Early Pre-war Builds Attack France in 1939

[lanemh]

My opponent has invested in Pre-war builds and is rushing everything to the front in 1939 to attack France.

A. What are the odds of France surviving?

B. What are the odds of France surviving if all available UK forces are thrown into the fray to support France?

If A<50% and B<70% then I have no choice except to withhold the UK forces and concede France in order to have any chance of holding out long enough for the US forces to arrive.

Advice please on surviving Blitzkrieg in 1939.

{{Salute}}


Guy Hawk

[Chuck?]

What do you mean by 'odds of France surviving'? Until 1940 or the entire war? If 1940 than the odds are around 40% of Paris being held until the cease fire. Otherwise 0. Adding the UK units could increase the change of France surviving to about 50%.


Here is some advice to make it tough for the Axis:


Dig in most units and set to ignore losses.

Don't worry so much about the channel ports or south France. Keep most units in northern France to guard the approach to Paris.
It's a use-em or lose-em situation so better off using them.

Bloody the Germans for every hex they take.

Bring home all of France's colonial units.

Blow bridges as you fall back.

Don't overstack too much; you can keep a lot of the units on reserve status.

Move into Belgium if they join the Allies before German declares war on them.

[lanemh]

I guess 40% chance of survival till 1940 is something at least.

Thanks for the suggestions.

'La jour de gloire et arrive' for my Frenchies.

{{Salute}}


Guy Hawk

[Chuck?]

Let us know how it goes. It also depends on when the attack is launched. If they go after Poland and/or Norway/Denmark first then there isn't going to be much time for the Axis to take Paris.

[Dan Neely]

Timing is a very important factor, launching case yellow 4 or 5 turns before the sitzkreig is a major part of the chain of catastrophies that've lead to vaughns axis being solidly on the defensive in july40 after the fall of rome. The big question is if he'll be able to establish a solid defence line before i can push through the alps to liberate Vienna. Loss penalty currently stands at ~36/12 in the allies favor, and several more corps likely to be lost before a new line can be established.

[FAIRS]

In my current game as allies my opponent did the same 1939 attack on France and he has not slowed down at all. It is early 1940 and I have lost everything but England and Russia is 1 or 2 turns from falling, in other words I'm 1 or 2 turns from surrender.
I tried to defend france with british help (although i did not realize i could use the Reserve units outside of england. Germany managed to take paris by the end of the 3 turn shock bonus-but they where all runing out of supply-if paris could have held out one more turn it would have delayed the fall of france for perhaps 4-8 more turns at best.
I had weakened south africa and egypt to defend france so i lost alexandria to a para drop-invasion after yugo and greece fell. He was able to get troops into south africa before i could take adis adaba and i lost cape town as well. i lost gibralter through spain and malta and cape town fell after a successfull battle of britain increased his shipping. This is the first game i have played as the allies and it has been one disaster after another. 12 or so turns after he attacked russia he has taken stalingrad, come through middle east to take baku and is about to take moscow--i have a pipedream that massive russian troops will appear this turn but it is still going to be too late. My advise is to make sure he cant take the Med as quickly as happened to me by keeping all brits in alex, malta,gibralter.--once france falls you cant hold gibralter if he activates spain so clear those colonial italians in africa and delay delay delay in the med. Kudos to my opponent he did not waste a turn and planned his game perfectly.:(

[Aussie Battler]

I have played v1.3 in entirety as axis. It was a draw.

Now playing v1.7 as allied and am up to turn 132.

In first game I attacked France in 1940. I used the special TO to get bonus. It certainly was no blitz and although eventually france did fall it cost Germans a lot of casualties. In current game the axis side chose to extend Siegfried line. That forfeited the good bonus. Again France did fall after being attacked after 39/40 winter. It took long time for france to fall and France nearly made it to following winter before Paris fell.

In both games France has been far from a pushover.

In current 1.7 game the Mediterranean strategy is in play. Axis targets have been Gibraltar via Spain and Suez via Turkey. To date they have succeeded in neither of these objectives.

The option to activate Russia when axis encroach 3 hexes from Ankarra is a god send. As soon as option to activate Russia became available I chose it and railed Russian reserves to set up defence in Turkey. The axis have not made concerted attacks on East front so reserves were available to shift from there into Turkey. Once route to Baku blocked in Turkey the german panzers headed south through Palestine. Not good news for British. As axis can support far stronger force there that British have to defend.

Again the Russians helped out a lot. With most of german strength in Middle East and little activity on East front the mobile Russian forces were railed into Iraq. they crossed desert and set themselves up along very exposed german flank. Germany needs railway line running along Middle east coast otherwise no more forces can move through middle east. Therefore considerable forces need to man that flank. That keeps them away from attacking towards Suez.

Now I am getting plenty of Russian infantry corps. They are all going to Turkey. Now mounting own offensive to bludgeon way through axis line. Also using cavalry and armoured units to skirt round german flank in Turkey. That is tying donw more axis armoured units. helping relieve pressure towards Suez.

I also identified Gibraltar as very important. Once Spain fell I moved an entire UK corps to rock. Also some other Corps. Also the British navy to set up Blockade so axis fleet can't bring naval units to bombard in support of attack. I keep RAF fighters on Rock. At least one unit possibly two. They kept evaporating and when they reconsitiute they move back there. Every turn axis air attacks on Rock. US entered on turn 74. Once the 1st major reinforcements arrived , that very turn the axis made assault on Gibraltar. The defence held. No it is winter and British have made own attacks out of Gibraltar.

Italians were camped at El Alemain. I had set up defence of west flank of Egypt there. The Rommel panzer unit was moved using extra sealift of successful Sea Lion onto mainland. now it is winter the Italain force has been routed completely. Axis units have been taken from Palestine to Torbruk to block coast path all the way to Tripoli. There were no axis units at all in North Africa before rout of Italians.

So after 131 turns there is still plenty of fight left in allied side. They are keeping axis off balance as far as possible.

Already axis units are being forced to deploy to put out brush fires. My bottom line is to relieve pressure on Suez. Don't let axis side attack Suez with overwhelming force. Use own attacks to threaten axis communications through Turkey. If Russia can take Ankarra then bad for any axis units in Middle East. So my attacks in Turkey are forcing axis to commit reserves to defend line of communications.

Gibraltar very important in my view. Defend at all costs. Malta harder for axis to take. Have to hold these to allow forces to move through Meditteranean to Egypt.

Clear east africa as soon as possible.

[Chuck?]

It is a good idea to keep one full sized British corp on both Gibraltar and Malta. This will weaken the defense of Egpyt but as long as you keep Gibraltar and Malta you will have a thorn in the underbelly of the Axis empire no matter what else happens.