Understanding the Replacement Pool

[otto]

A technical question for the group. I have begun my attack on France in 1939 with the new version of the scenario (obviously have not used Case Yellow). After romping through Belguim in a turn and taking an isolated Netherlands on the next I began my attack on France. I was able to punch through a few forts of the extended Maginot Line (Allies choose the Extend Maginot TO) and I am continuing to slog westward to Paris. I fear though that my Heavy Squad losses are prohibitive.

The Replacement Pool states that there is a rate of 350 per turn for turns 1-223. It is turn 13 and I have lost 16,696 Hvy Squads and only have 719 On Hand. I have 33,010 assigned which is not much different from where the Axis started the war at around 33,896 (I choose the pre-war builds TO).

Are my following assumptions on how to "read" the replacement pool correct:

1. I will get 350 Hvy Squads added to the At Hand category each turn. So I should see that go up by 350 each turn assuming no new assignments or losses?

2. After turn 223 there will be no more Heavy Squads to replace losses?

3. For those who have played the game a few times as Axis, are these losses too much? Have I in essence lost the war by turn 13? I am guessing that I can take Paris before the Sitz but, it will cost me another 16,000. Wait for Case Yellow???

Your thoughts gang are greatly appreciated.

[Mantis]

The standard for crushing France is roughly 30k HRS losses (vs a competent opponent, who will fight better than France did historically). If he extended the Maginot line, and you are forced to bulldog through it (no EC variant for you?) Losses of 35-40k are not unreasonable. Still high, but not a death-knell.

If you crush France before the sitz, and manage to do something good with the extra time this gives you, then consider it well worth the price. (Like having the entire map under Axis control, (save England, etc) with perfectly rested formations ready to blast into the Reds; this is a good thing!)

[Mantis]

Originally posted by otto
[B]
1. I will get 350 Hvy Squads added to the At Hand category each turn. So I should see that go up by 350 each turn assuming no new assignments or losses?

350 will be added each turn, yes. But you'll never really 'see' it, as some of them will be distributed before you get to look at the screen again. But yes, you get 350 per turn.


2. After turn 223 there will be no more Heavy Squads to replace losses?

Correct. If you haven't won by then at any rate, you're unlikely to. Why DO they stop production, Mark?

[Dan Neely]

edit just to fix quoting

Originally posted by otto
A technical question for the group. I have begun my attack on France in 1939 with the new version of the scenario (obviously have not used Case Yellow). After romping through Belguim in a turn and taking an isolated Netherlands on the next I began my attack on France. I was able to punch through a few forts of the extended Maginot Line (Allies choose the Extend Maginot TO) and I am continuing to slog westward to Paris. I fear though that my Heavy Squad losses are prohibitive.

The Replacement Pool states that there is a rate of 350 per turn for turns 1-223. It is turn 13 and I have lost 16,696 Hvy Squads and only have 719 On Hand. I have 33,010 assigned which is not much different from where the Axis started the war at around 33,896 (I choose the pre-war builds TO).

Are my following assumptions on how to "read" the replacement pool correct:

1. I will get 350 Hvy Squads added to the At Hand category each turn. So I should see that go up by 350 each turn assuming no new assignments or losses?


assuming no counterattacks by the allies you should see the total go up by 350 each turn. squads will be drawn from the at hand group so it won't increase by 350/turn unless all of your corps are at full strength


2. After turn 223 there will be no more Heavy Squads to replace losses?


correct. begining around 171 you'll be getting 252 heavy rifle AT squads/turn instead instead. All german corps have slots for both types.


3. For those who have played the game a few times as Axis, are these losses too much? Have I in essence lost the war by turn 13? I am guessing that I can take Paris before the Sitz but, it will cost me another 16,000. Wait for Case Yellow???


It depends. If you stop now the surviving french corps will recover signifigantly over the course of the winter leaving you a much stronger opponent in the spring. OTOH, you should be able to advance several hexes with case yellow for reasonable losses. It really depends on how close you are to paris, and how much of the french army you've evaporated so far. The real benefit of finihshing the french off in 39 would be beign able to srping sea lion before the brits can organize any additional forces to stop you. With the French reorg no longer reconstituing after france falls, I think sea lion is certainly a possiblity now. If i can find the time (doubtful) I intend to run a hotseat test on the subject. To make a more specific judgement about your case, I'd have to know more about your game situation. If you'd like I'd be willing to comment on a .sal you emailed me.


for comparison here are the results from my 2 most recent games as the axis. in both I didn't take the prewar builds, and invaded france in 1940. I don't think you've suffered fatal losses, but you probabally won't be able to invade the soviet union until 1941 which will make 1940 rather slow unless you invade the uk. If successful, the 20% replacement drop the allies suffer from the fall of london will probabally compensate for the loss of the barbarossa shock and slower initial progress as a result of your being farther from full strength, and having a number of corps tied up in england for the invasion. The brits will only have the equivilant of 4 regular and 5 reserve corps at the start of 1940, +1 if you bring it italians in (after moping out in ethiopia), less if you manage to kill any elsewhere. Of the starting british units only the division sized and african corps reconstitute.

in a 1.5 game vs Andrew I took 35k hrs losses by the time I subdued france, the balkans, and egypt by mid june 1940. I suffered an additional 3k losses in the middle east and the southern part of africa before securing everything. By the time winter 40-41 ended I'd recoved all my losses. I managed to crush russia shortly before winter shock would've set in in 1942.

In an ongoing 1.7c game with kraut I took substantially heavier losses IIRC about 50k hrs in france, and annother 10-15k in africa and the mideast. (I don't have pbls of that game on this PC to check) I don't think I'm going reach the historical limit of advance before winter sets in.

[Dan Neely]

Originally posted by Mantis


350 will be added each turn, yes. But you'll never really 'see' it, as some of them will be distributed before you get to look at the screen again. But yes, you get 350 per turn.



Correct. If you haven't won by then at any rate, you're unlikely to. Why DO they stop production, Mark?

To simulate decreasing german manpower as the war grinds on.

[otto]

Thanks guys. Appreciate as always the response and ideas. No need to send you the turn Dan (thanks for the kind offer) as I was more concerned with understanding the replacement pool than developing a strategy. The comments are right on the spot. The fun part of this game is the "damned if you do and damned if you don't" strategic decisions that must be made. I am inclined to press on and just get France out of the war asap and then get on with things at some point in 1940.