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laszlo.nemedi
16 Jun 03, 15:41
AAR

Written by: Laszlo Nemedi

Date: from 18 May 2003 to 30 May 2003

Players:
Soviet, first force: JAMiAM
Axis, second force: Laszlo Nemedi

Scenario: Kharkov 42 (CD version converted to Opart300)

Turn: variable (actually it was 14 turns)

TOAW version: COW 1.06

Result: JAMiAM substantial victory

BAA (Before Action Analysis)

1. Opponent: JAMiAM
In every strategy making process (in TOAW PBEM, but not only) the first thing you should know is your opponent.
JAMiAM is on the top of the ladder of WarfareHQ, not unbeatable (he has some lost games, too), but should be experienced. His posts in the forum show he is very good at the work of the game engine in details (I always love reading them). And one of his post he said (15 May) he is good at micromanagement, not the grand strategy. The scenario he offered was really about micromanagement not really grand strategy (small rapid scenario).
Conclusion: I will loose most of the tactical battle (one hex battle), only hope is the operational level (movement level), or the strategy level (choosing right strategy) can be. These levels require room and time (turn) to develop, but Kharkov 42 maybe not that kind of scenario.

2. Scenario: Kharkov 42
This is a two-phase scenario. First phase is the Soviet offensive turns, then in the second phase the Axis side will get a lot of reinforcement.

Reinforcement: there is no reinforcement for the Soviet. The Axis will get the reinforcements in the following order:
Turn 4: 19 units
Turn 5: 36 units
Turn 6: 9 units
The soviet starts with 130 units in the theatre, the Axis starts with 147 (of course much weaker units). Reinforcement arrives near Poltava, near Dnepropetrovsk, and the south of Krasnoarmeyskoye.

Victory points: the battle start at significant victory for the Axis. Loosing Kharkov means defeat for the Axis, loosing only smaller villages means draw, loosing Poltava or Dnepropetrovsk means overwhelming defeat.

Withdrawal: if north of Pavlograd is occupied by the soviet the Rumanian units will be withdrawn at certain possibility.

Supply points: Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, south of Krasnoarmeyskoye, Kharkov has supply point, +2 other point in the south and one in the north. The opponent supply point are well placed, so no need for bridge bombing on supply line.

Plan: I have to defend Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk, south of Krasnoarmeyskoye, Kharkov, and a hex north of Pavlograd at all cost for victory. Kharkov should be defended by my original forces, Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk will be defended by my reinforcements, only enemy slow down operation needed until turn 4-5-6.
North of Pavlograd will be defended by Rumanian forces (if they will be destroyed it will be no problem if they will be withdrawn) (their fate in their hands!).
South of Krasnoarmeyskoye should be defended until the reinforcement arrives there, after that only a small defensive operation should be performed to protect one of the supply points in the south. Most of my south army should be used for offensive operations.
Possible soviet plans: Soviet breakthrough possible at Petropavlovka, but I won’t really repulse it, only slow down, except it is against my reinforcement hexes in the south. Kharkov will be target, I will let surround it (there is supply point in it), but should be defended. If I m lucky (and no breakthrough) I can send reinforcement from Dnepropetrovsk or Poltava.
Smaller villages will be target too:
Belgorod, Lyptsy, Taranovka, which will raise the soviet player replacement level, but Kharkov is the first priority in that region.

Actions

Turn 1:
When I got JAMiAM’s first turn I was really surprised. Around and south of Semenovka, most of my forces disappeared. Practically no units remained to slow down the breakthrough. I had to use most of my reserves (from the north (near Akhtyrka) and from Dnepropetrovsk) to seal the big gap. May be seal is too strong, only slowing down the enemy. Kharkov was under heavy pressure, but I thought Kharkov could resist it for 5-6 turns (the reinforcement will change the situation then). Some reserve units were directed here.
My Rumanian forces are almost disappeared, so no need the heavy defense of the north of Pavlograd. Most of my reserve forces around Pavlograd can be redirected to the south region. Only a unit was assigned to help the remaining Rumanian to slow down the Soviet heading Dnepropetrovsk.
Anyway he bombed some bridge on my supply line, but it was not really serious, and I think does not worth to make it again (of course I let him know :)
A surprising counter-attack was really planned near Kharkov at Chuguyev which can seriously make trouble at the enemy. Locally this attack could be successful, but Kharkov would be at risk, so the plan was cancelled.
Some local counter-attack launched, but nothing serious plan behind them. Mostly digging in, and moving the reserves.

Turn 2:
The breakthrough around Semenovka. The soviet forces are rushing to the west.
Rumanian forces were not withdrawn (lucky thing), but they were useless (only moving accelerators, because no disengagement penalty, if I am right).
Kharkov region is serious but the planned 4-5 turns can be done.
In the south heavy but maintainable.
Belgorod helpless, so my plan is to tie down soviet forces here, in the mountains.
A surprising small counter-attack was planned between Belgorod and Kharkov with one unit, because it is looked like a gap in the Soviet line here. As I planned these surprising movements help me to countermeasure JAMiAM’s (now proved) tactical superiority. It was a small step, but there was no other spare unit.
In this turn I learned JAMiAM’s some trick, so I could make more rounds, and more casualty on the enemy side, his tactical superiority is 2:1 and not 3:1 as in the beginning :)

Turn 3:
He cannot breakthrough to my reinforcement hexes, so I am a little bit more confident. I can do anything but my (first chunk of) reinforcement will arrive.
In this situation I planned some counter-attack at Petropavlovka, which was not really bad.
Poltava, and Dnepropetrovsk are safe now, and the reinforcement hexes at the south are secured. Kharkov is really problematic place, and I am not sure if I can send reinforcement, because Poltava is under pressure too, and Dnepropetrovsk too far from Kharkov.
My surprising small counter-attack was checked (he had reserve nearby). So my unit had only one task is to tie down some enemy units.

Turn 4:
My first reinforcements are arrived (of course JAMiAM bombarded them :(
Situation is not really changed but the pressure are heavier in every sector.
Around Kharkov the fights are still heavy. Turn by turn he is getting closer and closer to the city.
Preparing the worst my first defense line is at Poltava. I don’t want to see any surprising bypass around my forces. Krasnograd (gate of Poltava) is defended only by a small forces. Later this town will write the HISTORY.
Dnepropetrovsk is in good shape now, but the Soviet forces pushing very much.
In the south I plan two attack. One of them is in the direction of Petropavlovka to lift the pressure of Dnepropetrovsk (and use my reinforcement there), and if I have time to break in deeper, to lift the pressure of Poltava. The other attack direction is a direct attack in the direction of Izyum. This attack can bring victory, or if Kharkov would be fallen can save my draw in the game.

Turn 5:
As new reinforcement is arrived again a little bit more confident I start to move my forces from Poltava to Krasnograd (the brave city).
I think Kharkov will be lost so I have to start my attack as soon as I can from the south. Most of JAMiAM’s forces in the south are in 100% entrenchment. Hmmm, that will be hard!
Not much changes elsewhere.

Turn 6:
Some new tactic helped me to push away some unit from Kharkov, but that was my last attempt.
In the south JAMiAM started some counter-attack and that was a really surprising. I don’t have much turn and I don’t have much time to build up defense, I have to attack! But these counter-attack really slowed me down!

From now there is no need a turn by turn description. On turn 7 practically Kharkov was captured (my units was routed). Turn 9 around Belgorod was cleared. At turn 8 a small JAMiAM unit incidentally captured Poltava, but it was recaptured in the next turn. The brave city Krasnograd was captured by soviet forces in the turn 12 which helped me to secure Poltava. If this city not hold up so long Poltava would be in risk. I had to buy time to my reinforcements from Dnepropetrovsk arrive in Poltava. In the south it was a really sitzkrieg (short turns, every attack was repulsed), only at the turn 14 I was closed to the breakthrough, but JAMiAM can check them easily for few turns. Around Poltava a lot of soviet units gathered, so few more turns and I could not be sure of it.

Summary
About my opponent: too good on tactical level :) , he proved his place on the ladder. Next time a bigger scenario I will try with him, to see his operational level, and strategic level knowledge.

About the scenario: it is a very good scenario to check your tactical level. There is not really space for operational level decision, but if the players more balanced in knowledge, maybe the situation different. I think the scenario is well balanced, but the first turn of JAMiAM shows, it can be changed quickly. I think the Soviet has not really chance to achieve OV generally, and I don’t know the Axis side.

About our game:
I loved it, I needed it! But next time I will win! :)


Comment from JAMiAM:

Great stuff. I do have one minor disagreement. In your opponent section of the BAA, you mention some post of mine (May 15th) where I claimed to not be adept at grand strategy. I think you may have misinterpreted. I am a notorious micromanager, but not at the expense of grand strategy. No need to change the AAR, as it shows your assumption in action. Necessarily, your play was colored by such prior assumptions (as all of our games, when we first play a new opponent). So, it is important to leave in there.
Maybe just footnote my response...;^)

Oh, and as far as I can tell, the supposed replacement boosts for the Soviets that the scenario notes claim for the capture of those three towns do not work. If I read the editor correctly, they are referencing the wrong force number in either the trigger event, or the replacement multiplier event. Likewise there is a problem with the supposed loss of supply on the capture of Poltava, and Dnepropetrovsk. The editor values for supply loss are 50 for each of these. However, I believe the designer didn't realize that the loss should be integer value for supply, rather than a percent of previous amount. Thus, a loss of "50" is impossible, due the beginning supply rate being only 20. I look forward to seeing this on WHQ!

Best regards,
James



Statistics

Turn, Force supply level (Axis), Enemy victory points - loss penalty, Friendly victory points – loss penalty, Victory level, Axis units in the theatre (from which was reinforcement)
1 21 180-22 310-21 MV 177
2 21 240-29 250-30 D 163
3 22 240-35 250-38 D 163
4 22 270-36 220-43 D 169 (19)
5 22 280-41 210-55 D 205 (36)
6 22 280-59 210-63 D 226 (9)
7 (forgot to save, it was recontructed from Jamiam file)
? 290-45 200-57 D ?
8 24 410-55 80-67 OD 203
9 24 370-56 120-74 SD 183
10 4 370-57 120-74 SD 180
11 4 370-58 120-75 SD 176
12 5 380-55 110-73 SD 176
13 4 380-56 110-73 SD 173
14 4 380-60 110-76 SD 173

JAMiAM
16 Jun 03, 16:53
I suppose that in the interest of fairness, I should throw out a few comments, as well. Certainly nothing as in-depth as Laszlo's fine work, though.

Kharkov '42 from the CoW disk is a fairly balanced scenario, that IMO slightly favors the Axis player. To offset that bias, the Soviet player should be the stronger of the two players, if possible.

To counter the bias, the Soviet player must make full use of his initial advantages in strength, deployment, and interior lines to force the Axis player onto the defensive, and keep him there, responding to your thrusts and threats, for as long as possible. As Laszlo notes, there are no Soviet reinforcements, yet substantial German forces come onto the board from turn 4 on. You want to have him using those forces to plug holes you're blowing in his lines, rather than concentrating for the counterattack against you.

The Axis are initially deployed in a variety of mobile, tactical reserve, entrenched and fortified positions, with the common factor being that all units are in minimize loss settings. Use this fact to your advantage. Make sure that you're attempting to retreat before combat (overrun) the Rumanians to tear open that section of the front. Set your own forces to ignore losses, so that you're more likely to force the retreat, and to advance in after combats where the enemy doesn't run. Set your artillery to tactical reserve mode, after moving it adjacent to the enemy stacks that you will be attacking, but do not overload the hexes. You don't want unnecessary losses from hex density penalties. the reason for moving them adjacent, at least on the offensive, is that many of the equipment pieces in the artillery units only have a one hex range. You want them to contribute fully to the primary axes of attack.

The first turn, you should concentrate on destroying, routing and retreating all that you can of the Axis. A competent player will adjust all of his units to ignore losses, and dig in wherever possible, and you're not going to have a better chance than this turn to create that wonderful sense of panic.

...more to follow...

JAMiAM
16 Jun 03, 18:16
...continued...

As Laszlo rightly notes, Kharkov is the key to victory in this scenario. Though, at first blush, it seems that the Axis player has the advantage of interior lines in this sector, it is misleading. There are no North-South railways on the Aixs side of the lines with which to facilitate the movement of reinforcements and reserves. Thus, barring a long, possibly delayed and wasted march, the Axis reinforcements will likely be forced to respond piecemeal to the sectors in which they arrive.

The German reinforcements that arrive near Poltava can be delayed substantially by the blowing of the rail bridge in (2,16) and those from Dnepropetrovsk, by blowing the bridge in (8,33). Allocate all of your bomber units to first one, then the other bridge on the first two attacks of turn one. Set all the bombers to ignore losses on these attacks, so that they are less likely to be driven off by German fighters. Make sure your own fighters are in AS missions. Even though the Germans will get the best of the battles, you should be able to get both bridges blown the first turn, barring any poor weather over the target hexes.

A quick aside...the loss tolerance setting for bombers on bridge blowing missions does not affect the number of rounds needed to prosecute the bridge attack. It will, however, affect whether the bombers do get through to the target. The success percentages are additive, for each of the units making it through to the target. Bad weather over the target hex, the last couple of hexes of range of the units, and super river status can all drastically reduce the nominal probabilities. That is why you should NOT even bother trying to bomb the super river bridge over the Dnepr.

Anyway...the Soviets actually have the advantage of interior lines in this scenario, though the paltry rail capacity makes it difficult to move much at a time in the Izyum bulge. You may have to split some of the divisions into pieces (thirds work good) and send them over the course of two turns in order to make maximum use of your capacity.

The Axis, of course, can respond to this by some of their own bridge bombing, but make use of the asset, while it's available. Even later on, you can shift between Kharkov and the southern flank (the most dangerous spot for you, if/when the Germans counterattack) fairly easily, by road, with fast cavalry and tanks and by rail with the dog tired and slothly infantry divisions.

You will note that supplies will be drained from your units in no time at all. Do not worry about this. This is a Doug Bevard design, and his scenarios are notorious for being ridiculously low on supply rates. Just keep in mind that you will be forcing the same conditions on your opponent. It will be proficiency and support assets that will make, or break, the game for you.

You have some excellent tank brigades at this stage of the war. Many of them have equal proficiency, to the best of the Germans. Also, your T-34/76's and KV-1's are far superior to the average German tanks of the day. Do not be afraid to engage the German tanks. Also, do not be afraid to use the tank brigades as shock troops to soften the Axis lines (supported by artillery, of course). Especially after the first few turns of the game, they (and the cavalry) will be the only units that can attack and advance without expending a significant amount of the movement rate, thus allowing multiple attacks to continue into the later game.

At some point in time, you will have to decide whether you can continue to push offensively against the Germans, or to hunker down and prepare for the German counter thrust. You may need to make separate decisions on the various portions of the front, dependent upon your initial and continuing success. Whenever on the defense, dig early, dig deep, ignore losses, have artillery behind the lines, likewise dug in and supporting all portions of the line. Getting a feel for your opponent, is crucial in helping your correct assessment of when and where you should make these shifts. I noted early in the game that Laszlo was an aggressive player, so this shaped some of my later decisions

In my game against Laszlo, I was able to maintain forward momentum from the top of the map to with a few hexes of the Dnepr river. In the South, I chose to early on go to the defense, so that my troops would be as rested, and stuffed full of replacements as possible when his counterattack came. I was able to chift some reserves south from the successful battles around Kharkov to give me sufficient reserves to deal with the couple of times that he was able to cause significant damage to my lines. Quick and forceful counterattacks restored my lines each time he pried them open.

Had the game gone on much longer, he would have been able to work over my southern flank with better success but, in return, I would have taken Poltava. A very enjoyable game.

Edited to add a crucially missing NOT ... D'oh!

laszlo.nemedi
18 Jun 03, 12:55
The attachment in the end of my AAR is the images of the game turn by turn...
:o