basically it reduces the chances of relieving the pocket in exchange for the possibility of pocketing large numbers of Soviets. If the Soviets choose a Northern Deployment this offensive could stall immediately. If they choose a centre deployment they could prevent the pocket being closed from the South. If the Soviets choose a Southern deployment they will probably be clobbered! Two out of three Soviet deployments could cause problems with this plan.

MikeJ
11 Mar 04, 14:45
On the contrary, I think pocketing 5 Tank Army (and maybe 1st Tank Corps) would make relieving the pocket cake. It's sort of how Guderian tried to convince Hitler that if they took Moscow, seizing the Ukraine would be easier :).

The caveat to this is you have to be careful not to move adjacent to the big red units, or you risk activating them early. And there's also the spectre of a center deployment by 2nd Guards Army, which could ruin the day.

Now, 5TA is pretty strong on its own, but I think it's quite possible to do but you'll need a little luck and be able to pull off many combat rounds during the shock phases.

Risky, but I think very doable and if successfull, you've changed the entire strategic situation.

nemo
12 Mar 04, 03:24
Pocketing 5TA is tempting, but has to be cancelled in case of a central deployment TO for 2GA. Given good TOs conditions (2GA deplayed north or even better south, early release of 1. PzA, northern deployement of LVIII. PzK), the question remains : what to do with the usable part of 1. PzA (assume 3 PzGr / Pzr Divisions?) :


reinforce success in helping out LVII. PzK? (useful if 2GA is deployed north?)
try to relieve the Stalingrad pocket? But will 3 divisions be enough for the task and will they make it in time?
help stem the incoming soviet offensive in the northern part of the front?
Any thoughts?

MikeJ
12 Mar 04, 07:20
I'd probably send them to Kerch, which is the likely point of linkup with 6th army in a TO North situation. Won't say for certain since it depends what is happening, of couse.

If the Soviet player wants to keep his strength on the periphery to bash in the Italians and Rumanians, all the better. I'll let him do it. I'll even facilitate it by draining those fronts of anything useful. Our superiority with 7-8 Pz/PzG divisions in and around Kerch will allow us not only to open a strong corridor to 6th army (at which time KG Thunderclap can be triggered - each regiment one has a paper strength of a Soviet non-Guards Rifle Division... given it's TO&E, mobility and proficiency advantages the 3 panzer regiments of KG Thunderclap are almost going to be worth an entire Soviet Rifle Division army - it's main cost is that supply point.. just gotta make sure we don't lose the corridor heh... the 3 bomber units aren't really a big deal, IMO) but it will also allow us to move our front, right up to the Don river which can be held without requiring any fancy panzer units, just some decent infantry. A strong Soviet push against the Italians or Rumanians is a threat, but we have quite a bit of time before the Soviets can do serious damage on these fronts. My guess is we'll have at least 10 turns before anything becomes critical. The Italian front is a little more vulnerable because of the proximity of Millerovo, but the good news there is that the Soviet player probably won't trigger little saturn until turn 4 (activating on turn 5), if at all. If he beats down the Italians, good for him. Meanwhile I'll be either vacating the pocket (either to strengthen the rest of my frontlinesm, ordisband them which will have the same effect) or strengthening it, while establishing a new frontline on the Don. In either case, forces will be available to put an end to any attack on the Italians (and yet another opportunity to bag Soviet forces).

If I was the Soviet player and I lost a good chunk of 5TA and had the Axis threatening a linkup (or already linked up) with 6th army, I'd strip the Rumanian and Italian fronts of everything but a scratch force, link up with 2nd Guards Army and go right to the pocket corridor to crush it. The Soviet player can't really afford to let you linkup with 6th army to let it escape or get back into decent supply. If he does, I bet 9 times out of 10 he loses the game. Use this knowledge to force him to mass and come to you.

In my view, that kind of epic confrontation over a supply corridor is ideal, even if we would enter the fight at a disadvantage (eg if the Soviet plalyer strips all other fronts and comes charging down for a big battle). He has to fight our concentrated Panzers and not bash in our weakling allies and force us to disperse. Pit 7-8 (3x 57th PzK, 11th panzer, 3 divisons from 1PzA and a partial panzer division in the 22nd), plus 6th army's KG Thunderclap (there's also a fairly proficient Rumanian armoured division, though it lacks replacements for its armor) + quite a lot of infantry in the central region and I'd be confident in taking on anything the Soviet player can throw at me plus the kitchen sink.

We should also look at what to do if we can't linkup with 6th army, which I suspect will happen more often than we like. You know my thoughts - tactical encirclements, defensive traps with massed mobile formations... but those play to my strengths. I have a pretty good knack for squeezing out combat rounds which makes this the ideal way for me to play.

If you find you're only getting a couple combat rounds per turn, it might be better to just stick to tactical defensive battle (assuming you fail in linking up with 6th army - you should try, in my view..) and hope you outplay your opponent. As noted before though, the sheer mass of Soviet replacements makes this difficult... and the fact that the map is one, giant mass of grasslands.

A note about this: if you decide to go this route, it might be best to take a good look at TO&Es. SOme German infantry are made up of AT+ infantry squads - their AT ratings are higher than most WW2 tanks - when fortified their AT ratings are x3 [AT+ infantry squads have an AT rating of 45 when fortified - you can kill an M1 Abrams with that kind of AT rating)... but the bulk of the Italians, Rumanians and luftwaffe field divisions contain LRS and RS... so they will need AT support of some kind. Going to be a lot of sacrifices here, because with this terrain all you can really do witht this style of play is continually dig in and hope it's enough... the decision making will be in where you reinforce, not in how you deploy.... just make sure to add some depth to your line... if you only have enough troops to hold a single, unbroken line, consider staggering it. It'll be much more effective against breakthrough/encirclement attempts by the Soviets. So for example:

Unbroken line:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Staggered:

x x x x x x
x x x x x x

(edit, the second row should be one space over, but it doesn't show up properly)

It'll give him more opportunities for flank assaults, but at this scale (most of the axis units are regimental) flank assaults are usually overrated (only trucks and horse teams as passive equipment for the most part) and frankly, given the size and strength of the Soviet divisions, they're going to walk all over our infantry anyways, flank assault or no flank assault. I also strongly recommend you do NOT breakdown the weak infantry units to cover more terrain. For example you could keep a solid frontline and build a second one out of it if you broke the units down.. but that will only make it worse. Keep units regimental unless you absolutely have no other choice.

What we absolutely can't afford is for the Soviets to encircle us in a big way. Sacrificing a regiment here, a reigment there to encirclement is no big deal.

The only exception I'd suggest for the no-breakdowns-unless-necessary rule is if your opponent goes supply-drain happy. It's a good way to mitigate the effects of supply drain if you can afford to give up ground, but at the same time, he could easily switch his tactics once you've exposed yourself in such a way.

Anyways, I'm just rambling at this point so I'll stop here ;).